Is Randal Grichuk Poised to Pick Up Where He Left Off?

Grichuk should be a lethal bat against left-handed pitchers but can he hit right-handed pitching?

Jul 9, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Randal Grichuk against the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Continuing our series of Arizona Diamondbacks player reviews, recent signee Randal Grichuk is up. The outfielder/DH should see a sizable role this year. The projection below is a composite of ZiPS and Steamer projections, prorated to our playing time projection.

Randal Grichuk, Outfielder/DH, Age: 33

Randal Grichuk re-signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday afternoon on a one-year deal with a mutual option. GM Mike Hazen confirmed to reporters that Grichuk is expected to have a similar role as last year when he played in the outfield and at DH along with pinch-hitting.

Although he played in the outfield for 60% of his plate appearances, it could become closer to 50-50 between the outfield and DH thanks to the presence of Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy being healthy and on the roster.

Randal Grichuk 2024 stats with the Arizona Diamondbacks plus his career stats and 2025 projections / Jake Oliver

Why Grichuk may outperform the projection

One of the reasons that Grichuk had what was close to a career year at the plate and a 139 wRC+ was due to the team shielding him from facing right-handers for much of the season. That's the plan again this year which should allow Grichuk to get plenty of hits against left-handed pitching.

Over his last four years, Grichuk has walked 6.7% and struck out 17.2% of the time against left-handed pitching. Meanwhile, he's hit for a .301 average and had an OPS of .893. His ISO power is a strong .242. His wRC+ is 137, 100 is league average.

Also, an amazing stat in which since 2022, his slugging rate of .573 against left-handers is sixth in majors with players that have at least 400 plate appearances. That puts him in company with Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Yordan Alvarez, Austin Riley, and William Contreras.

If he gets close to 66% of at-bats as he did this past year against left-handed pitching, that is plenty to help prop him up against any potential struggles against right-handed pitching. Grichuk has never played in a platoon full-time prior to last season.

Thus, it's hard to say how he will do in a second season in a platoon. However, there's not much in the stats to doubt him from having a season that can top these projections.

He hasn't hit fewer than 12 home runs since 2014 and that includes the shortened 2020 season. 2014 was his rookie season. He barrelled balls up at 11% rate, highest since 2020. 3.9% higher than 2023.

His hard hit rate has climbed significantly every year since 2020 and reached last year at 47.6%. Meanwhile, his expected slug rate of .483 was his best since 2018 and continued it's upward trend. Perhaps best, his xwOBA of .359 was a career-best

Among NL batters hitting against left-handers with a minimum of 100 games, Grichuk ranked in OPS (5th, .913), SLG (7th, .528) and AVG (8th, .319).

He excelled with runners in scoring position, a factor that will be critical this year with another potent lineup that should give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. Last year, he batted .324 with an OPS of 1.051 with six doubles, six home runs, 36 RBI, and 10 walks.

Why Grichuk might underperform the projection

There's two things that could cause Grichuk to underperform this year aside from an injury arising. Someone else gets injured and he's forced to play more against right-handed pitching, and he's struggled in recent years aside from 2024 against right-handers.

Also, he needed a massive month of September to raise his stats.

Over the last four years against right-handed pitching, Grichuk has walked just 4.8% of the time while striking out an above-average rate of 22.9%. He's hit just .239 with an OPS of .680. His power dropped off with only a .159 ISO. Plus, his wRC+ is a staggeringly low 78.

Should he be forced to see 50% or more of his plate appearances come against right-handers, he could easily underwhelm and see him go beneath his low projections.

One can't reasonably expect him to redo his excellent 2024 against right-handers when he hit .242 and had an OPS of .801 thanks to a .528 slug rate. Not when his career says the opposite, but perhaps thanks to limited appearances, he could come close.

The other factor is that he can't be expected to replicate this past September. Through August 31 last year, he he had a good 108 wRC+. Still better than these projections, but not the otherworldly September.

Over 51 plate appearances in September, he hit .404 with a 1.408 OPS and had seven home runs. His wRC+ was an absurd 278. That rose his season-long wRC+ from 108 to 139. That can't reasonably be expected to happen again in any month this season. If it does, it's a happy surprise.

Summary

Randal Grichuk is a proven MLB-caliber hitter and player. He's an elite power-threat against left-handed pitching and has a lengthy track record of being among the best hitters against lefties in MLB.

Grichuk is set up to succeed with the majority of his reps coming with the platoon advantage and in a potent offense, should see plenty of chances to do damage and drive in runs.

He knows how to get on base or drive the ball far. He's got proven power against right-handed pitchers but has struggled against them in recent years aside from 2024. However, should he be forced to hit more against right-handers, his numbers could very well dip and see a slump occur.

Despite a standout year against right-handers last season, it's likely that was not the norm to be expected from now on. Nor was his excellent September in which he dominated opposing pitchers of either-handedness.

That can't be expected to happen again, especially consistently. However, he should be able to be a consistent power threat and great hitter that provides plenty of value for the Diamondbacks.

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