What is the Diamondbacks' Pitching Plan for the last 5 Games?

Look for the Diamondbacks to get creative over the final couple of games of the season as they try to lock down a Postseason spot.

Sep 8, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks have five games remaining in the regular season with a chance to punch their ticket to a second consecutive Postseason. If they can pull it off, it would be just the second time in franchise history to do so, the first coming all the way back in 2001-2002.

To get there however they need any combination of D-backs wins and Braves losses totaling five. The Braves have six home games remaining. That includes three against the number two NL Wild Card holder New York Mets, and three against the Kansas City Royals, who are in the third AL Wild card position.

Rotation

D-backs Final Week Rotation Proposal / Jack Sommers

The starters for the Diamondbacks the next three games are listed in light green, as they are locked in. Brandon Pfaadt on Tuesday, and Zac Gallen will finish out the Giants series. There is an off day on Thursday, and then Merrill Kelly will open the weekend series against the Padres on Friday night.

After that, the plans for Saturday and Sunday are in flux. This is due to the fact that it's unknown as of this writing just how much Ryne Nelson will be able to pitch this weekend. Nelson went on the injured list on September 11 with shoulder inflammation. He is eligible to return this weekend however.

During his press conference on Monday Torey Lovullo said that Nelson had already thrown one 16-pitch bullpen without incident and would throw another 25-pitch bullpen on Tuesday.

Following that, the team will determine how far they think they can stretch Nelson in his first outing off the injured list. Lovullo threw out a couple of pitch count numbers, including 35 and also 50. Significantly, Lovullo also used the term "piggyback" when referring to Nelson's possible usage.

What's clear is that Nelson will not be able to just roll off the injured list and go out and give the team a five or six inning start. That doesn't mean he can't be an effective weapon against the Padres, however.

What we project here at Arizona Diamondbacks ON SI is that the D-backs will start Eduardo Rodriguez on four days rest Saturday. They will limit him to one time through the order, unless he is pitching lights out. Then they'll bring in Nelson with the goal of getting three innings from him, thus bridging to the seventh inning or later.

Should that entice Padres manager Mike Shildt to go to his bench early with a left-handed bat or two, that would make it all that much easier for Torey Lovullo to counter with one of his left-hand relievers in the later innings.

It should be noted that Rodriguez has not worked in relief since 2018. Nelson on the other hand has worked as the "bulk" pitcher coming in behind an opener twice this season. Both times came against the Dodgers, May 22 and July 2.

Nelson was very effective in that role both times, throwing five scoreless innings the first time, and allowed just one run in five innings the second time.

Following Saturday's game, Brandon Pfaadt would then move up to start on Sunday on four days rest. Pfaadt has experience in high stakes, elimination games, and would not find the moment too big. He is durable and starting on four days rest should not be an issue either.

Should they advance to the Postseason, the D-backs would then have Gallen and Kelly to pitch games one and two of the Wild Card. A third game starter, if needed would simply be TBD at this point.

Bullpen

Due to the fact that the high leverage relievers all had an off day on Monday, and there is another off day on Thursday, it seems likely that all of the higher leverage relievers should be available to Torey Lovullo for both games against the Padres.

Lovullo has appeared to shift towards A.J. Puk as his closer, although he'll likely still play matchups if that's what is required.

The manager might also prefer to stay away from Justin Martinez for one of the Padres games, as he worked four out of five games before getting Monday off. That included Sunday's walk-off loss to the Brewers.

It's not so much about giving him rest as it is about effectiveness. The young Tommy John surgery survivor has already exceeded last year's workload, and is showing the wear and tear from throwing a career-high number of pitches.

Unfortunately so is Ryan Thompson. With 64.1 innings thrown this year, he's already equaled last year's inning total when adding up majors, minors, and postseason.

Over his last 22 games the sidewinder has a 6.86 ERA in 19.2 IP. His FIP is just 2.96 during that span, and his 29 hits allowed have come on a .431 BABIP. At least some of this is bad luck then, but location mistakes have hounded him as well.

Kevin Ginkel should be well rested for this series as he's had two straight days off. His last two outings have been scoreless. But in the seven games before that he allowed eight runs in 4.2 innings. His September ERA is still in double digits at 10.80.

Joe Mantiply has already exceeded last year's innings total, and is approaching a career high. He was having a good September before giving up crooked numbers in two of his last three games. He has a 6.43 September ERA.

Lovullo may be finding a little more comfort in using low leverage lefty Brandon Hughes going forward. He's been used sparingly since being recalled, but has two effective outings under his belt since September 14. He's faced nine batters without giving up a hit or a run, walking two and striking out two.

In all of the scenarios above, Jordan Montgomery is the forgotten man. It seems very unlikely he will get another start for the Diamondbacks this year. If he pitches at all this week, it would mean something has gone very wrong as he would be relegated to a mop-up role.

Paul Sewald is unlikely to come off the injured list before the season is over. That said there is a slight possibility he could be activated Sunday.