Potential D-backs Free Agency Target: Jeff Hoffman

Could the former Phillies reliever be the answer to bolster Arizona's bullpen?

Oct 6, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Jeff Hoffman (23) throws a pitch against the New York Mets in the ninth inning during game two of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images / Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

This article is part of a series evaluating potential free agent and trade acquisitions for the Arizona Diamondbacks entering the 2025 season.

The Diamondbacks have kicked off their offseason with a bang, acquiring Josh Naylor from the Cleveland Guardians. This is only the beginning though for Arizona, who still have plenty of work ahead of them this winter.

After filling one hole in the lineup, attention now shifts to other areas, one of which, importantly is the bullpen. More specifically, the closer role.

The closer slot has been a revolving door of sorts for the D-backs in recent years. It has been filled by a number of names in previous seasons, but with Paul Sewald's departure, and a debate around Justin Martinez's readieness to step up for the job, the team will need to address the position this off-season.

As we look at the options out there for the Diamondbacks we turn our gaze to the open market, where a familiar name, and former division rival might just be what the team is looking for.

RHP, Jeff Hoffman - Free Agent, Philladelphia Phillies

Jeff Hoffman came into the majors with the Colorado Rockies. It wasn't a smooth landing for the righty, struggling through his first 5 seasons to the tune of a combined 6.40 ERA.

In 2021 he moved to the Reds where Hoffman found some success over two seasons. In 66 total games and 117.2 IP he pitched to a 4.28 ERA and a 107 ERA+.

It was with the Phillies however that Hoffman truly found himself and turned his career around. Now two dominant seasons later he is hitting the open market and will find himself a nice home alongside a large check with his name on it.

Pros

Results

Over the last two seasons Jeff Hoffman has been an elite reliever. He posted an incredible 2.28 ERA between 2023 and 2024 with the Phillies in 118.2 IP. In that span he has also posted a dominant 12.0 K/9 and a 4.51 K/BB ratio.

He has steadily improved since leaving Colorado and managed to lower his ERA every season since 2020. In 2024 Hoffman's stellar 2.17 ERA was also backed up by an only slightly higher 2.52 FIP.

Looking at ERA+ which scales pitcher values on a scale where 100 is league average, Hoffman had an ERA+ of 180 in 2023, only to be topped by an ERA+ of 188 in 2024.

Very importantly he can generate incredible swing and miss. According to Baseball Savant, Hoffman ranks in the 96th percentile in each of Chase%, Whiff%, and K%, with an xERA in the 91st percentile, and an xBA in the 90th percentile. These numbers paint just how dominant the right-hander has been in the past two years.

Versatility

Hoffman has regularly gone multiple innings throughout his career. While the Diamondbacks are looking for backend help, and likely a closer, his versatility is a serious advantage.

This would open up doors for Torey Lovullo to mix and match at the backend of his bullpen, as well as being less hesitant to allow Hoffman to face more than the standard three to five batters.

Hoffman has had some experience opening games, though it isn't likely that the Diamondbacks would have any interest in pursuing Hoffman as a starting pitcher. While this is the case, if the team did acquire him it certainly wouldn't hurt to have it as an option in case the need arose.

Free Agency

The Diamondbacks have many possible routes to attack the closer role in 2025, but there are benefits to going about it through free agency.

The Diamondbacks have already swung one trade this winter, acquiring Josh Naylor from Cleveland. Another trade for a high-leverage reliever would almost certainly cost controllable assets, possibly even one of the team's young outfielders.

Instead, going after a closer in free agency would allow the D-backs to retain their young talent. Many of the best bullpen arms, including Jeff Hoffman are available on the market, and while not cheap, it may well be worth the added payroll.

Cons

Pursued as a starter

Early in the offseason it was reported by ESPN's Kiley McDaniel among others that Hoffman was being pursued by some teams as a starting pitchers. This was because his pitch mix was being evaluated favorably by clubs.

This report aligns with previous instances of such cases in past years. Most recently Reynaldo Lopez and Jordan Hicks have been successfully converted to starting pitchers, possibly leading to more teams viewing this as a method of getting cheap starting pitching.

Another example from this offseason is Clay Holmes who will now be turned into a starting pitcher with the New York Mets.

The issues comes in the monetary department. Starting pitchers not only are generally a more desirable role, but are a far more compensated group of players.

Holmes, for instance, was predicted to sign a 2 year 20 million dollar deal as a reliever. Instead, he soared past that total with a 3 year 38 million dollar contract. Hoffman could be looking at a very similar situation should the starting interest still remain.

Price

As mentioned in the previous segment Hoffman could rack up quite the price tag should a team pursue him as a starter. It is also true that even without the role switch that he will cost a pretty penny for whatever team decides to sign him.

Fangraphs Crowd Source projects Hoffman to sign a 3 year $30 million contact for an average of $10 million per season. This estimate is likely on the conservative end of estimates, but it does represent a good baseline for what an excellent reliever could see in Free Agency.

As Jack Sommers of Diamondbacks ON SI projects in THIS story, the D-Backs should have somewhere between 17-22 million dollars to work with without offloading Jordan Montgomery's contract.

This certainly leaves them with enough room to sign a deal of Hoffman's caliber, but could leave them handcuffed afterward when looking for supplementary lineup pieces.

Closer Experience

A slight drawback in Hoffman's game is his limited closing experience. While filling the role for the Phillies for the first half of 2024, he hasn't been in that position often.

With only 12 career saves, 10 of those came last season. As the Diamondbacks need a lockdown closer with experience, this is a potential deterrent, especially with a closer type price tag being attached to his name.

Conclusion

Jeff Hoffman would be a great acquisition for the Diamondbacks. His statistics have only gotten better in recent years, and the underlying metrics back up those results. His Baseball Savant page is a sea of red, showcasing his incredible swing and miss capabilities.

It is, however, important to point out his limited experience in a 9th inning role, something that he would likely need to step into on a full time basis. Other teams may also try and poach Hoffman with starting opportunities, and Arizona simply could not compete with a starting pitchers salary.

While there are drawbacks to bringing the hard-throwing righty to the Diamondbacks, along with some expensive hurdles in getting a deal done in the first place, he could do wonders for a bullpen that has struggled to find an identity.

If Mike Hazen and the D-backs front office go the free-agent route, there is no question that Jeff Hoffman is near the top of the list candidates they might consider.

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