Potential D-backs Free Agency Target: Adam Duvall

Could the Diamondbacks add a veteran outfielder to fill the DH role?

Jul 22, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder Adam Duvall (14) looks at Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Alexis Diaz (not pictured) after a pitch in the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

This article is part of a series evaluating potential free agent and trade acquisitions for the Arizona Diamondbacks entering the 2025 season.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are facing some significant losses in Free Agency this offseason. One of the hardest hitting departures is Randal Grichuk who played a significant role in the team's offensive renaissance in 2024.

With Grichuk potentially on the way out of the door, the D-backs will have to explore other right-handed DH options. One such name is Adam Duvall.

Adam Duvall, OF, 36 Years Old

Adam Duvall is a right-hand-hitting corner outfielder who spent last year with the Atlanta Braves. He is now entering his age 36 season and is coming off his worst career season. Things don't look great for Duvall's free agency after putting up only a 57 OPS+ in 2024, but could the Diamondbacks use his services?

The veteran outfielder was seen as a great fit entering 2024 for Arizona and was heavily tied to the club before the signing of Randal Grichuk. Now that Grichuk is potentially departing, an addition of Duvall could make some sense.

Pros

Power

Duvall has had good raw power throughout his career. He would consistently put up 30 home run seasons in his younger years when given a full season's playing time.

It seems as if he has still retained some of this pop as even through struggles and injury Duvall has managed to hit at least 10 Home Runs every season since 2019. More recently he hit 21 long balls in 2023 which marked a big rebound season for the veteran righty.

A potential drawback here is stability. Duvall has always performed with power when given a large enough sample size. 2024 though was different, hitting only 11 Home Runs, when in 2023 he hit 21 in nearly the same amount of at-bats.

Leadership

It is no secret that Duvall seems to be loved by the Braves organization. He has come back to the club in three different stints and in part this is likely due to his clubhouse presence. With 11 seasons in the big leagues now, his experience is a valuable asset.

The Diamondbacks have a crew of young outfielders that are still growing and have benefitted from great presences around them. Jake McCarthy in particular flourished under the wing of Joc Pederson in 2024, showing the kind of impact a veteran leader can have to a club.

Duvall could play a similar role with his knowledge of the game, and the peaks and valleys that every year of baseball brings.

Defensive Flexability

A big asset that Adam Duvall brings that other DH candidates do not is his ability to play the field. While his fielding metrics are not great, with a 0 Fielding Run-Value and slightly below average -3 Defensive Runs Saved, according to FanGraphs, his ability to still play the field could be an asset.

Still, Duvall can play the outfield, allowing a team like the Diamondbacks to rest players without needing to carry additional bench players. This would likely benefit some of the team's more worn-down outfielders such as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. who dealt with injury in 2024.

Cost

One benefit to the Diamondbacks in this situation would certainly be the cost. FanGraphs' crowd sourcing projections only have Duvall getting a 1 year 3 million dollar deal, though it could be even less.

This kind of deal would certainly free up the team to add a larger piece in a different area of need, such as first base or in the back end of the bullpen.

Cons

Platooning

While platooning is something the Diamondbacks have shown themselves to be comfortable with in very recent history it still comes with drawbacks. The platoon system forces multiple players to only face opposite handed pitching.

This makes the Diamondbacks spend money on a partner to set up with Duvall, and would offset him to a weak side platoon plater. There is however some benefit to this.

In 2024 Duvall was not platooned with the Braves, seeing nearly twice the amount of at bats against same sided pitching. His numbers prove that this was an absolute mistake on Atlanta's part.

Duvall had a pitiful 15 sOPS+ against right-handed pitching in 2024, and a .143 batting average. His OBP was nearly the same with only a .188 mark. Against lefties, things look much different.

In 123 PA against opposite-handed pitching, his average was a respectable .252 and his OBP jumped to a great .342 mark. Most notably his sOPS+ was 138, or 38% better than league average.

Platooning certainly wouldn't fix Duvall on its own, but it would be a necessary step should he sign with Arizona, forcing the club to find a left-handed equivalent to pair him with.

Age

Duvall is certainly in the Twilight of his career as he will be 37 next September. With a history of injuries already, it is unlikely that this will slow down as he continues to age.

Another aspect of the aging curve is of course the drop in production. Duvall is coming off a season where he batted only .182 with a .569 OPS. It was by far the worst full season of his career, and it seems that there is a chance Father Time has finally caught up.

Need for a rebound

As was touched upon in the last point, Duvall desperately needs a rebound. Another 58 wRc+ season simply won't be enough to keep him in the big leagues.

While Duvall's BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) in 2024 was only .227, showing there is some potential for growth in his average department, his OBP was a terrible .245, with only a 6.4% walk rate. His strikeouts, while in line with his career norm, still accounted for 30% of his plate appearances. This doesn't scream for a bounceback at a glance.

Conclusion

Adam Duvall is certainly a risky addition that the Diamondbacks front office could make. The money isn't an issue, with him likely demanding a modest salary, but between injury, and an unclear future of productive on-field play, the team would be risking a lot to not choose another bat.

He does, however, bring some good qualities. Duvall is a veteran leader, and a good community figure, as he has long been an advocate for Diabetes education since his diagnosis in 2012, even partnering with the National Diabetes Foundation to spread awareness.

A platoon partner could do him wonders, but the underlying numbers, including his strikeout rate, still pose large issues in his game. Ultimately, the front office will need to be the judge on whether or not Duvall is a worthwhile target after losing what was one of the best DH combinations in MLB.

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