Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is Set Up for Another Solid Year for D-backs

Gurriel had a strong 2024 and looks ready to have another good 2025 as he weighs whether to opt out or not after the season
Arizona Diamondbacks Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (12) celebrates his single against the San Diego Padres at Chase Field on Sept. 29, 2024.
Arizona Diamondbacks Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (12) celebrates his single against the San Diego Padres at Chase Field on Sept. 29, 2024. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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Continuing our series of Arizona Diamondbacks player reviews, the Piña Power is up next, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. The projection below is a composite of ZiPS and Steamer projections, prorated to our playing time projection.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Right-Handed Left Fielder, Age 31

2025 is shaping up to be quite an important season for Gurriel. That's because after this season comes a critical decision for him. He will have to decide whether to opt out of his contract with the D-backs and leave at least $18 million on the table and enter free agency.

Should he not opt out, he is guaranteed to get $13 million in 2026 and a potential of $14 million via a team option for 2027. However, the team could buy him out for $5 million. He would be entering free agency ahead of his age-32 season, an age that would limit the contract and amount of money he could get.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. stats over his career and the projection for his upcoming season with the Arizona Diamondbacks
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. stats over his career and the projection for his upcoming season with the Arizona Diamondbacks compared to MLB avg / Jake Oliver

Why Gurriel may outperform the projection

The last time Gurriel was in a potential walk year, he had an All-Star season with 24 homers and a .772 OPS, and was worth 2.45 aWAR. He carried the D-backs' offense for the month of May and had one of the best seasons of his career.

He followed that up with another solid campaign in 2024, albeit with extended slumps and great stretches of play.

The motivation of a chance to get his last big payday could be enough to get him over the hump and back to his 2023 level of play. If he can put up another season with that amount of WAR and 24 or so home runs with an OPS closer to .800, he could easily get another three-year deal.

To help him overcome the WAR projection will be the factor of his improving glove. Gurriel was a Gold Glove finalist for the NL in left field. Under the tutelage of Dave McKay, he has developed quite a bit of range and a vastly improved glove.

Last season he had +3 Outs Above Average and he could have even more this season if he is healthy and able to perform all season. That will help raie his WAR.

Speaking of health, there was plenty of speculation that Gurriel was playing injured or sore throughout the season. That could've contributed to the season not going as well as 2023 as he sat more often.

With a fully healthy off-season, Gurriel should be primed to recapture his performance from 2023 and help lead the D-backs to the playoffs once again.

Two other factors that could prop up his bat to get him above the projections is that he doesn't strike out or whiff much and that he had a solid expected batting average.

Last year, it was in the 81st percentile and at .267. That is not far off from the projection, so a similar season to this last one with just a few more hits would be plenty to get him over the batting average projection.

As mentioned above, he was in the 75th percentile with just a 20.2% whiff rate. Plus, with a strikeout rate of just 18.3% which was in the 70th percentile, he makes plenty of contact. Putting the ball more in play will typically only produce good things as evidenced by his .313 BABIP last year.

Why Gurriel might underperform the projection

Regardless of whether or not Gurriel was injured at all last year, his stats did ultimately decline from 2023 and show some worrisome trends.

He failed to hit for nearly as much power last year. He had just 22 doubles and 18 home runs, down from 35 and 24 respectively. His ISO (isolated power) dropped from .201 to .156 over one season. His hard-hit rate fell from 46% in 2023 to 39.8% in 2024. His barrel rate fell from 8.4% to 6.7%.

Clearly, something was affecting his power, whether injury or an issue with his swing. If this is indeed due to age or swing, then it could very well happen again which would point to a good chance he doesn't meet this projection.

His walk rate has gone down three years in a row with last year being just 5.2%. Meanwhile, although he still isn't striking out much, his strikeout rate has risen three years in a row.

If all of these trends aren't reversed or lessened, then the risk that he doesn't match the projection could increase mightily.

Summary

The Arizona Diamondbacks need Lourdes Gurriel Jr. healthy and performing. He's a key right-handed bat for their left-handed heavy lineup. Gurriel provides the contact from the right side and is one of their steadiest gloves, especially in left field.

It's quite possible that he can outperform these projections due to just simple adjustments, a push to get another contract, and by being fully healthy. If those three things happen, then he has a great shot to push for another All-Star season in the desert like in 2023.

However, should his power continue to decrease, then the likelihood is that Gurriel will not be able to match these expectations. That's because there's not much more power that can be sapped as it already fell to just 22 doubles and 18 home runs.

The likelihood is that he improves upon these projections in the power department but doesn't get as lucky in the average department, which could keep his OPS quite close to the current projection. It wouldn't be a surprise if he puts up another similar season to the projections, which is similar to the season he just had.

Related Content

Arizona Diamondbacks 2024 Player Review: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.


Published
Jake Oliver
JAKE OLIVER

Jake Oliver is a Baseball Reporter for Arizona Diamondbacks On SI. He is the site's prospects writer and an editor. He is the former site expert of Venom Strikes and has been featured on numerous websites and podcasts. Jake has been a reporter for four years. He holds a degree from Paradise Valley Community College and lives in Arizona. Follow him on X for breaking news and more coverage @DarthDbacks