Josh Naylor's Path to the Arizona Diamondbacks

Everything you need to know on Josh Naylor's path through the big leagues.

Oct 10, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Cleveland Guardians first base Josh Naylor (22) hits a single in the third inning against the Detroit Tigers during game four of the ALDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

It was revealed on Saturday, December 21 that the Arizona Diamondbacks were acquiring first baseman Josh Naylor from the Cleveland Guardians. This move marks the club's first marquee roster move of the off-season.

Naylor is a talented player, coming off a career season in Ohio, but how did this power hitter from north of the border find his way to the desert?

Joshua-Douglas James Naylor was born in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada. Toronto's sister city is home to a growing baseball community which helped the future star thrive. There he found his love for the game, going on to join the Canadian Junior National Baseball Team at only age 15.

It was clear very early on that Naylor was on an MLB trajectory, eventually being taken with the #12 overall selection in the 2015 MLB draft by the Miami Marlins.

Naylor hit 10 home runs in the Marlins' system in 114 games between 2015 and 2016. Mid-season, Naylor appeared in the All-Star futures game, but didn't stick around in Miami much longer.

On July 29, 2016 the Marlins traded Josh Naylor to the Padres, in a deal that also sent Carter Capps, Luis Castillo, and Jared Cosart to San Diego.

Here Naylor found his stride, hitting .264 with 12 home runs with Lake Elsinore, and quickly working his way through the Padres farm system. He was finding his swing, and developing into one of the most exciting prospects in San Diego's system.

Naylor was called up to the majors on May 24th, 2019 to debut close to home against the Blue Jays.

He didn't have the smoothest landing in the majors, with a -0.2 WAR in his rookie season, and a 90 wRC+, but the power still showed signs of life. In 94 games he mashed 8 home runs, showing signs of what was to come for the young first baseman.

An early concern with Naylor was his strikeout rate. In 2019 he had a 22.9% K rate compared to a 9% walk rate. His BABIP was also at .302 while only fielding a .249 batting average, raising a couple of red flags.

The Padres moved off of Naylor during the 2020 season, sending him to Cleveland in a package deal that brought Matt Waldron, Mike Clevinger, and Greg Allen to San Diego.

This, with time, would be exactly what the lefty first baseman needed to finally break out.

2021 was another limited season for Naylor, only playing in 69 games, but he managed to lower his strikeout rate to 18%, and for the first time in his career pushed his WAR total on the season into the positive.

The Josh Naylor we know now was unleashed in Cleveland, and 2022 saw things come to a head. He played 122 games for the Guardians, posting a .256 batting average, with a .771 OPS. His OPS+ rose to a 121 after having never surpassed 100 in a non-shortened season.

The big improvement was the power. He has finally tapped into his raw slug, launching 20 home runs. This also came with an additional cut to Naylor's strikeout rate, falling to 16% in 2022 and the walk rate rising to 7.6%.

Naylor was blossoming into a great first baseman and an even better hitter. Then came a dramatic injury. A collision amid an excellent 2023 campaign, on track to surpass even the heights of his 2022 season was cut short when Naylor broke and dislocated his ankle while attempting to field a popup.

It ended his season, cutting him short at only 121 games played, but once again, he had shown that he was developing strongly. Some players never recover from an injury as bad as Naylor's, but he persevered, coming back stronger in 2024.

This time around no injury would hold him back, finally managing to stay on the field for 152 games. Naylor crushed a career high 31 home runs, and tied his 2022 mark with a 118 wRc+, this time with a much larger sample.

Naylor's walk rate jumped to over 9%, helping him to a .320 OBP, with strikeouts sticking to a reasonable 16%.

The drawbacks came on defense. Naylor had previously been a stellar defender in 2022 and 2023, with +3 OAA, and +5 OAA respectively, placing him near the 90th percentile in first baseman defense in those seasons. 2024 flipped that, relegating him to +0 OAA and ranking him in the 61st percentile of defenders.

Part of this regression could easily be attributed to an ankle injury which may have hampered his movement, but at only age 27, defensive regression from a large-in-stature player is something to be wary of.

After finishing his year in Cleveland, the writing was on the wall for Naylor to be traded. He is in his final season of control before Free Agency, and his arbitration price would weigh on the Guardians' ability to make other moves.

The Arizona Diamondbacks swooped in and made a deal for the 27-year-old lefty, bringing him to the valley where he will join one of the best offenses in baseball. He will play a big role in the club's playoff push in 2025, as they try to capitalize on their window of contention.

Arizona led MLB in runs scored in 2024, and they are adding a new look to the lineup. With the departures of players like Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, and Randal Grichuk, this is likely only the first of many moves made by Mike Hazen and the Diamondbacks' front office this winter.

For more on Free Agency, and for all things D-backs, make sure to stay locked in to Arizona Diamondbacks ON SI as we provide breakdowns and detailed analysis.

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