Mets at Diamondbacks Series Starting Pitching Matchups

A big three game series between the two playoff contenders kicks off Tuesday at Chase Field. We dig into the pitching matchups for you here.

Aug 13, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez (57) pitches against the Colorado Rockies during the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks (75-56) host the New York Mets (68-63) for a three game series at Chase Fielding starting on Tuesday. The two teams split a four game series at Citi Field in New York from May 30-June 2nd. Three of those four games were decided by one run.

This preview is Part 1 of a two part series, focused on standings and starting pitching. Part 2 will cover the offense, bullpens, defense and base running later today.

STANDINGS

The D-backs are three games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West and are in the first NL Wild Card position, ahead of the Padres and Braves. The Mets are on the outside looking in at the moment, trailing the Braves by 2.5 games

The Diamondbacks are coming off a 6-3 road trip in which they were swept by the Rays but then swept the Marlins and Red Sox. The D-backs are 16-4 in their last 20 games, and 24-6 in their last 30, leading all of MLB in both spans.

The Mets split four games with the Padres in San Diego and are in the middle of a 10 game road trip. They're 6-4 in their last 10, 10-10 in their last 20, and 15-15 in their last 30.

STAT NOTE:

Year in year out Citi Field plays as a pitcher friendly ballpark (95 park factor) while Chase Field has been a neutral run environment (100 Park factor) ever since the implementation of the humidor in 2018 and artificial turf in 2019. Over 100 favors the batter, under 100 favors the picher.

Therefore additional context is provided by making use of the park and league adjusted metric ERA+100 = league average, the higher the better.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Tuesday August 27th. 6:40 P.M. MST

Sean Manaea LHP, 137 IP, 9-5, 3.48 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 113 ERA+,

Manaea has gone seven innings in four of his last five starts and has a 2.61 ERA in that span. The D-backs got to him for six runs in 5.2 innings on June 1st despite Manaea striking out 10 batters.

Brandon Pfaadt RHP, 150 IP, 8-6, 4.08 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 100 ERA+

Pfaadt leads the team in innings this year and that may be a factor in his recent stretch, in which he's posted a 5.46 ERA in his last five starts, 29.2 innings.

Ironically, thanks to good run support, he's picked up the win in four of those games. Prior to this stretch it was the opposite, as he lagged in run support and took the loss or no decision in several well pitched games. Pfaadt gave up four runs in six innings in a no-decisioin against the Mets June 2nd.

Wednesday August 28th, 6:40 P.M. MST

Luis Severino RHP, 147.2 IP, 9-6 3.84 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 102 ERA+

Severino has had an up and down season. Two starts ago he threw a complete shutout against the Marlins, and in his last start he got the win by going five innings and giving up one run in San Diego. In the three starts before that he gave up 15 runs in 13 innings.

That's been his pattern all year, 2-3 good to great starts followed by 2-3 clunkers. The net result has been league average run prevention, but he's been workhorse leading the Mets in innings pitched. He gave up five runs, four earned to the D-backs in 5.1 innings on May 31st.

Eduardo Rodriguez LHP, 16 IP, 2-0, 3.94 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 106 ERA+

Rodriguez, who signed a four year, $80 million dollar contract during the off season, will be making his fourth start of the year for Arizona. He missed four months due to a left lat strain. Rodriguez has gone five innings or more in his previous three starts, but has yet to complete the sixth. He threw 100 pitches in his last outing, going 5.1 innings and allowing one run to the Marlins to get the win.

Thursday August 29th, 12;40 P.M. MST

Tylor Megill RHP, 47 IP, 2-5, 5.17 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 77 ERA+

Megill is the favorite to be called up from Triple-A to replace the injured Paul Blackburn, according to Mets Manager Carlos Mendoza. Megill has been optioned back and forh to the minor leagues several times this year. His peripherals are generally better than his ERA, but he's prone to the big hit with runners on base. (.386 BA w/RISP and .429 BA w/RISP and 2 outs)

Ryne Nelson RHP, 130 IP, 9-6, 4.29 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 95 ERA+

Nelson has been hands down the best D-backs starter since July 1st, posting a 2.76 ERA and 2.68 FIP in his last 62 innings. He's walked just 12, struck out 62 and allowed four homers. He's pitched aggressively with his fastball, locating it where ever he wants, getting swing and miss and setting up his secondaries.

This stretch has made it possible for him to wrestle away the rotation spot from Jordan Montgomery, who has been sent to the bullpen despite his $25 million dollar contract.