National League Standings, Playoff Odds, and the Diamondbacks

Where do the Arizona Diamondbacks stand heading into the final 18 games on their schedule and what are their playoff odds?

Arizona Diamondbacks Corbin Carroll splashes his teammates in the outfield pool during post-game celebrations after clinching a wild card playoff spot following their game with the Houston Astros at Chase Field on Sept 30, 2023. / Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Arizona Diamondbacks salvaged the third game of their three game set against the Astros in Houston on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball by a score of 12-6. Pavin Smith had a huge game, smashing three homers and driving in eight runs.

The victory allowed the the D-backs to stay 1.5 games clear of both the Braves and Mets in the NL Wild Card Chase. Both of those teams hold the tie-breaker over Arizona due to head to head season records, so the Diamondbacks must finish the season at least one game ahead of one of those teams to make the Postseason.

NL Wild Card Standings through September 8 / Jack Sommers

Note the division leaders are not shown in the table above, as barring epic and historical collapse, all three divisions are sewn up. The Phillies hold a seven game lead over the Braves and Mets. The Brewer have a whopping nine game lead over the Cubs. And the Dodgers are six ahead of the Padres, and 6.5 ahead of the Diamondbacks.

The table below shows the composite playoff odds from three websites, Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. While the Cubs, Giants and Cardinals have minuscule odds, they are included in the table and standings shown in this article just in case one of those teams gets hot. The Giants still have three games with the Diamondbacks the last week of the regular season.

NL Playoff Odds through September 8 / Jack Sommers

Note: despite being out of the division races for all practical purposes, the above playoff odds include low single digits divisional odds.

Baseball reference bakes in a bit more recency bias, as their playoff odds are primarily based on the run differential for the last 100 games plus remaining strength of schedule. Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus standings are based on rest of season player projections, which don't change quickly or dramatically. Thus they are slower to respond to a team being "hot".

The Diamondbacks have 18 games remaining, 11 at home and seven on the road. The oddity of the schedule is they have a two game series against the Rangers sandwiched in between two off days Monday and Thursday. They'll need to take full advantage of these off days to rest up, especially their bullpen.

That's because they begin a stretch of 13 games in 13 days, starting with three games at Coors field against the Rockies. While the Rockies are not a good team this year, they are always tough at home, and Coors Field usually eats up bullpen innings.

Then it's on for a tough four game series in Milwaukee against the Brewers. They fly home without an off day for the final week of the season and play the Giants for three games September 23-25.

Finally, at the end of that brutal stretch, the D-backs get an off day on September 26th before playing the final three games of the regular season against the Padres September 27-29.

Torey Lovullo has said over and over, securing a Postseason spot is likely to come down to the final weekend of the season. It appears that will be the case.

A silver lining here is that the Mets, who are viewed as the biggest threat to the D-backs getting into the Postseason, have a tough schedule of their own. Among their remaining 19 games, they have seven with the Phillies, three with the Braves, and three with the Brewers.