Pros and Cons for Diamondbacks Signing Paul Goldschmidt

Should the Diamondbacks attempt to bring Paul Goldschmidt back to Arizona? What are the pros and cons?

Sep 15, 2018; Houston, TX, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (44) hits a single to center field against the Houston Astros during the sixth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images / Erik Williams-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks have reportedly been among the teams that might pursue free agent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. On a lot of levels this makes sense, but also raises many questions.

Christian Walker is entering free agency for the first time, and while the D-backs are expected to make a qualifying offer to the Gold Glover, he is also expected to reject it. Thus the team has a hole to fill at first base.

Today we look at the pros and cons of bringing the 37 year old Goldschmidt back to Arizona.

PROS

Fan Favorite

There can be no doubt that Goldschmidt has carved out a Hall of Fame-worthy career, and the bulk of that production came with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He made six straight All-Star teams in the desert, won multiple Gold Gloves, and was twice the MVP runner-up.

It was a gut-wrenching move for many when he was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals after the 2018 season with one year to go before reaching free agency. He was and continues to be a fan favorite. Jerseys with his name across the back can still be seen throughout Chase Field. The goodwill such a move would bring is difficult to quantify, but exists nonetheless.

Rakes Against Left-hand Pitching

Goldschmidt won the NL MVP in 2022 at age 34 with the Cardinals. But his numbers have dipped each of the last two years. Last year he hit .245/.302/.414 with 22 homers and 65 RBI. But he hit .295/.366/.473 against left-hand pitching.

Solid Defense

While Goldschmidt's advanced fielding metrics showed him to be a league average defender at first base in 2024, he's been well above average in every season before that. He also registered 16 "scoops" in 2024, just two behind Walker who had 18. His .996 fielding percentage ranked 6th in the NL. While he probably no longer has the range he once had, he will make all the plays he's supposed to and be a steady presence on the field.

Intangibles

Nobody has made a good living betting against Paul Goldschmidt. His work ethic is legendary, and if anyone is going to be able to engineer a late 30's bounce-back, it's Goldschmidt. Moreover, while never a vocal leader, his steady hand and clubhouse presence would help lend the veteran know-how to younger players, such as Pavin Smith, who he can help mentor.

CONS

Decline vs. Right-hand Pitching

If playing full time, roughly 75% of Goldschmidt's plate appearances come against right-hand pitchers. There has been a precipitous drop in his production against right-hand pitching the last two years. In 2024 Goldschmidt hit just .230/.280/.395, .675 OPS, and posted a whopping 30% strikeout rate.

There might have been a little bad luck, as his xWOBA (expected weighted on-base average) was .325 compared to his actual .292 wOBA. How much stock one might put in a rebound for Goldschmidt over a full season hinges on him being able to reverse the decline against right-hand pitching.

Cost

The Diamondbacks not only have a hole at first base, but are likely to lose both their primary designated hitters from 2024, Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. In addition they need to add at least one higher-end reliever. Based on our payroll calculations, the D-backs only have about $30 million to spend in free agency before exceeding 2024's franchise record payroll.

It's been estimated that Goldschmidt will receive a one-year, $15 million dollar contract. That would eat up half of the available remaining budget before the team can address any other needs.

Blocking Younger Players

The Diamondbacks' general manager and manager have reiterated their belief in Pavin Smith's ability to hit at the major league level. Smith finally began to realize that promise over the final six weeks of 2024 that included a three homer game. For the year, Smith hit .270 with a .896 OPS and nine homers in 158 PA.

Goldschmidt is unlikely to sign on for a part-time role, meaning he would chop Smith's potential playing time more than half of what it otherwise might have been. Right-handed Tim Tawa smashed 31 homers in the minor leagues last year, and is a candidate to be called up at some point perhaps to be the short side of platoon with Smith. The 25-year-old would be blocked by Goldschmidt's presence however.

SUMMARY OPINION

Paul Goldschmidt is a Hall of Fame-level talent who is a potential bounceback candidate and would provide stability on defense and in the clubhouse. But Father Time is undefeated, and he won't be cheap to bring back.

If Goldschmidt were willing to accept a lesser role, similar to the role that Evan Longoria accepted when he signed with Arizona prior to the 2023 season, that would be the best case scenario.

Being the short side of a platoon, facing left-hand pitching closer to 50% of his at-bats, would protect Goldschmidt from the effects of decline against right-handers. At the same time, it would allow Smith to continue to develop and capitalize on his ability to hit right-handers.

If Goldschmidt is willing to accept a part-time role on a one year deal in the $6-8 million range, then he could be the perfect stopgap. If, however, he truly requires a $15 million contract and a full-time role, the cost and exposure for the Diamondbacks is likely too great and they should pass.