Potential D-backs Free Agency Target: Tanner Scott

Should the Diamondbacks target the former Padres high-leverage reliever?

Oct 8, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Tanner Scott (66) throws in the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game three of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

This article is part of a series evaluating potential free agent and trade acquisitions for the Arizona Diamondbacks entering the 2025 season.

The Diamondbacks have slowly begun the process of building their roster back up from its post-2024 form. So far, only one significant move has been made--a trade with the Cleveland Guardians for slugging first baseman Josh Naylor.

Though Arizona's budget is still a bit constrained (particularly if they are unable to move any of Jordan Montgomery's hefty 2025 salary), the bullpen still needs to be addressed.

Diamondbacks ON SI's Jack Sommers estimated Sunday that the D-backs have between $17-22 million to spend on other roster holes. When discussing the trade for Naylor, general manager Mike Hazen said that the D-backs would continue to be "involved" in the reliever market.

MLB clubs will always look to strengthen their bullpen, regardless of how poor or proficient they are. Arizona ranked in the bottom end of relief pitching in 2024, and would certainly do well to add a high-leverage arm.

LHP Tanner Scott - Free Agent, San Diego Padres

One of the more coveted relief arms on the free agent market is former Padres reliever Tanner Scott. Scott, a left-hander, might be the crown jewel this off-season. His sparkling ERA and peripherals will certainly command a large salary, but his high-leverage ability cannot be denied.

He might be a more expensive option, but, depending on whether or not the D-backs are able to free up more payroll, could be worth the cost.

Pros

Overall Results

Simply put, Scott is an excellent reliever. He posted a 1.75 ERA with the Marlins and Padres in 2024, and while his 2.92 FIP doesn't entirely back that up, it's still a very impressive number. In 2023, he posted a 2.31 ERA and 2.17 FIP.

Sure, he's had some less-than-excellent seasons, but even in 2022, when he put forward a pedestrian 4.31 ERA, his FIP was lower, at 3.67.

Regardless, Scott has found a way to limit runs, and has done so quite well in back-to-back seasons. Outside of raw ERA and run-related peripherals, the left-hander has struck out opposing batters at a consistently high rate.

In fact, he's never put forward a K/9 south of 10 in a full season. In 2023 and 2024, it was 12.00 and 10.50 respectively.

He also limits hard contact, and has given up just 0.35 and 0.38 home runs per nine in the past two seasons. His Baseball Savant page is a sea of red, notably including a +26 Pitching Run Value, and a 100th percentile average exit velocity against.

Not only does Scott rack up the strikeouts, he also prevents hard contact at an astounding rate, while still creating enough deception to induce chases and whiffs at a high level.

He's also both reliable and durable, pitching more than 70 innings in back-to-back seasons, and despite being 30 years old and pitching in eight MLB seasons, has yet to suffer a significant arm or shoulder injury.

He's versatile, with closing experience and 54 saves over the past three seasons, but can slot in any high-leverage situation. Alongside A.J. Puk, the D-backs could have two of the best southpaws in the game in the same bullpen.

Asset Preservation

This pro might seem like a backhanded con, but it's not. The D-backs have already swung a trade for a first baseman, and the cost to obtain a reliever under contract (like Pete Fairbanks of the Rays) would easily be controllable young players or higher-end prospects.

While Arizona has those assets, it could be wiser to actually pay the money out of pocket to obtain a reliever, rather than giving up players or prospects. Considering some of the best relievers on the market (including Scott) are free agents, Hazen could opt to utilize his payroll to bolster the bullpen without having to surrender quality young players or prospects.

Granted, good players will always come with a cost. Scott's contract certainly won't be small. But from a purely strategic outlook, it might be the most logical course of action to spend payroll dollars on a proven high-leverage arm, rather than giving up assets that could be used to add in other areas that might not have as robust a free agent market, particularly in the right-handed slug department.

Cons

Cost

While the situational usage of resources might be a pro, a con is undoubtedly related to Scott's overall cost and value.

FanGraphs' crowdsource estimate projects Scott to receive a three-year, $36 million contract. While $12 million per year isn't exactly breaking the bank, it is quite high for a reliever. Particularly considering the projected length, and the volatility of relievers, being locked in to a contract that large for a one-inning arm might give some pause.

As mentioned above, Scott doesn't have a history of injury, and likely isn't in danger of too much regression, but tying up that much future payroll into a reliever can be a tough sell for general managers league-wide, especially for a mid-market team with somewhat limited payroll flexibility.

If the D-backs can't find a way to relieve themselves of $10-12 million of Montgomery's salary, a $12 million committment to Scott would leave them with very little to pursue a right-handed DH.

It's not a complete limiter, but it is something to monitor, and it's not unlikely that Scott receives an even larger deal than the $36 million estimate, pricing him out of Arizona's capability.

Base Traffic

There isn't much deficiency in Scott's game. But one area where he consistently struggles is in offering free passes. While he has the ability to generate whiffs, chases and punchouts, he's walked quite a few batters in his time.

In 2024, he gave up 4.50 walks per nine innings, good for a 7th percentile number across MLB. In 2022, he gave up 6.61. For his entire career, that number is 4.93.

It's not so much that he can't throw strikes, but rather that much of his ability comes from getting batters to swing at less-than-ideal pitches. When that isn't working, batters can work frequent free passes against the lefty.

On top of that, his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) has been exceptionally low the past two seasons, bottoming out at .247 in 2024. That number is not sustainable, and while his 2.92 FIP does suggest that he would have been a good pitcher despite the good luck, it's something else to monitor.

If he struggles to limit walks, and his in-play balls go for even slightly fewer outs, there could be some situational hiccups for Scott in 2025, though his overall numbers suggest it won't be to a devastating extent.

Conclusion

Whether or not the D-backs do pursue Scott is likely based on their ability to clear up salary. But in a vacuum, Scott is an excellent reliever, provides versatility and stability, and is proficient against both right- and left-hand batters.

If the money is there, Arizona should check on Scott. He'd likely work wonders for a struggling bullpen, and would help lessen the left-handed workload of Puk and Joe Mantiply.

Scott is excellent in high-leverage, and could even be a closer option, depending on how the D-backs want to handle the ninth inning going forward. The walks can be lived with, and if he stays both healthy and somewhat consistent, the money would be well-spent.

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