What Are the Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher's Trade Values?

Mike Hazen said teams are coming after his pitchers. We break down the trade values of each starter in the rotation.

Aug 30, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen (23) on the mound in the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-Imagn Images / Allan Henry-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks currently have six starting pitching for five spots heading into 2024-25 offseason. Those starters include Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson, and Jordan Montgomery.

During the recent General Managers' meetings in San Antonio, Texas, Mike Hazen spoke with David Brandt of the Associated Press about the trade market for those starting pitchers.

“We’re talking to teams about starting pitchers because of the fact that we have six,” Hazen said. “So teams are coming at us for players — starting pitchers specifically.”

Which pitcher they may end up trading, if any, and what that return might be, would be pure speculation at this point. But in order to help us get a better handle on the trade values of the aformentioned starters, we do have some tools at our disposal.

It's important to note that these are not a ranking of the skills and abilities of the respective pitchers. It's a listing of their trade values according the economics that goven baseball. Years of control, contract amount and length, and of course production are combined to arrive at a rough dollar value.

The biggest variable is the perceived or projected future projection by the two teams of the player in question. The years of control, contract estimates, and the value of one WAR, or win above replacement are fairly fixed.

But what the Diamondbacks project from their own players going forward, and what an interested team believes they might be getting, are unknowable. The best we can do to is plug in a WAR projection for the player, and assume that the team values won't be off by too much.

Here then, from most to least valuable are the tables for each of the six pitchers above, with a brief comment for each.

Brandon Pfaadt $52.9 million

Brandon Pfaadt Trade Value / Jack Sommers

Brandon Pfaadt is by far the most valuable trade chip among the starting pitchers on the Diamondbacks' staff. This is largely a function of the fact he has five years of control remaining and won't be a free agent until 2030. In fact he's not even arbitration eligible until 2028.

The WAR projection above represents a baseline of a league average starter, with perhaps a bit of growth yet to happen in 2025 to reach that level. Pfaadt had a wide discrepancy between his ERA (4.71) and his FIP (3.75), resulting in a big gap in his Baseball Reference WAR (0.1) and his Fangraphs WAR (3.1). We are splitting it down the middle.

Ryne Nelson $33.2 million

Ryne Nelson Trade Value / Jack Sommers

Ryne Nelson might have the biggest variable in perceived value of any pitcher on the staff. Were it not for the injury to Eudardo Rodriguez to start the season, Nelson would not have even been in the starting rotation. On June 26 he had a 5.42 ERA through his first 14 games.

Over his next 14 games starting from July 2 he was inarguably the most effective starter on the staff, posting a 3.05 ERA, and it wasn't flukey, as he also had a 3.14 FIP. Whether other teams, or the D-backs for that matter, treat that as a true breakout into a top line pitcher, or simply a hot streak by a roughly league average starter creates a wide range of outcomes.

For example if Nelson, who generated 2.1 WAR in 2024, was valued at 2.5 WAR per season, 10 total before becoming a free agent, his value would jump to $63 million and vault him past Pfaadt.

Zac Gallen $14 million

Zac Gallen Trade Value / Jack Sommers

There is no question that Zac Gallen is still the ace of the Diamondbacks' staff. But the Scott Boras client is a free agent at the end of 2025. As such, there is a limit to how much trade value he can have compared to a player under team control for four or five years. That's just how baseball economics works, as can be seen in these tables.

The above WAR projection is already higher than publicly available projections, which have him about 2.8 WAR. That was an attempt on my part to compensate for the fact that pitchers of Gallen's caliber tend to extract a higher price than these types of table can extrapolate.

One comparable is the Corbin Burnes trade to the Baltimore Orioles. With one year remaining on his contract, the Brewers received Joey Ortiz and DL Hall. Ortiz hit .239 with 11 homers and a .726 OPS as a rookie in 2025. Hall pitched 43 innings to a 5.03 ERA. But neither player is a free agent until 2030.

Merrill Kelly $9 million

Merrill Kelly Trade Value / Jack Sommers

Similar to Gallen, the same principles apply to Kelly's valuation. He has just one year of control remaining. His projection is for 2 WAR, league average production. His age and injury history are factors here of course.

Jordan Montgomery -$14.5 million

Jordan Montgomery Trade Value / Jack Sommers

The oft-discussed and much-maligned Jordan Montgomery contract is indeed a negative weight for the D-backs in 2024. Speaking on Arizona Sports radio, team owner Ken Kendrick made some pointed comments about the veteran left-hander's contract and performance, taking blame for how poorly it worked out.

“Looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to invest that money in a guy who performed as poorly as he did,” Kendrick said. “It’s our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint. And I’m the perpetrator of that.”

Mike Hazen has tried to repair the relationship, in the likelihood that Montgomery is not tradable without eating more than half of what he is owed. Hazen explained in the interview with Brandt:

“I will say that he was extremely accountable to the season he had, and I respect that. I tried to be accountable toward some of the areas we could have maybe helped him a little better. The dynamic was the dynamic, it is what it is.”

Eduardo Rodriguez -$30 million

Eduardo Rodriguez Trade Value / Jack Sommers

Rodriguez had a dismal, injury plagued season in which he missed the first four months. When he finally returned in August, he was inconsistent, ultimately registering a 5.04 ERA in 50 innings.

At this point it's difficult to project him above league average, or to be fully healthy for the remainder of his contract. But he's still owed a whopping $66 million guaranteed the next three seasons.

While the Montgomery situation gets far more attention, Rodriguez's increasing salaries could make him totally sunk cost if he has another season like 2024. Further compounding the situation, Rodriguez had a partial no-trade clause, in which he can block deals to 10 clubs.

Summary

While the above tables are simply a formula, and there are variables that could change these amounts drastically, they serve to help us break this out into tiers.

The two pitchers with the most control, Pfaadt, and Nelson, have the most trade value. Gallen and Kelly clock in next, but their trade value is limited by just a single year of control. Montgomery and Rodriguez have negative trade value, and the D-backs would have to eat large percentages of the remaining deals to move one of those pitchers.