Potential D-backs Free Agency Target: Carlos Estevez

The flame throwing closer is fresh off a standout season with the Angels and Phillies and could be a lower cost option compared to other names on the market

Aug 21, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Carlos Estevez (53) in action against the Atlanta Braves in the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

This article is part of a series evaluating potential free agent and trade acquisitions for the Arizona Diamondbacks entering the 2025 season.

The Diamondbacks kicked off their off-season on December 21 when they acquired Josh Naylor from the Cleveland Guardians to replace star Christian Walker who left for Houston.

Then, on December 28, the D-backs shocked and bamboozled the baseball world by signing the top starting pitcher on the market in Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210 MM deal with an opt-out.

After two fantastic moves so far in their off-season, the D-backs are still on the hunt for a closer and a right-handed power bat. Below is one such player that could certainly fill the closer need for them.

However, it's unknown how much money the D-backs still have to spend as the signing of Burnes was out of left field. With the price of a closer sky-rocketing this off-season, the player below could be a fit for the budget that wouldn't break the bank.

RHP, Carlos Estevez, - Free Agent, Philadelphia Phillies

Carlos Estevez is a closer in his prime as he's entering his age-32 season and is fresh off two excellent seasons, including being an All-Star in 2023. He has a big-game fastball, a wipeout slider, and strong control.

His age and relative recent experience will limit his deal to three years or less, likely just two years. Plus, he is one of the most experienced closers on the market with 82 saves in his career, including 57 the last two years.

Estevez started the year with the Los Angeles Angels before being traded at the Trade Deadline in 2024 to the Philadelphia Phillies where he helped lead their bullpen to the playoffs.

Pros

Fastball Velocity and Slider Movement

Estevez fits the look of a modern closer with a high-velocity fastball that would pair strongly with A.J. Puk, Kevin Ginkel, and Justin Martinez. Last year, his fastball averaged 96.9 MPH and in 2023, it was 97.1.

Opponents hit just .198 against the fastball with 33 of his 50 coming on the pitch. Hitters slugged just .313 against it, albeit with an expected slug of .450. Batters whiffed on it 23% of the time.

His slider was his second-best pitch, but there's a case to be made that it was his best. It averaged 89.4 MPH and hitters batted just .196. The expected batting average was identical at .196. The expected slug on it was only .268.

The slider had 9.3 inches of vertical movement and 5.5 inches of horizontal movement. The horizontal movement was among the best in baseball. Clearly, both of these pitches were clear weapons for him as the fastball had 6 Run Value and the Slider had 4 Run Value. .

Age and Cost

Estevez is just entering his age-32 season. That's far younger than the upper-30s players like Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, or David Robertson. He has not missed much time due to injury, is one year removed from being an All-Star closer, and there shouldn't be any drop-off in his skill level for the next few years.

Plus, FanGraphs projects his contract to be just nine million dollars per year and to sign a two-year deal worth $18 MM. Jeff Hoffman is seeking $38 MM while Robertson, Yates, and Jansen are projected to get deals worth over $10 MM a year.

Closing Experience

Estevez has served as a regular closer for two years. He's recorded 57 saves over that span, including 31 in 2023 with the Angels. Prior to the Trade Deadline in 2024, he recorded 20 saves in just 34 games.

In 2023, he blew four saves, giving him a save percentage of 89%. In 2024, he blew five saves and recorded a 84% save rate. His combined 86.4% save rate the last two seasons ranks 11th out of 28 closers with at least 25 saves between 2023-24.

Strikeouts and Walks

Estevez strikes out enough batters to be a viable late-inning weapon. In 2023, he struck out 78 in 62.1 innings 11.3 per nine innings. However, that number dropped to 8.2 in 2024 as he struck out 50 in 55 innings. Yet, he experienced far better baseline results because of one factor.

He walked over 50% less batters than he did in 2023. In 2023, he walked 4.5 batters per nine innings, a total of 31. In 2024, he learned to harness his pitches better and walked just 12 batters, a rate of only 2 batters per nine innings. Fewer runners on base allowed him to limit more contact and runs.

Cons

Limited Successful Experience

As one might've been able to tell, Estevez has only been a dominant reliever for the last two years, and even then, the advanced stats show that he's truly only been an elite reliever for one year, 2024.

In 2023, he had a fair amount of luck and while the stats were good, he still had an ERA of 3.90 and a FIP of 3.94, both of which are high for a closer. His ERA+ was 115. In 2022, he was good for a middle reliever with an ERA+ of 134 and an ERA of 3.47, but again, not a closer ERA.

In 2024, he had an ERA of just 2.45 and FIP of 3.24 with an expected ERA of 3.24 and ERA+ of 171. Those are astounding numbers.

But, from 2019 to 2022, he compiled an ERA of just 4.28 in 214.2 innings, an average number for a middle reliever and not an ERA one would expect from an elite closer. Albeit that was in Colorado, but it's fair to wonder how much was the thin air and how was from him.

Luck

Estevez was quite lucky in 2024 to some degree as the batting average on balls in play against him was an absurdly low .229, a number that is likely to regress to the mean. His career average is .309 and even in 2023, it was still .344,

He stranded runners 75% of the time, the second-highest rate of his career. MLB average is 72%. He left them on base despite a ground ball rate of only 32.9%.

He avoided home runs at a rate of 0.82 per nine innings allowed. Yet, he gave up barreled hits 10.1% of the time; that was in the 10th percentile in 2024.

One more concerning factor that shows how lucky Estevez was to not give up more runs was his inability to limit hard contact. Hitters had a hard-hit rate of 42.3%, which was in the 18th percentile.

Conclusion

Carlos Estevez is a closer that has displayed strong results the last two years, but there is legitimate concern over his ability to miss bats, limit hard contact, and to replicate a potentially lucky 2024. However, he throws extremely hard, has a strong slider, and is one of the youngest late-inning relievers in free agency.

There's no doubt that if he can continue to stay effective in 2025, he would be a major asset to the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen whether as a closer or 8th inning pitcher. However, would the team be that much better off giving Estevez a deal worth at least $9 MM a year compared to trading for another closer?