Should the Diamondbacks Trade for Josh Naylor?

Weighing the pros and cons of a potential Christian Walker replacement at first base.

Oct 18, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor (22) celebrates at second base after hitting a two RBI double in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees during game four of the ALCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images / Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

This article is part of a series evaluating potential free agent and trade acquisitions for the Arizona Diamondbacks entering the 2025 season.

The Diamondbacks will need to find a replacement for slugging first baseman Christian Walker if he signs with another club. As of now, that is the most likely outcome, with little chance Arizona shells out for an extension.

With that in mind, they'll need to address the first base position in one way or another.

With the idea that they'll also need to add a DH if Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk sign elsewhere (also quite likely), they could choose to look for an everyday first baseman while letting Pavin Smith platoon at DH against right-handed pitching.

One such trade target is Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor. According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, the Guardians are willing to take trade offers on him.

1B Josh Naylor, LHB - Cleveland Guardians

Naylor is only 27 years old and still under arbitration with one year of control before becoming a free agent in 2026. He brings plenty of pop to the plate. In 2024, he crushed 31 homers and 108 RBI over a career-high 152 games.

For comparison, those numbers are higher than both Eugenio Suárez and Christian Walker's numbers with the D-backs in 2024.

He might not have hit for the highest average, but it's hard to argue with the raw production, as well as the energy and intensity he brought to a Guardians club that won 92 games and the AL Central.

Here are the pros and cons of a potential trade for the young slugger:

Pros

Power

Naylor is a power-hitter by nature. Since he began taking full-time duties in 2022, he's hit 68 homers, good for a .465 slug and a .198 ISO (isolated power).

He's also hit 86 doubles and knocked in 284 runs over the past three seasons. He's been quite reliable, and consistently makes good, solid contact with the baseball.

According to Baseball Savant, he was above average in average exit velocity and bat speed, and his slug in 2024 (.456) was nearly double his pedestrian .243 average.

Considering the fact that Arizona is looking to replace some of Walker's 26 homers and .468 slug from 2024, Naylor would provide exactly that.

Peripherals

But it's not just his ability to square up the baseball. His peripherals back up his production. In fact, they're even better than his average might suggest.

Naylor, despite being a power-hitter with a .243 average, only struck out 16.6% of the time last season (80th percentile in MLB). Surprisingly enough, that rate was actually the highest it'd been in his career since 2021.

He might not take tons of walks, but he did manage a .320 OBP on top of his lower average, and his 9.2% walk rate in 2024 was the highest of his career.

He recorded a 118 wRC+, 18% above average, but perhaps the most intriguing number is his .246 BABIP. That implies an exceptional amount of poor batted ball luck. Contrasted with his .257 xBA and above average whiff rate, it's not unreasonable to say that he was a better contact hitter than his raw percentage might imply.

In fact, he's just a year removed from a .308/.354/.489 slash in 2023, though he "only" managed 17 homers that year. Naylor has a very high ceiling as a hitter, and his mechanics are sound enough to sustain it with some better batted ball luck.

Cons

Cost

As with any solid young player, Naylor would be quite difficult to acquire. While the Guardians may be listening to trade offers, Rosenthal noted in his article that they may be more willing to part with outfielder Lane Thomas.

He also called Cleveland "unsettled" in center and right field. With regard to a Naylor trade, I would be surprised if Arizona could get it done without parting with one of their young outfielders.

Both Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas are the focal point of the D-backs' trade resources, and it would be difficult to imagine the Guardians not insisting on one of the two in a deal.

Since Cleveland will likely want to add offense more than defense, I believe McCarthy would be their choice, with a young pitcher thrown in as well. It wouldn't be a shock if the Guardians' asking price is even higher than that, since they may be more reluctant to part with Naylor.

On top of a high trade cost, Naylor will cost an estimated $12 million in arbitration in 2025 per MLB Trade Rumors. That's not exactly cheap, though it would be cheaper than Walker for a player who will be nearly seven years younger in the 2025 season.

It's not bad value by any means, but Naylor is also entering his final year of arbitration. Arizona would, after just one year, have to think about extending or replacing their first baseman again, and the extension cost would be lofty, barring severe regression at the plate.

Splits

Naylor has significant platoon splits. In 2024, he hit .251 with a .474 slug against right-hand pitching, but a mere .224 against southpaws.

For his career, that jumps to .271 against righties and .236 against left-handers. He's slugged only .369 against lefties in his six seasons.

It's not to say that Naylor isn't capable of being the everyday first baseman. His numbers and peripherals have looked quite good since taking over a bulk role. But the D-backs love to maximize their platoon value, and it's possible that Naylor will be significantly less proficient against southpaws in 2025.

To surrender this much for a platoon hitter simply isn't smart business. So unless the D-backs are willing to bring back Josh Bell to hit against left-hand pitching, they'd simply have to live with low production against left-handers from their first baseman.

Defense

Naylor isn't a poor defender by any means, but he's not Walker. No one is, that's a given, and that's why Walker's cost is particularly high. Walker posted +7 Defensive Runs Saved and +10 Fielding Run Value from Baseball Savant. He won his third straight Gold Glove in 2024.

Naylor wasn't an exceptionally bad fielder in 2024, but he did record -6 Defensive Runs Saved, and +1 FRV. For his career, Naylor is -4 DRS and +8 FRV. Of cours that doesn't match up well with Walker, whi is +43 in both metrics

Granted, Walker has spoiled Arizona. It will be impossible to match his defense with any internal or external options. But with that said, the cost of acquiring and extending Naylor would likely be a bit much for a player who is more of a power hitter than a fully well-rounded first baseman.

Conclusion

Naylor is a good player, a good hitter, and would absolutely bring value to the D-backs. But this just doesn't seem like the type of trade that general manager Mike Hazen would swing in 2025.

If there was more control on Naylor's contract, perhaps. But while he would certainly bring plenty of power, it's hard to imagine Arizona landing him for a fair price.

Considering his positive impact on the Cleveland clubhouse, my instinct tells me the Guardians aren't really looking to move him. Rather, they're open to taking advantage of a power-needy team.

He's worth looking into, and is a very good young hitter. I don't want to diminish his skill and positive impact, but the D-backs shouldn't go all in on potentially just one year of a platoon hitter.