Mapping Out the Diamondbacks Rotation for the Rest of 2024

With the D-backs five man rotation set we fill in the blanks for the upcoming series projected starters

Jul 14, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen (23) pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

NOTE: This article has been edited to reflect a change the Diamondbacks made to the rotation order for the upcoming Mets series. Details below.

The Arizona Diamondbacks made the decision on Friday to move Jordan Montgomery to the bullpen and have Ryne Nelson remain in the rotation. By doing so they have returned to a five man rotation.

Torey Lovullo has said that they map out the starts well in advance, and at this point they are mapping them out through the end of the regular season. What follows is an attempt to think along with them and fill out the projected starts by series and games.

The current order is Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson. The first table below takes us from the final two games of the series in Boston against the Red Sox, through the three game series in Houston against the Astros which concludes September 8th.

Blacked out dates are off days.

D-backs Rotation Through September 8th / Jack Sommers

Pfaadt and Rodriguez pitched on August 19th and 20th respectively. The D-backs have flipped Pfaadt and Rodriguez in the rotation, announcing Rodriguez will pitch the opener of the Mets series on Tuesday August 27th. Thus Rodriguez will pitch with six days rest and Pfaadt will get eight days rest between starts.

The added rest due to going with the 6-man rotation these past two turns plus flipping the two starters should be a significant benefit to Pfaadt. He has carried a heavy workload this season, leading the team with 150 innings already in just his second season.

Due to the off day on August 26th, Gallen and Kelly will pitch on five days rest to kick off the Dodgers series.

We pick up the schedule after the off day on September 9th in the table below, starting with the two game series against the Rangers at Chase Field on September 10th.

D-backs Rotation September 10-29 / Jack Sommers

If the D-backs need to reorder the rotation at all, their last chance to do so will be in the space just prior to or after the September 12th off day. Otherwise the rotation is lined out as if they will be able to stay in order through the end of the season.

Based on the above tables, Gallen, Kelly, and Rodriguez will each make seven more starts. Pfaadt and Nelson will make six.

Of course there is always the chance that the injury bug bites again, disrupting this rotation calendar. Or a pitcher may just be fatigued and need an extra day. If a starter is performing poorly he could even be removed from the rotation. It's not impossible that even Montgomery could return for a couple of starts at some point.

Nonetheless, the Arizona Diamondbacks are set up now for the stretch run more or less optimally. All that's left to do is play the games and hope everyone stays healthy and pitches well from here on out.