What are the Keys to the Diamondbacks' Trade Deadline Decisions?

Position in the standings, playoff odds, and the state of their starting rotation all loom large as the July 30th trade deadline approaches.

Jun 11, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Jordan Montgomery (52) pitches against the Los Angeles Angels during the fifth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks went 8-4 over their final four series before the All-Star Break to finish the first half with a 49-48 record. That push has them just one game out of the third wild card spot behind the New York Mets, and 1.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second spot. The Padres are tied with the D-backs with a 50-49 record.

NL WILD CARD STANDINGS JULY 17, 2024 / Jack Sommers

Trade Deadline

Getting to this point is extremely important for Mike Hazen and his baseball operations staff when considering their stance heading into the July 30th MLB trade deadline. Speaking to Steve Gilbert of MLB.com, Hazen said:

“It’s going to be where are we down relative to how many teams are above us,” Hazen said. “Like last year, as we slipped down around the deadline, I think we got to like two or three [games] out and we had two or three teams above us. That’s a dynamic you can overcome. If you start getting too far down and buried behind and needing three, four or five teams to lose and you win, that’s not a good spot to be in. Look, I think if we have a glimmer of where it’s at, my gut will be to continue to add to this team.”

Hazen made those comments on July 1st. The team was just about to start a six game road trip to Los Angeles and San Diego. They ended up winning four of those games, and could have easily swept both teams were it not for a couple of blown saves by Paul Sewald.

The D-backs followed that up with a split of a four games series with the always tough Atlanta Braves, and taking two of three from the Blue Jays to close out their pre All-Star break run.

The way the team competed against tough competition, and getting to where they are in the standings can only have served to propel Hazen into "buy mode." The question becomes how aggressively he will pursue roster upgrades, especially in the pitching area, which is always expensive.

Playoff Odds

So how did that stretch improve the D-backs' playoff odds? Surprisingly, the various projection systems that create playoff odds still see the D-backs on the outside looking in for a postseason spot. The table below shows playoff odds and the composite average from FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus (Pecota) and Baseball Reference.

NL Composite Playoff Odds Projections / Jack Sommers

The Phillies and Dodgers are in a tier by themselves as near locks according to these projections. It should be noted that both the D-backs and Padres are just seven games back of the Dodgers, who have sustained a lot of injuries.

The Braves and Brewers are strong favorites to make the playoffs at this point, but are a tier below the Phillies and Dodgers in terms of certainty.

The D-backs are firmly ensconced in the middle of the third tier along with the Mets, Padres and Cardinals. The odds differences between them are statistically insignificant.

The D-backs start a six game road trip coming out break to face the NL rival Chicago Cubs (47-51) and the emergent Kansas City Royals (52-45). The road trip ends July 24th. A 4-2 trip would push Arizona's odds up over 40% and a 2-4 trip would drop them down to 30%.

Hazen has often said that little happens before the last week, and prices are not usually truly set until that point. Considering how tight the races are, that seems likely to play out. Furthermore, while the current state of the team puts them in a buy position, the next six games will go a long way to determine just how aggressive (or not) Hazen will be.

Starting Pitching and Jordan Montgomery

One extremely important development to keep an eye on could be Jordan Montgomery's first start back from the injured list. Signed on March 29th to a $25 million contract for 2024 with an option that already vested at $20 million for 2025, Montgomery has been a massive disappointment.

In 13 starts he's posted a 6.44 ERA and had numerous short outings where he was non-competitive. He has a 6-5 record, and the team is 8-5 in his starts, but that is a function on tremendous run support, 6.5 runs per game.

Montgomery went on the injured list July 2nd, retroactive to June 29th with right knee inflammation. That was an injury we heard nothing about prior to the roster move. He'd just given up eight runs in 2.2 innings on 10 hits on June 27th to the Minnesota Twins.

Montgomery has been throwing bullpens and presumably trying to work through his issues. He was scheduled to throw a bullpen on Tuesday July 16th back home in South Carolina, to be followed by a simulation game at Salt River Fields later this week. Torey Lovullo gave strong indications that Montgomery would be activated and pitch during the upcoming road trip, most likely in Kansas City.

How well Montgomery pitches in that first game could loom quite large in determining Hazen's urgency and willingness to spend big for a starting pitcher. If Montgomery looks sharp, it will lessen the urgency. If he is still pitching poorly, then the urgency could be ratcheted up considerably.

Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez will not be back until at least a week or two beyond the trade deadline, if not longer. So Hazen will not have the luxury of evaluation there. Therefore secondary to the overall wins and losses on the road trip, keep your eyes on Jordan Montgomery. His performance could be key to the D-backs' trade deadline approach.