Simplifying the Diamondbacks' NL Wild Card Dilemma

Breaking down the various scenarios and predicament the D-backs have put themselves in.

Sep 24, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo (17) watches against the San Francisco Giants in the eighth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images / Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

NOTE: This story has been updated to reflect the changes after the postponement of the Mets/Braves games for Wednesday and Thursday

By losing their last three games, the Arizona Diamondbacks have put their chances of getting back into the Postseason in doubt. The dizzying and convoluted standings math can be difficult to simplify, but the following should help.

1) If the Diamondbacks win each of their last four games, then they are in the Postseason. That is because the Mets and Braves still play each other two more times. It's impossible for both those teams to go 5-0.

2) If the Diamondbacks lose each of their last four games, then they're almost certainly out, unless the Braves go 0-5. The odds of both teams going winless over their final games are so low as to not merit serious consideration.

So what happens in the other scenarios? The table below simplifies it. If the D-backs go X, then the Braves and Mets must go X in order to pass or stay ahead of the D-backs and keep them out of the playoffs.

Remember, if either the Braves or Mets are tied with Arizona at the end of the season, then they are ahead of Arizona, due to the head-to-head season record tie-breakers.

D-backs remaining games / Jack Sommers

If the D-backs win three games, they probably get in, but it's not a lock. If they only win two, it's a coin flip. If they go 1-3, they need a miracle. They have one game against the Giants and then three against the Padres over the Weekend. San Diego has already clinched a Postseason berth.

As if things weren't complicated enough, Hurricane Helene is about to slam into the Florida coast, and will reach North Georgia by Thursday at tropical storm strength. The forward bands of the storm are already creating heavy rain in Atlanta Wednesday evening.

As a result, the games Wednesday and Thursday have both been postponed and the two teams will play a double header on Monday.

This is a large disadvantage for the Mets as they must fly to Milwaukee, play three games over the weekend, and then fly back to Atlanta Sunday night for the Double header. The Braves will host the Royals at home over the weekend, and then await the return of the Mets.

The NL Wild Card series is scheduled to start on Tuesday October 1. The likely hosts are Brewers, and either the Padres or the Dodger. How exactly teams will get there in time without a pushback in the start date of the NL Wild Card is unknown as of this writing.

As for the Diamondbacks, they still have a chance to control their own fate by going 4-0, but the way they've been pitching lately, it's hard to see them doing that. Which begs the question, even if the D-backs do get in somehow, how far will they go with this pitching staff?

The most likely scenario at this point is that even if the D-backs manage to win two or three games, they won't know their fate or where they are playing until sometime Monday night.

These are all questions for another day. First things first. Win today, and worry about tomorrow tomorrow.