Ranking MLB Divisional Strength by WAR

Some surprising results highlight the projections when it comes to which divisions are the best and which are the most competitive.

Oct 27, 2024; New York, NY, USA; General stadium view during Los Angeles Dodgers team workouts prior to game three of the World Series against the New York Yankees at Yankees Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images / John Jones-Imagn Images

As MLB fans throughout the world know, relative strength of the six divisions is far from equal. East and West Coast teams have tended to dominate due to larger market strength, while Central teams usually lag in market size and revenues.

Central Division teams produced at least one of the World Series participants every year from 2011 through 2016, and seven of the 12 teams to appear in the Fall Classic during that span. Since 2017 however, no Central division team from either league has appeared in the world series.

What follows is a ranking of relative division strength according to WAR. These numbers are derived solely from the Depth Chart Section of Fangraphs' Projected Standings pages. At the moment these depth chart projections are based only on Steamer projections.

Another important piece of information to consider is that all of these WAR depth chart projections are somewhat high. In fact if adding 47 WAR per team to replicate a replacement level team, the average team comes out to 86 wins. Obviously that's not possible.

David Appleman of Fangraphs explained that as follows: "This is typical of our pre-season projections, since playing time for top starters tends to be an over projected. We don’t recalibrate WAR totals for projections, only for actual results."

Later in the offseason, ZiPS projections will be blended in, and the average will be updated according to the latest playing time projections produced by FanGraphs. So the tables in this article will be updated just as the season starts. Consider this a snapshot in time, before the offseason is complete.

Division Strength Rating

MLB Division Strength Ranked by projected WAR / Jack Sommers

The AL East projects to be the strongest division overall. The two central divisions taking the the two bottom slots in this table is no surprise. But what is surprising is how well the AL West projects in 2025, coming in second.

While the table is ordered by total WAR projection, the average MLB rank of the five teams in each division is noteworthy as well. Division by division breakout tables are at the bottom of this article.

Division Tossup Rating

Division Tossup Rating / Jack Sommers

The above table is an attempt to quantify how competitive each division is. This looks at the cumulative difference between first and second, first and third, and first and fourth place, to arrive at a subtotal difference.

The logic there is every division has a basement-dweller. But how close are the top four teams in the division to each other is a question we wanted to answer. The last two columns still show the 1st through 5th gap, and the total of all.

• The NL Central is by far the division that is the least clear. The gap between one and four, or one and five for that matter, is quite small. The Cubs look like the best of a weak bunch.

• The AL West meanwhile ranks second in the Tossup Rating along with being the second strongest. Not only are there three strong teams in the Astros, Rangers, and Mariners, the A's project to be the second strongest 5th place team.

• The AL Central is quite competitive one through four, but the White Sox drag down their total Tossup Rating when the 5th place team is included. The Twins are the top ranked team in this division.

• The AL East is notable in that the Toronto Blue Jays, who are the 5th place team, are projected to be just 9.2 behind the first place Yankees.

• The NL East has three strong teams in the Braves, Mets, and Phillies, but two weak teams in the Nationals and Marlins. The Nationals are a popular pick to outperform projections as a "surprise" team in 2025 however.

• The NL West, with reigning World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, is projected to be the least competitive division. The gap between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks is the biggest of any first and second place team. The Giants and Padres project somewhat weaker than expected, and the Rockies project even worst than the White Sox.

Division Breakdowns Best to Worst

Top 3 MLB Divisions / Jack Sommers

Bottom 3 MLB Divisions / Jack Sommers

Summary:

Top to bottom, the AL East is the strongest division in MLB, and one of the most competitive as well. The Central Divisions are projected to be the worst divisions in MLB, but at least should be competitive.