Is Josh Naylor Set for Another Career Year in 2025?
Josh Naylor is next man up in our series reviewing the projections for each member of the Arizona Diamondbacks 40-man roster, as well as select prospects and non-roster invitees.
The projection is comprised of the composite average of ZiPS and Steamer rate statistics, which can be found on FanGraphs. The playing time projections were estimated by Jack Sommers.
Josh Naylor, First Baseman, Age 27
Josh Naylor was acquired by the Arizona Diamondbacks on December 21 in a deal with the Cleveland Guardians. His addition worked to fill a hole left by departing franchise cornerstone Christian Walker, and adds Naylor to a strong position player core.
The lefty-hitting first baseman has put up impressive power numbers throughout his career, belting 84 career home runs at only 27 years old. His journey has taken him from the Marlins where he was drafted, to the Padres where he would make his debut. He was later dealt to Cleveland where he blossomed into one of MLB's best corner infielders.
Related Content: Josh Naylor's Path to the Diamondbacks
Now with Arizona, Naylor will join an already strong lineup which led MLB in runs scored. Coming off a strong year, how do projections view the first baseman going into 2025?
Why Naylor could outperform projections
Naylor has solidified himself as one of the better offensive first baseman in baseball over the last three seasons. Over that span he has not posted an OPS+ below 117, and is coming off his best power hitting season.
While the lefty is projected to hit a very solid 25 home runs next season, he is coming off a year where he slugged a career-high 31-round trippers. It may be difficult to hit that milestone again, due to Chase Field being a tough park to homer in (7th toughest in MLB). He may see an uptick in doubles, however, as the sharp corners inflate extra base hits.
His solid approach and good lineup protection will see Naylor getting better pitches to hit than in previous seasons. Projections view his strikeout rates very favorably, a rebound to his 2023 form could take this area of his game to the next level.
While sluggers like Naylor don't generally profile well with strikeout rates, he has done a fantastic job in recent seasons in limiting strikeouts in his game. Projected for a 15.9% strikeout rate, he is set for another season of well above average bat to ball skills.
The league average strikeout rate sits at 22.6%, and while the projections may already seem favorable, it isn't unrealistic that the lefty could outperform these numbers. In 2023 Naylor batted to a 13.7% strikeout rate in 495 plate appearances. A rebound to this form is certainly in the cards, now another year removed from a dramatic ankle injury.
Why Naylor could underperform projections
While Naylor's strikeout rates are well above average, his walk rate is projected to be almost exactly average at 8.3%. In 2024 this number was a better 9.2% but across his career the lefty hasn't taken many walks. In 2022 and 2023 Naylor's BB% has sat at only 7.6 and 6.7% respectively.
Another career high in 2024 for Josh Naylor was plate appearances. Finally healthy after an injury shortened 2023, he posted in 152 games, and 633 plate appearances. This was a large leap from his previous career high in 2022 at only 495 PA's.
Naylor will get the vast majority of playing time at first base, and is projected for a solid 593 plate appearances. But the team may be looking to limit his at bats against left-hand pitching before too long, depending on future roster moves they make. Naylor hit just .224 with a .715 OPS against lefties in 2024, and for his career has been a .236 hitter with a .673 OPS.
Summary
Naylor was a solid acquisition by Mike Hazen and the Diamondbacks' front office. Not only does his energy match the club's good vibes from past years, but his bat will slot in very nicely. He has proven himself to be a strong power bat, and could easily beat the projections that have been set for him.