Has Ketel Marte Been More Valuable than Shohei Ohtani?

The Diamondbacks All-Star second baseman is having an MVP-caliber season. We dive into the question of whether he's been more valuable than the Dodgers Designated Hitter.

Jul 14, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks second base Ketel Marte (4) runs the bases after hitting a grand slam home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Ketel Marte is having an MVP caliber season and is certainly in the conversation as one of the leading candidates for that award 95 games into the season. That should be a non-controversial statement. He's very much earned his starting spot on the NL All-Star roster, and will be the leadoff batter when the game starts at 5:00 P.M. MST tonight.

Marte ranks second in the league in WAR according to Baseball-Reference, with 4.9. He's batting .292/.362/.515, .877 OPS with 19 homers, 64 runs, and 57 RBI. He's playing Gold Glove caliber defense at second base with +11 defensive runs saved, and is third in the league in Defensive WAR with 1.4.

There is no denying Shohei Ohtani, who is just decimal points ahead of Marte with 5.4 WAR, has the superior offensive numbers. He's batting .316 with 29 homers and 69 RBI. In any season where he is both pitching and hitting, there simply is no more valuable player in the league. But Ohtani is not pitching in 2024. He doesn't even play the field. He's a DH.

There is a factor to be considered that far outweighs the small 0.5 WAR difference between Ohtani and Marte:

Impact on Their Team's Position in the Standings.

Simply put, if the Dodgers had a replacement level player taking Ohtani's spot on the roster they'd be five games worse than their current 56-41, but still be in first place in the NL West with a 51-46 record.

The Diamondbacks without Marte on the other hand, would be a disaster and sellers at the trade deadline. Instead of being 49-48 and just a game out of the Wild Card, they'd be in 13th place in the National League with a 44-53 record, 6.0 games out of the Wild Card with eight teams in front of them.

Another way to illustrate just how valuable Marte is in the context of his team's win-loss record, is looking at his WAR as a percentage of the team's total WAR. Marte has produced 25% of the Diamondbacks' WAR. That's the highest percentage of any player on a contending team.

Ohtani has produced 19% of the Dodgers WAR. Another player that many will consider part of the MVP conversation, Bryce Harper, has produced just 11% of the Phillies' WAR.

NL Top Players WAR as Percentage of Team WAR / Jack Sommers

When viewed this way, it's clear that Marte is by far the most important player to his team among the contending teams. (The Rockies and Marlins are out of the playoff races and would be in last place with or without those team's best players).

It should be noted there is plenty of precedent for this approach in the voting habits of the BBWAA. In fact it's in the very first point in the instructions to voters that are on the ballots they receive:

The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931:

1.  Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.

2.  Number of games played.

3.  General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.

4.  Former winners are eligible.

5.  Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

Of course MVP awards are not voted on until the very end of the season. There are still 67 games to be played. The above arguments are not meant to be the last word on the issue. Marte will need to keep up this pace for the remainder of the season, and the D-backs will need to make the playoffs for his case to be strong enough to have any chance with the voters.

In reality, Ohtani is the best baseball player on the planet, and has a narrative that is almost impossible to beat. But it's also reality that he's only a DH this year and the Dodgers are still a first place team without him. The marketing factors and media buzz he generates should not factor into a performance award.

Without Marte the D-backs are fighting with the Rockies to stay out of the NL West basement. With mere decimal points separating these two players in WAR, these relative value factors should be considered by voters.

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