Is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a Realistic Target for Diamondbacks in 2026?

The D-backs have been linked to the superstar slugger as a potential landing spot for 2026 should he reach free agency

Jul 14, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) hits a double against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks have emerged as a name being tossed around in the impending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. free agent sweepstakes.

If the young slugging first baseman fails to reach an agreement on a contract extension with the Toronto Blue Jays, he'll be a free agent following the 2025 season, heading into 2026.

Guerrero is one of the premier young talents in the game. The 26-year-old will reach free agency at age 27. He's coming off a season in which he hit .323 with a .940 OPS, 30 homers, and 103 RBI. He already owns 160 career homers, and a 137 career OPS+.

Recently, Matt Snyder of CBS Sports made a list of all 30 teams, breaking down their chances to sign Guerrero. Shockingly, he listed the Diamondbacks at number three overall, calling them a "dark-horse favorite" behind only the New York Yankees and Blue Jays as the most likely landing spots.

Getting past the initial surprise of this ranking, it's understandable why the D-backs would be seen this way.

They embark on the 2025 season with a franchise record payroll for the second straight year, closing in on the $200 million mark. That blows away last year's payroll, which was already an all time high, north of $170 million.

The team was able to raise payroll last year thanks to their deep run in the 2023 playoffs, getting all the way to the World Series, enjoying the windfall that provided.

They also had over a 19% increase in year-over-year attendance in 2024, offsetting the loss in television revenue due to losing their Bally Sports broadcast contract.

Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick was true to his word, and plowed that increased revenue back into the team's payroll. With the expectation of even further increases in attendance and revenues in 2025, Kendrick made a splash this offseason, signing superstar pitcher Corbin Burnes to a six year, $212 million contract.

In addition to placing the team on the map with regards to spending, the D-backs have a lot of money coming off the books due to free agency following this season. That includes first baseman Josh Naylor, who was acquired in December in a trade with the Cleveland Guardians.

Other free agents include Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Jordan Montgomery, and Randal Grichuk. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. also has an opt-out in his deal following 2025 and could become a free agent as well.

With first base potentially opening up next year, and an ascendant franchise with a burgeoning payroll, it's not hard to see the fit. But it's not as simple as that of course. Here are some of the reasons to temper expectations.

Guerrero's Price Tag and Contract Length

The superstar slugger is estimated to have a market value of 12 years, $427 million according to Spotrac. That works out $35.7 million annual salary. While impossible to predict an accurate contract amount, if a bidding war broke out, he could possibly surpass that in total contract value.

Another factor may be the D-backs' willingness to invest that much in a first baseman through at least his age 39 season. Precedent suggests they won't.

After all they declined to pay market value for Paul Goldschmidt's mid-thirties back in 2018-2019, opting to trade him a year ahead of free agency instead.

They also were not willing to match the Houston Astros' offer to Christian Walker, who got three years, $60 million for ages 34-36. The reasons behind this are simply the fact that first basemen don't tend to age well into their mid and late 30's.

There are exceptions of course, but it should be noted that Guerrero's body type, which leans towards the heavier side (he's listed at 6-foot-2, 245 pounds), might make the team all the more hesitant to make such a long term investment.

Competition

The New York Yankees signed Paul Goldschmidt to a one year deal, and appear to be laying in wait to sign Guerrero to fill first base beyond 2025. If going head to head with the Yankees, the D-backs are unlikely to be able to outbid them.

The other New York team, the Mets, signed Pete Alonso to a two year deal, but he has an opt out after 2025. If Alonso opts out, or even if he doesn't, it's not hard to see the Mets jumping in to bid up the price tag. After all, one of them could simply DH for a year.

Diamondbacks Payroll Not Unlimited

It may be tempting to just add up all the money "coming off the books" via free agency and make the assumption that D-backs will have that large of an amount to spend in 2026 and going forward. After all that number is about $73 million, and could stretch to $87 million if Gurriel opts out.

But that doesn't take into account the remaining contracts that escalate, as well as increased amounts for arbitration eligible players. It also doesn't account for the fact that all of the players listed above that are pending free agents year are starting players, and need to also be replaced.

Based on our estimates, the D-backs are looking at approximately a $141 million dollar commitment before they attempt to replace Gallen, Kelly, Suarez, Naylor, Grichuk, Montgomery, and potentially Gurriel as well (see table at bottom of article).

If adding $35 to $40 million average annual for Guerrero, then the Diamondbacks would be looking at an almost $180 million commitment and still need to replace four or five key contributors via free agency or trade.

If they are fortunate enough to have several players emerge from their internal pipeline that could adequately replace the production of those free agents, it might be feasible for Arizona to make that kind of investment.

And of course if the team makes yet another deep playoff run, Kendrick could raise the payroll yet again.

Summary

None of the above is to say the D-backs will or won't attempt to sign Guerrero. It's unknowable at this time. But fans and pundits alike should be clear eyed about whether it's even advisable and what it would take.

Once you put all the above considerations into the context of the team's own track record and the true nature of the payroll and roster situation, it seems like a long shot.

Arizona Diamondbacks 2026 Payroll Snapshot / Jack Sommers