Potential D-backs Free Agency Target: Paul Goldschmidt

Could an old friend be the key to solving Arizona's First Base problem?

Sep 28, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals infielder Paul Goldschmidt (46) takes a lead from third base against the San Francisco Giants during the third inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images / Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

This article is part of a series evaluating potential free agent and trade acquisitions for the Arizona Diamondbacks entering the 2025 season.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, 37 Years Old

Paul Goldschmidt is a legend in Arizona. He was drafted by the Diamondbacks in the 8th round of the 2009 MLB draft and went on to put up 39.9 WAR with the club in 8 seasons in the valley.

In terms of franchise first baseman none surpass Goldschmidt's pedigree, with only his successor in Christian Walker coming close in many areas. While with the D-backs he was elected an All-Star six times, and recieved MVP votes five times, with three podium finishes.

When Goldschmidt was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals before 2019 fans were devastated. While the team recieved a large return for the franchise first baseman, the loss of such an iconic figure who was on track to get his number in the rafters sent shockwaves through the Diamondbacks space.

Now, six seasons after the D-backs sent Goldschmidt away, they have a chance to reunite.

Pros

Track Record

If Goldschmidt were brought in by Arizona through Free Agency it would almost certainly be because of his incredible track record. He is coming off the worst season of his career, but even so finished with a 100 wRc+ and 22 Home Runs.

Previous to 2024 his wRc+ had never dropped below 117 in his 14 years of big league play, showing a phenomenal track record of success. These numbers make Goldschmidt an easy bouncback candidate, even at his age.

Durability

At 37 years of age it isn't common to list durability as a positive in a players game. Goldschmidt is the clear outlier.

Since 2015 he has posted no fewer than 151 games in a full season, collecting at least 651 Plate Appearances per year. While many players in their 20's seem to become "injury prone" it seems that the former Diamondback has found the fountain of youth.

The D-backs would almost certainly pull this back, wether that involves limiting his time in the field, or giving more regular days off.

Power

A necessary quality of most corner infielders is great power, and even at his age, Goldschmidt provides plenty. 2024 was a step back from previous seasons, following a steady decline from his 2022 MVP season, but he still managed to hit 22-round trippers.

The Diamondbacks need to add Home Runs back to their lineup. With the possible departures of Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, and even other power bats like Josh Bell, Arizona is in desperate need of some offensive additions.

Plugging Goldschmidt's right-handed bat into the middle of Arizona's offense adds another dimension to the club. While not a fix, and certainly not a move that reclaims the club's league-leading run production from 2024, the move does contribute depth.

Fanservice

While fanservice additions don't often prioritize what is best for the team, in this case they could very well align. Diamondbacks fans love Paul Goldschmidt, and it is important to make note of a deep connection that is already built between him and Phoenix natives.

The priority for Mike Hazen and the rest of the Diamondbacks' front office is to put a winning team on the field. If the team adds Goldschmidt it would be because it can help the team win ballgames, and not because of jersey sales and ticket purchases.

The buisness side of the game does exist, and even though it may not be a direct motivator behind acquiring Goldschmidt, it certainly adds another layer to his potential homecoming.

Cons

Age

Father time comes for every player at a different rate. The signs haven't been there for Paul Goldschmidt until 2024 when things began to turn downwards in a big way.

The righty first baseman is already 37 and will be 38 on September 10th of next year. Statistically, he finds himself at a point in his career where things tend to project negatively rather than positively when you look ahead.

The upside of a short-term deal with Goldschmidt is humungous and a bounceback is certainly possible. His ceiling is higher than most first basemen on the market, even at his age, but there is very little in knowing which way the pendulum will swing.

Strikeouts and Walks

Arguably the most concerning part of Goldschmidt's game in 2024 were his strikeouts and walks.

While always above 20%, his strikeout rate had never reached 26% in a full season. This paired with a normally solid walk rate cratering from 12.7% in 2023 to only 7.2% in 2024 certainly raises red flags.

An aging power hitter who will bring the majority of his value in offense having these peripherals is not ideal. Front offices will balk quickly at these types of profiles.

This is particularly true for a team like the Diamondbacks who have repeatedly watched players age on the field, and been stuck with the bill, which in Goldschmidt's case is a projected 14 million dollars according to FanGraphs.

Platooning

Goldschmidt is a prime example of a player who could benefit greatly from a platoon partner. While earlier in his career this idea would be outrageous, there is lots of evidence that supports the idea.

In 2024 the slugger hit .295 with an .839 OPS against left handed pitching. His sOPS+ was 139 compared to only a 89 sOPS+ against right handers. His batting average and OPS also fall to .230 and .675 respectively against same sided pitching.

On paper this would be perfect, however a wrinkle in this idea comes in the power department. While Goldschmidt's slugging percentage also recieves a bump against southpaws, with a .473 slugging against left handers compared to .395 vs righties, his Home Runs tell the opposite story.

Against left handed pitching in 2024 Paul Goldschmidt hit only 5 Home Runs. Against right handers he crushed 17 long balls, setting himself up for reverse power splits of sorts.

When platooning Goldschmidt, the risk of losing almost all of his over the wall power is a dangerous idea. The Diamondbacks, who would be perfectly set up to pair Goldschmidt with left handed Pavin Smith at first base, could be completely dettered by such an idea, and instead look elsewhere for a first base solution.

Conclusion

A reunion with Paul Goldschmidt seems perfect for the Diamondbacks. The track record is elite, and he is a potential bounceback candidate, but the peripferals should also make Arizona a bit weary.

The strikeout's and declining walk rate are enough to make any GM faint, and a sharp 14 million dollar projection on a 1 year deal could be a steep asking price.

Teams like the Tigers and Astros have already inquired about a deal with Goldschmidt, and Arizona could very well bow out of a bidding war should it get to that stage.

More than anything the concept of his very important over the wall power being stripped from Goldschmidt's kit in a platoon situation makes this deal scary. This preceeding the idea that he may not even want to sign in a situation where he would be platooned.

Still, Paul Goldschmidt's durability and general rapport as a quality big leaguer make him an attractive free agent to dream on.

The Diamondbacks very well could acquire Goldschmidt this winter, making for a perfect Christmas gift for all of the D-backs fans in their #44 jerseys who have waited for this moment, but readers, as well as the team, need to be aware of all that comes with him.

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