National League Standings and Postseason Odds Through August 2nd

The Senior Circuit is primed for an exciting stretch run to the Postseason. Can the Diamondbacks get back in the pool?

Arizona Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo players celebrate in the outfield pool after clinching a wild card playoff spot following their game with the Houston Astros at Chase Field on Sept. 30, 2023. / Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The National League's standing has seen some significant shifts over the last month. Divisional races that looked out of reach a few weeks ago are now back in play. The Wild Card race remains tight, but several of the top contenders have gotten hot and created a little separation from the pack.

Thus the final two months are set up to be exciting as more than half the teams in the league still have a reasonable shot at a Postseason berth. And as we learned with the Arizona Diamondbacks last year, once you're in the dance, anything can happen.

Standings

NL Standings through August 2nd / Jack Sommers

The Phillies lead the Braves in the NL East by 5.0 games, and the Brewers lead the Cardinals in the Central by 6.5 games. While difficult to overcome, those are well within the range of shifts we often see in this league.

The NL West is suddenly wide open. The Dodgers lead over the Diamondbacks has shrunk to just 4.0 games, with the Padres right there too at 4.5 games back.

The Brave remain as the top Wild Card seed and have won four straight and six of their last seven following a downturn that had brought them back to the Pack. The Diamondbacks are 1.5 games back of Atlanta and just a half-game ahead of the Padres and Mets, who are tied for the third Wild Card seed.

The Cardinals and Pirates are just a good week away from jumping right back into the fray. The Giants, Cubs, and Reds are all still technically in the race but are bordering on Hail Mary territory with low odds of getting back into it.

Postseason Odds

Utilizing the composite average of Baseball-reference.com, Fangraphs, and Baseball Prospectus, the table below presents the current Postseason odds for the top 12 NL contenders. These projections are based on things like player projections, team run differentials, and strength of schedule, both past and future.

The change in red represents the increase or decrease in the percentage since we last published these odds on July 17th

NL Postseason Odds through August 2nd / Jack Sommers

These are presented in color-coded tier groupings. Despite the D-backs being a half-game ahead of the Padres in the standings, the projection systems have a little more faith in San Diego than Arizona. It should be noted that the difference between the Padres, D-backs, and Mets is fairly small. 10 point shifts in the span of a week are common.

Despite being just 2.5 games out of the Wild Card, none of the projection systems have good odds for the Cardinals, and even less so for the Pirates who are just 3.0 games out.

Tiebreakers

We are at the point where it's time to pay attention to tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is the head-to-head record. The second is a team's record within their own division. The D-backs are 19-14 against the NL West so far. That interdivisional record is the best among their primary Wild Card contenders.

See table below for D-backs H2H records against select teams. You can look up any team's H2H record against any team at this baseball reference link

D-backs Head to Head Records and Remaining Games / Jack Sommers

Winning at least one of the next two games against the Pirates will go a long way towards putting that team in their rearview mirror. After that the D-backs still have 10 head-to-head matchups against the Dodgers, Padres, and Mets combined. All of them are at Chase Field.

Their season series with the Braves and Cardinals have concluded. They cannot top the Braves based on tie breakers. They'd have to beat them outright. So while the D-backs are just 1.5 games behind the Braves in the standings, it's really 2.0 games.

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