Potential D-backs Free Agency Target: Jesse Winker

The fiery veteran could be an affordable replacement for Arizona's DH platoon and outfield depth.

Oct 18, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets left fielder Jesse Winker (3) singles during game five of the NLCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

This article is part of a series evaluating potential free agent and trade acquisitions for the Arizona Diamondbacks entering the 2025 season.

The Arizona Diamondbacks will likely see the departure of their slugging left-handed DH Joc Pederson. While the organization is certainly interested in bringing Pederson back, it remains to be seen whether or not they can come to an agreement.

With Pederson having a career season, his price tag (and interest from other teams) will likely be quite high. If he does depart, general manager Mike Hazen will likely look to backfill the role with a similar bargain acquisition to the Pederson/Randal Grichuk deals of 2024.

OF/DH Jesse Winker, LHB, 31

The New York Mets swung a trade for left-handed hitting Jesse Winker two days ahead of the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline. He'd been in the midst of a solid season with the Nationals, hitting .257/.374/.419 with 11 homers over 101 games.

Despite making a bit of a splash on a rising team in the Mets, his numbers actually took a hit, only slashing .243/.318/.365 with three homers over 129 plate appearances.

Perhaps his value was more in his ability to provide depth, and a fiery competitiveness for the Mets to rally behind. Still, he finished with a respectable .253/.360/.405 batting line, and a 118 wRC+ (18% above average) on the season as a whole.

Pros

Splits

Winker might not be lighting up the scoreboards, but that's not an indication of his potential value to a team like the D-backs. As with Pederson, there is a significant split between his production against right-handers than that against left-hand pitching.

Against southpaws, he slugged .337, and put up a 95 wRC+, 5% below average. But against righties, the slug jumped to .422, and the wRC+ to 124.

For his entire career, his slash against righties is .276./379./463 with a .842 OPS and 129 wRC+, while he's hit a mere .210 against left-handers.

But it's not just platoon splits. In high leverage situations in 2024, he hit .361, good for a 223 wRC+. With runners in scoring position, he hit .327, and put up a 161 wRC+.

Winker hasn't been the biggest producer in recent seasons, but if put into a situation where he faced mostly right-handers, he's proven to be an excellent hitter, and generally comes through in clutch moments.

Outfield Depth

Similarly to how Grichuk was used in 2024, Winker would likely not see a great deal of playing time in the outfield. His Range (Outs Above Average) was quite low (-11) due to his lack of sprint speed and reaction time, but he is at least passable in the outfield, posting -2 Defensive Runs Saved in 2024.

It's certainly not ideal, but if he came to Arizona as primarily a righty-killing DH, he could be used sparingly in the outfield to provide depth in case of injury, or as a situational replacement. He logged 670.2 innings in the outfield in 2024, and fielded at a decent, if not excellent .986 clip.

At the very least, he could be used in a pinch in the outfield, and fill a role similar to Grichuk's infrequent appearances on defense.

Competitive Fire

Intangibly, Winker is the sort of player you might dislike when facing him. But when he's a part of your club, the energy and competitive nature becomes a potential plus.

The D-backs appeared to lose some of their competitive fire in 2024, perhaps in part due to the loss of Tommy Pham as a strong, vocal competitor in the clubhouse. It's not a guarantee that Winker would be necessarily a good clubhouse fit in Arizona, but he certainly provides tons of energy and passion when his club needs a boost.

It's not to say the D-backs don't have leaders in their clubhouse, but a presence like Winker's could provide some added intensity to an offense that tended to alternate between hot and cold in 2024.

Cons

Lack of Power

While he's certainly a very solid hitter (especially against right-handers), Winker hasn't been much of a power-hitter of late. With Pederson's .515 slug and 23 homers departing, along with Christian Walker's 20+ homer season also set to leave Arizona, the D-backs need some slug in their contact-heavy lineup.

Winker hasn't provided much in the power department in the last three years, with just 29 homers from 2022-2024. He slugged .344 and .247 in 2022 and 2023, and only .365 in his Mets tenure to close out 2024.

That could very well not accurately represent what he's capable of. He's struggled with back injuries in those seasons, which could have contributed to his down numbers, but at age 31, it's still a risk that the pop won't return to form as a result of those injuries.

Recent Struggles

His power is a microcosm of his poor numbers as a whole since the 2021 season. He hit just .219/.344/.344 with the Mariners in 2022, and an abysmal .199/.320/.247 with the Brewers in 2023, though he only appeared in 61 games that year.

Still, his OBP remains much higher, sometimes even higher than his slug. The eye and technique are still there, and it could simply be that his injury history has hindered his ability.

But as mentioned above, a veteran player coming off lengthy injury and with a decrease in power and average exit velocity (40th percentile per Savant), it's risky to assume there won't be more injury or that this level of production isn't the new normal.

Conclusion

Winker is overall a very good hitter, and could potentially be just what Arizona's clubhouse needs. If Pederson doesn't return to the D-backs, taking a flier on another relatively cheap option and putting him in the right situation to succeed could be another case of Hazen's shrewdness.

FanGraphs' crowd-sourced estimate has Winker receiving a potential two-year deal worth $14 million, at $7 million per year. That's a pretty affordable price tag, and not too far below what Pederson was paid in 2024.

Of course, there's the question of whether Winker would accept a reduced role, or if he'd prefer to stay starting in the outfield. The Mets might very well want him back as well.

But as a whole, if the D-backs were to have the chance to take the risk that Winker is, I personally believe it could be a similar type of move to that which helped Arizona's offense explode in 2024, and the clubhouse could use Winker's clutch veteran savvy and passion for the game.

In this writer's opinion, it's not unlikely he'd be worth the risk.