Is Jordan Montgomery's Trade Value Going Up?

Recent free agent signings of Frankie Montas and Matthew Boyd may help the Diamondbacks in their quest to offload a large portion of Jordan Montgomery's contract

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery (52) gestures before throwing to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second inning at Chase Field in Phoenix on May 1, 2024. / Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Arizona Diamondbacks are presumed to be shopping Jordan Montgomery, hoping to offload some of his hefty $22.5 million contract this offseason. In our Offseason Plan article we proposed the Diamondbacks trade Montgomery if they're able to have their trade partner assume half of Montgomery's contract, or roughly $11 million.

Whether or not they're able to do so remains to be seen, but recent free agent activity over the weekend might hint the chances have gone up, and perhaps they might even be able to have the other team absorb more than my proposed amount.

The New York Mets have signed right-hand starting pitcher Frankie Montas to a two year, $34 million dollar contract. This is well above estimates provided by MLB Trade Rumors and Fangraphs crowd-sourced estimates, which had estimates between $22-26 million on a two year deal.

Meanwhile the Chicago Cubs have signed lefty Matthew Boyd to a two year, $29 million contract. This again is above estimates, which ranged between $18-25 million for two years.

Some of this may simply be contract inflation. But it also may be a result of those teams analyzing pitchers in different ways than we have seen over the last 10-15 years. That said, the following comparisons between Montgomery, Montas, and Boyd are instructive.

2024

Jordan Montgomery compared to Matthew Boyd and Frankie Montas for 2024 / Jack Sommers

Boyd has missed significant time with elbow injuries since 2021, ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery mid-summer 2023. He did not return until August 13, 2024, but pitched extremely well for the Cleveland Guardians once he did.

Montas was signed by the Cincinnati Reds for 2024, but was traded to the Brewers on July 30. He had an uptick in velocity and underlying metrics, and in fact had better results after the trade as well. But the full season averages were still mediocre.

Montgomery had a disaster season of course, and his strikeout rate cratered. His peripherals were significantly better than his ERA however, and similar to Montas'.

Three Year Averages 2022-2024

Jordan Montgomery 3 year comparison to Mathew Boyd and Frankie Montas / Jack Sommers

Looking at the three year averages here, they are almost identical. Montas missed all but the last game of 2023 due to shoulder surgery. Thus his total innings over the last three years are lower than Montgomery's, who has been relatively healthy in recent years (Montgomery did miss several weeks due to a knee injury in 2024). Boyd has thrown precious few innings over the last three seasons.

Montgomery has the lower strikeout rates, but superior walk and home run rates.

Steamer 2025 Projections

Jordan Montgomery's Steamer Projections compared to Matthew Boyd and Frankie Montas / Jack Sommers

Note that Boyd is entering his age 34 season, while Montas and Montgomery are both heading into their age 32 seasons. These projections are largely a function of the three year averages, although the more recent year is weighted most heavily. The projections are also very close when it comes to rate statistic results, again with almost identical ERA, FIP and xFIP.

The low innings projections for Montgomery is due to Steamer projecting him to spend time in the bullpen, like he did in 2024.

Summary

Jordan Montgomery was a respected veteran with a good track record coming off a World Series title with the Texas Rangers when the Diamondbacks signed him. He had a bad year, for multiple reasons. He may not have been in great shape. Missing spring training might have affected him. Perhaps the heavy innings workload of 2023 was a factor.

It's hard to imagine that if he were a free agent today, he would not get at least a one year deal worth over $10 million. Especially in the context of the early market setting done by the Mets and Cubs.

Expect Montgomery to be dealt, and expect the Diamondbacks to get significant salary relief.