Proposing a Simple, Realistic Plan for the Diamondbacks' Offseason

The Diamondbacks can return a strong offense and address their bullpen weakness with the right moves.

Sep 22, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Devin Williams (38) reacts after picking up a save in the ninth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks won 89 games in 2024, but heartbreakingly missed the playoffs by just one game. General Manager Mike Hazen and his baseball operations staff did an excellent job of building the league's highest scoring offense, but the pitching moves backfired, and that weakness was exposed over the final month of the season.

The challenge for the D-backs is to improve the pitching while not giving up too much of the gains they made on offense, and do so with somewhat limited payroll flexibility.

In 2024 the Diamondbacks' year-end payroll was $177 million. This according to Cots Baseball Contracts. Whether or not the team is going to equal, exceed, or cut back from 2024's franchise record year-end payroll is unknown, and of course the team is not spelling that out definitively in their public comments.

For the purposes of this article, we are assuming Arizona will come in at around $170 million. That's only a slight reduction, due to the fact there were no playoff revenues. The increased 2024 attendance, and reported brisk advance season ticket sales for 2025, mean the team will not need to make any drastic cuts however.

Based on our estimates, the D-backs have about $140 million in "locked in" costs covering guaranteed contracts, arbitration eligible players, and the remaining pre arbitration and 40-man roster spots that must be filled. In addition, teams typically need to budget for injury replacement call-ups throughout the year, and that adds about $4 million to the budget, bringing the total to $144 million.

D-backs 2025 Payroll Summary / Jack Sommers

That leaves the team approximately $26 million to spend in free agency or in absorbed contracts via trade. That is without trading Jordan Montgomery, who will earn $22.5 million in 2025.

The Plan

Trade Jordan Montgomery, save $11 million

The word coming out of the GM meetings in Texas this week is that teams are inquiring about the D-backs' starting pitching. The best case scenario is they are able to move Montgomery's contract and allow him to get a fresh start elsewhere. There are varying opinions about how much the D-backs would need to absorb to move him.

Local Arizona Sports 98.7 host John Gambadoro suggested on his show yesterday that the D-backs would not need to absorb any of Montgomery's contract in a trade. While that seems optimistic, it would give the D-backs as much as $48 million to work with.

For the purposes of this article however, we are going with a more conservative estimate of $11 million in savings. That would bring the D-backs' total available funds to $37 million.

Re-sign Joc Pederson, 2 years, $32 million guaranteed, with third year mutual option for $16 million

Joc Pederson declined his end of a $14 million mutual option for 2025, and is looking for a multi-year deal. We know for certain the D-backs were willing to pay Pederson at least that much. Going to $16 million average annual should not be a problem. The question is whether they are willing to tack on another year.

From Pederson's side of things, he's coming off a career best .908 OPS and 151 wRC+ in his age 32 season. But he is limited to batting against right-hand pitchers and DH duties. That, and his age, along with projections for a regression to the mean of about an .800-.810 OPS in 2025 will limit his market somewhat.

Re-sign Randal Grichuk, 2 years, $14 million guaranteed with third year mutual option

Similar to Pederson, Grichuk declined his end of mutual option that called for $6 million in 2025. Grichuk came into 2024 with a .761 career OPS. That was with 70% of his plate appearances coming against right-hand pitching and just 30% against left.

The D-backs flipped that around in 2024, having him face right-hand pitching just 34% of the time, and left-handers 66% of the time. The result? A career-best slash line of .291/.348/.528, .875 OPS, 139 wRC+.

His defense was about league average with +3 defensive runs saved from Baseball reference, and -3 fielding run value from Statcast. A year further removed from heel surgery that slowed him in the first part of the season, bumping him to $7 million and giving him the extra year guaranteed is low-risk.

Trade for Devin Williams, 1 year, $9 million arbitration estimate

The Milwaukee Brewers declined their $10 million option on Williams to save $1 million, fueling speculation that they will trade their star closer. Williams was sidelined for four months with a back injury, but when he returned he was his usual spectacular, unhittable self.

A free agent after 2025, this is not the type of trade that Mike Hazen typically likes to make. He usually eschews "rentals" and players that have less that two years of control when he makes trades. But this is a case where he can be more aggressive. The Brewers will surely ask for a high prospect price, but the D-backs should seriously consider paying it.

Adding Williams to the Diamondbacks' bullpen as the closer would suddenly turn a weakness into a tremendous strength. With A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez, Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson setting up, and plenty of depth behind them as well, the D-backs would have one of the best bullpens in the league.

Sign a right-handed platoon first baseman for $5 million

The previously proposed three moves would cost $32 million total for 2025. That still leaves at least $5 million to sign a right-handed platoon first baseman to pair with Pavin Smith.

Options might include switch-hitter Carlos Santana, or bringing back Josh Bell. Additional players they could kick the tires on would be Justin Turner, Mark Canha, or even Paul Goldschmidt.

If the D-backs really can't go higher than $170 million, they should wait out the market and look for deals late in the process. This worked tremendously well in 2024. There is risk with that however, as this year's market may move faster than last year. If there is a player they really want to platoon with Smith at first base, then they should tack on a couple extra million to get him.

Resign Kevin Newman, 1 year, $3 million

If there is a few extra million left over in the budget I've not accounted for, perhaps they could bring Kevin Newman back as well. The team is banking on Jordan Lawlar to stay healthy and play in the majors in 2025, but hey'll need more infield depth than that. Newman should be able to reprise his role from 2024. His defense was outstanding, and the bat was reasonable for a utility infielder.

What about Christian Walker?

Unfortunately Walker just will not be affordable to bring back. He is going to require in excess of $20 million average annual, with the only question being how many years he gets. Big market teams like the Yankees and Mets, as well as the Astros and Nationals, are all keenly interested in Walker. Throw in the Cardinals perhaps, who are losing Goldschmidt, and you have a robust market.

There will be no hometown discount, and the D-backs can't afford to throw two thirds of their available budget at one player who is entering his age-34 season.

Summary

This outline returns two major pieces of the league's best offense, creates one of the top bullpens in the league, and allows some flexibility to replace Walker's production with a platoon at first base. The payroll comes in at $170-173 million under this plan, right in range or close to 2024.

The key, as has been since the beginning of the offseason, is getting out from under at least a portion of Jordan Montgomery's contract and moving on. Failure to do that will continue to hamstring Mike Hazen's baseball operations budget.

Related Content: D-backs Face Payroll Challenge Due to Montgomery's Option