Is Geraldo Perdomo Able to Stay the Reliable Workhorse in Infield?

Continuing our series of Arizona Diamondbacks player reviews, captain of the defense Geraldo Perdomo is up next. The projection below is a composite of ZiPS and Steamer projections, prorated to our playing time projection.
Geraldo Perdomo, Switch-Hitter, Shortstop, Age 25
Geraldo Perdomo is entering his first arbitration year in which he agreed to a deal with Arizona for $2.55 MM to avoid the dreaded arbitration court hearing. He will go through arbitration twice more and if he can experience plenty of success, he could make quite a bit of money.
Why Perdomo may outperform the projection
Perdomo, despite missing multiple months last year, had a standout season that saw him reach 2.75 aWAR. (aWAR = the average of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference WAR) He played in just 98 games but put up that kind of WAR thanks to his defense and a surprisingly high batting average of .273. This helped him have an OPS of .718.
Of course, the high walk rate of 9.3% while striking out just 14.9% were key factors to him having a slightly above-average 101 OPS+.
His chase percentage was just 19.3%, in the 96th percentile last year. His whiff rate of 12.2% was in the 98th percentile while his strikeout rate was 90th percentile.
None of those numbers are new as he's been dominant in that realm of offense for the past couple of seasons. Thus, it would not be a shock to see him have walk and strikeout rates as good or better than the chart above.
In fact, his strikeout rate has dropped six percent over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, his walk rate is 11% across his whole career. In a full 2023 season, he walked 12.9% of the time.
Perdomo was excellent against left-handed pitching, hitting .318 against them last year. With a full season this year, if he can come near that average again over the 60-70 starts against left-handers, his batting average will see quite a boost.
The .699 OPS is likely going to be tough for Perdomo to exceed although the chance for him to have a full season of doubles with the occasional triple and home run could be enough to lift his slugging rate to get him an OPS in the .700s.
After all, he has had an OPS above .700 each of the last two seasons. If he can maintain the batting average from last year or close to it, then perhaps he could clear .700 with ease.
One other upside is that despite a woeful hardhit rate of 25.8% last year, that was over 6% better than 2023 when he was an All-Star shortstop. So, if he could raise the hard-hit rate slightly, he should experience at least a modicum of increase to his power output.
Why Perdomo might underperform the projection
Perdomo just doesn't hit the ball very hard or far. That is an issue that can weigh down his potential as he relies on a high BABIP, luck, and clutch hitting.
All three of those things can shift rapidly from year to year if one doesn't have the ability to drive the ball far and hard past defenders to make plays tough.
He's slugged just .328 in his three full seasons. He only has 14 career homers. As mentioned above, his hard hit rate is quite low. His barrel percentage of 3.1% is in the sixth percentile.
Thanks to the kind of contact he's made, his expected batting average of .231 last year was in the 24th percentile. Which means that he might've been quite lucky to hit .273. Luck like that can fade at any time as there's almost always regression to the mean, whether positively or negatively.
Perdomo's average exit velocity is just 87 MPH and that's in the 14th percentile. He simply just doesn't hit the ball hard, not to where one could foresee plenty of doubles, triples, or homers to lift his OPS, slug, or average high enough.
His BABIP could be unsustainable from last year. Last year it was .317, but in 2023, it was .295. In 2022, when he struggled badly, it was .243. A high BABIP can certainly be due to luck, but also contact, hard hit rate, and other factors.
Perdomo makes plenty of contact and putting more balls in play will always help one to pick up a few extra hits. On the flip side, not hitting the ball hard enough can drop your BABIP. Then, there's the luck aspect where there's just the matter of what happens once the ball leaves your bat and where the defender's are positioned.
So far, Perdomo has hit the ball where the defenders aren't and has stayed relatively lucky. How long can that keep up? The other issue is if he can he maintain being an elite hitter in clutch situations.
Last year, with runners in scoring position, he hit .287 with an OPS of .735. When there were no runners on base, he hit just .260 with an OPS of .696.
Will he be able to stay so productive with players on base that can help provide a stable enough floor for him to meet his projections? Only time will tell.
Summary
Perdomo is a talented shortstop that has a bright future with the Diamondbacks. He hits well with runners on base, he doesn't strike out, he walks plenty, and he is starting to hit the ball harder. Perdomo has good defense to rely upon and should continue to see plenty of chances to hit with runners on base in the future.
On the flipside, he does not hit the ball hard and hasn't his whole career. He relied on a high BABIP last year and the potential is there for that to bottom out and see him come down to his 2022 levels. The lack of hard contact can weigh down his OPS and WAR.
2025 is a major season for Perdomo as he can quickly increase his compensation in arbitration with a big year or see himself get replaced by Jordan Lawlar come 2026.