The Diamondbacks Desperately Need Jordan Montgomery to Step Up

The veteran left-hander has been a disappointment so far, and the underlying peripherals are not encouraging

May 25, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Jordan Montgomery (52) pitches against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks will try to rebound Sunday from an ugly 9-2 loss to the White Sox Saturday night. With the series tied 1-1 they'll try to take the series behind Jordan Montgomery.

The big left-hander is 4-4 with a 6.58 ERA and 4.76 FIP in 10 starts. The underlying peripherals as measured by the FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) indicate some bad luck and a deserved ERA nearly two runs lower than the actual ERA.

That said, the FIP- measure of 124 indicates that he's still been 24% worse than the league average pitcher even when stripping out the "bad luck". Likewise his 5.38 expected ERA as calculated by Baseball Savant is in the 8 percentile. That metric is calculated by looking at the quality of contact against as measured by exit velocity, launch angle, along walks and strikeouts.

Montgomery came into this season with a career 22.5% strikeout rate. League average is 22.2%. So far in 2024 he's at 13.7%, by far a career low. At the same time his walk rate is up to 8.2% after posting a 6.6% walk rate in his career.

Much has been made about the fact that Montgomery missed spring training and had a limited amount of time to get ready for the season. Signed on March 29th to a $25 million contract with a vesting option for 2025, Montgomery made his season debut on April 19th.

The first phase of that option has now vested at $20 million after Montgomery completed his 10th start in his last outing. The dollars go up as he continues to make starts.

That last outing was an encouraging game, in that he lasted 5.2 innings and allowed three runs on six hits, one walk, one homer, and three strikeouts to the Angels. While hardly a masterpiece, it was good enough to get the win on a day the D-backs scored nine runs.

Montgomery's sinker velocity is down from 93.3 MPH last year and 93.0 in 2022 to 91.7 MPH this year. From time to time it seems to tick up a little, especially last outing against the Angels when his sinker averaged 92.2.

Montgomery utilized his four seam fastball 26 times in that game, as opposed to his trademark sinker which he threw just 23 times. He explained after the game that he wanted to establish the fastball up and in as hitters had been sitting on the sinker down and away. Hitters are batting .364 on the sinker, but also .317 on the four seamer and .353 on the change up.

Essentially nothing has been working for Montgomery. The Diamondbacks desperately need him to figure it out and make whatever mechanical adjustments are needed to regain some velocity and movement.

With Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodriguez all on the injured list it's critical for the D-backs playoff hopes that Montgomery round into form sooner rather than later. Facing a weak opponent like the White Sox could be a stepping stone in that direction. But the underlying peripherals need to improve if there is going to be any kind of sustained success.