Should the Diamondbacks Try to Extend Brandon Pfaadt?

Could the Diamondbacks' young right hander be an extension candidate?

Jul 6, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images / Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a crop of talented young arms in their organization. A group that holds names like Ryne Nelson, Yilber Diaz, and eventually Yu-Min Lin, has one righty that has shone above the rest in his time in professional baseball.

At only 26 years old, and having not even reached arbitration yet, this may sound impulsive. This is quite contrary to the truth, with many reasons to prove that now could be the perfect time for the D-backs to get a deal done with Pfaadt.

Background

Brandon Pfaadt has been a star in the D-backs' system since being selected by Arizona in the 5th round of the 2020 draft. While inflated by hitter-friendly leagues, his minor league numbers speak for themselves.

He put together great seasons in 2021 and 2022, with a 3.21 and 3.83 ERAs respectively, paving his way through the Diamondbacks' system.

The right-handed starter was a highly anticipated arrival by the time he made his MLB debut in 2023. He certainly got off to a rocky start, putting up a 9.82 ERA in his first 6 games. After making some adjustments in Reno, he came back in late July to post a 4.22 in 13 more regular season games.

Pfaadt truly made himself known in the playoffs, posting a 3.27 ERA in five games. Known for his cool head and calmness in big moments, it seems he was born for the silver stage. While the Diamondbacks made a Cinderella run to the fall classic, it was their rookie starter that was instrumental in helping them get there.

2024 was a year of progress for Brandon Pfaadt. While not quite the breakout that many anticipated, there was still much to be excited about with his production. He put up a 4.71 ERA and 3.61 FIP in 181.2 IP while collecting 9.2 K/9.

So why an extension?

Arizona's GM Mike Hazen has a strong stance when it comes to extensions. He's extended Ketel Marte twice, both times working out fantastically in team friendly deals. He followed that up with the historic deal for Corbin Carroll ahead of 2023. Hazen hasn't shut down the idea of other extensions with the current group.

"We'd love to sign extensions, but you don't always get that opportunity." Hazen told reporters, including Jack Sommers of Diamondbacks ON SI.

"It's a very individualistic situation on what the player wants, what may be available, and is there a meeting of the minds on where we see the value and what is security worth versus what a player is going to get in arbitration or in the free agent market eventually."

A Workhorse

One of Pfaadt's biggest assets is his workhorse status. He is coming off a season in 2024 where he led all Diamondbacks pitchers in starts and innings pitched with 181.2. 2023 was similar, with 156 innings pitched between the majors and minors, with 22 additional innings in the postseason.

His health has been stable throughout his professional career, with no injury track record to be found. This makes him not only very valuable but extremely appealing for a GM who is eyeing an potential extension.

Expected Numbers

Brandon Pfaadt has fallen victim to some poor batted-ball luck throughout his short major league tenure. His career ERA of 5.06 is drastically higher than his career FIP of 4.15. This suggests a large swing of positive regression coming Pfaadt's way.

This poor luck isn't over a small sample either. In 277 IP his career Pfaadt has a .315 BABIP, just another level of unfortunate that he has had to deal with. Still he projects very well for 2025 as can be seen below.

Brandon Pfaadt 20225 Projection / Jack Sommers

Arbiters are likely to weight the high ERA against him more than the lower FIP, thus his arbitration prospects could be somewhat limited. The Diamondbacks could take advantage of a potentially far lower value on Pfaadt and attempt to get a deal done soon. This also allows Pfaadt to get paid earlier in his career, and have a safety net in case his luck dosen't turn around.

Youth

While it may feel like Pfaadt has been around longer than some of the teams other young starters, he is still only 26 years old, and won't turn 27 until next October. With a pristine health status, and his already strong body of work, the young right-hander is primed for a breakout.

Solidifies the Staff

The Diamondbacks are on the verge of losing a large portion of their pitching staff. While they currently have a gluttony of pitching excess, all of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Jordan Montgomery are slated to hit the open market at the end of 2025.

Mike Hazen has already made one move to address this looming issue, by inking Corbin Burnes to a six year contract, with a player opt out after year two. While Pfaadt is already under control through the 2029 season, adding an extension to keep him around for the next wave of competition is quite an appealing concept.

Why a deal might not get done

Selling Himself Short

It is a fact that Brandon Pfaadt would be selling himself short if he signed an extension today. His value right now is not nearly as high as it could potentially be next year, or even years down the line when he eventually reaches Free Agency.

"As they get closer, it just - it's easier for them to see 'I'll get there and that I'm good, that I'm a good player,' and it becomes harder for us." said Mike Hazen further expanding on potential extension talks.

While anything could happen, it simply seems unlikely that Pfaadt would willingly take a deal now when he is coming off a year which, while solid, doesn't portray his ability to the level of his highest potential.

Starting Pitcher Risk

There is an inherent risk when making a long-term commitment financially to a pitcher. It is something that every team does, and many end up regretting. Horror stories of failed pitcher deals are brought up after every extension and free agent signing, and all of those are absolutely risks.

In baseball there seems to be a truth that anything can happen at any time, and there is little that anyone can do to predict it. A player with an immaculate injury history can suddenly get hurt, or a player who appears in their prime can fall off entirely in production.

This is just a part of the wonderful game of baseball. It is both an incentive as well as a warning for both sides of a deal. Coming together on an extension means seeing this inherent risk, staring it in the face, and going onwards in spite of it.

Would the Diamondbacks do such a thing? There are few people who could make that call, but if there is a player to cut through the warning tape for, it may well be Brandon Pfaadt.