Looking Ahead to the Arizona Diamondbacks 2026 Payroll Crunch

With multiple veteran free agents scheduled to depart heading into 2026, we examine what resources the D-backs have to replace them and how that informs the importance of a Postseason run in 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen talks to manager Torey Lovullo during spring training workouts at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale on Feb. 17, 2023. / Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Here at Arizona Diamondbacks ON SI we like to keep a close eye on the team's payroll situation. After all, that dictates much of how the team builds out their roster, and understanding that allows us to better understand, and even anticipate future team direction.

Regular readers of this site will already be familiar with projected numbers for 2025. The team's current payroll commit is approximately $155 million, and they are expected to have about $17-22 million left in their budget before hitting the same level as 2024's franchise record payroll.

Related Content: Where do D-backs stand with 2025 Payroll and Remaining Holes to Fill?

While the team is focused on 2025, and Mike Hazen has made it clear his intent is to field a playoff caliber team, financial decisions are not made in the vacuum of just the next upcoming season. Just like any other business, MLB teams must look past the immediate horizon when planning their payroll budgets.

Topline Breakout

D-backs 2026 Payroll Commit as of 12/26/2024 / Jack Sommers

The Diamondbacks have five players who will be free agents following the 2025 season: Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, Zac Gallen, Josh Naylor and Merrill Kelly. Those 5 players add up to $70.6 million coming off the books.

The remaining four players signed to guaranteed contracts for 2026 are Eduardo Rodriguez, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Corbin Carroll. Gurriel has an opt-out clause that allows him to become a free agent following the 2025 season if he so desires. That could possibly be another $13 million coming off the books as well then.

With so much potential money coming off the books it may seem like the D-backs' budget is in great shape, but there are two factors that must be considered.

The first is there are 14 players currently on the 40-man roster that will be arbitration eligible in 2026. Those escalating arbitration costs are about 10% higher than estimated $40 million for arbitration eligible player they must pay in 2025.

The second, much bigger issue, is that most of the players becoming free agents are all major contributors to the team. Their production will be difficult to replace for the same amount or less coming off the books.

Zac Gallen, who is a Scott Boras client, is likely looking at a minimum of six years, $150 million, or $25 million average annual. If he has a great season in 2025, he could earn over $30 million in today's market.

Merrill Kelly is a steal at his $7 million contract for 2025. If he is healthy and past his shoulder issues from 2024 and makes 25-30 starts, he is going to earn at least double that in 2026.

The importance of these two starting pitchers to the Diamondbacks success cannot be overstated. As of today, there are no clear cut internal replacements that can match what they achieved for the team in 2022 and 2023, for example.

On the position player side of things, the D-backs are looking at having to replace at least two and potentially three of their starters. First baseman Naylor and third baseman Suarez are both coming off 30 homer seasons, and are projected to be above 20 homers in 2025. On top of that, if Gurriel opts out, they'll need to replace a player that has hit 42 homers for them over the previous two seasons.

There are no obvious internal replacements for the D-backs to simulate that kind of power production. Of course a prospect or two could make a big leap forward this upcoming season, but that is entirely unpredictable and not something that can be counted on.

Summary

The D-backs will have at least $70 million, and perhaps as much as $83 million coming off the books heading into 2026. But replacing those players is going to cost more than the amount coming off the books. At the same time escalating arbitration costs eat into their flexibility as well.

The D-backs have some intriguing prospects, especially at the lower levels, but none are projected to be able to replace the production of the top five producers leaving in free agency in 2026.

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The above is against the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the stadium renovation negotiations with the county and lower television revenues than they enjoyed prior to 2024.

All of this makes 2025 an extremely important season for the Diamondbacks. If the team could make another deep playoff run in 2025, garnering a similar windfall to the playoff revenue earned in 2023, that would help matters of course. But their contention window might be getting much tighter, if not closing altogether in 2026.

D-backs 2026 Payroll Breakout by Player / Jack Sommers