What is Jordan Montgomery's True Value in Today's Market?

Recent free agent signings have provided clarity to Montgomery's market.

Mike Hazen and Jordan Montgomery at signing press conference March 29,. 2024 / Jack Sommers

The topic of Jordan Montgomery has been a thorny one for the Arizona Diamondbacks throughout 2024. He was signed to a one year deal for $25 million with a vesting player option for a second year at $22.5 million with 18 starts or more. It seemed like a great deal for the team at the time.

As has been well documented on the pages of this website and elsewhere, it hasn't worked out, at least so far. Montgomery showed up somewhat out of shape, and only had about three weeks to get ready for the season. He made his first start April 19, and pitched well, allowing just one run in six innings. Unfortunately things took a steep downward turn from which he never recovered.

Montgomery made 19 starts before getting demoted to the bullpen in late August. After several relief appearances he made two more starts, and his season was finished September 22, after which he did not pitch again. He posted an 8-7 record thanks to terrific run support, but had a 6.23 ERA and a 4.85 FIP. His sinker velocity was 1.3 MPH slower than 2024. He also spent nearly a month on the injured list mid season with a knee injury

At the end of the season team owner Ken Kendrick said it was a horrible signing, one he took full responsibility for. The D-backs have been shopping him aggressively this offseason in an effort to get out from under the $22.5 million he's going to earn in 2025. So far they have been unable to do so.

Perhaps with the reality setting in that they won't be able to move all or even the majority of his contract in a trade, Mike Hazen said during the winter meetings that he is comfortable going into the season with six starters. Manager Torey Lovullo, speaking on the Burns and Gambo show on 98.7 said that he spoke to Montgomery, who is working hard and motivated to come into camp in better shape and have a good season.

If the D-backs do indeed hold on to Montgomery, then it's worth looking at what it would take for him to be worth the $22.5 million contract. The first thing we need to know is how much are teams paying for starting pitching.

As of this writing, the contracts being given out by MLB teams are averaging $8.2 million per projected WAR value (Wins above replacement). This figure is derived by taking all of the free agent starting pitching contracts that have been signed this offseason, and dividing the average annual salary by the projected WAR for 2025.

Using this figure, we can say that Montgomery would need to produce approximately 2.7 WAR to fully earn a $22.5 million contract (22.5/8.2= 2.74).

Projected WAR Value for Starting Pitching / Jack Sommers

Obviously there is a great deal of variance in the table above from top to bottom. But it's notable that the mean is also $8.3 million per WAR.

So what does a 2.7 WAR pitcher look like in traditional numbers? As it turns out, in 2024 that was exactly Zac Gallen, according to Baseball-Reference. Gallen pitched 148 innings, posted a 3.65 ERA. The average starter in MLB in 2024 had a 4.15 ERA, and Gallen was roughly 15% better than that.

For a larger view, the below table expands the level of acceptability to 2.3-2.7 WAR, or in other words lowering the standard needed to earn the contract just slightly. The average of the pitchers in the table below is 2.5 WAR produced in 170 innings pitched with a 3.75 ERA, or 108 ERA+.

Table of pitchers worth approximately $20 million free agent dollars in 2024 / Jack Sommers

Can Montgomery achieve that level in 2025 for the Diamondbacks? It's easy to forget that for the three years prior to coming to Arizona he averaged 175 innings pitched and posted a 3.48 ERA, or 120 ERA+. That added up to 3.1 WAR, and is worth about $26 million at today's market rates, well above his $22.5 million contract for next season (3.1 x 8.3 = 25.7).

But 2024 happened, and it diminishes his projection quite a bit. Taking the average of ZiPS and Steamer projections from FanGraphs, Montgomery is expected to throw about 130 innings and produce 1.2 WAR while posting a 4.07 ERA IN 2025. That's only worth about $10 million according to current market rates (1.2 x 8.3 = 10).

A fully healthy season by Montgomery of 170 innings pitched at the same ERA rate would still be worth just $14 million, or $8.5 million shy of the break-even point.

Conclusion:

Jordan Montgomery would need to get almost all the way back to his three year average prior to 2024, or at least post a season similar to what Zac Gallen just had in 2024, to be worth the entire amount of his contract.

The projections, while considerably better than his 2024 results, are still a far way off from a level that would justify his salary in 2025. It's always possible that Montgomery could rebound all the way back to his prior form. This is baseball, after all, not a computer simulation.

But for the Diamondbacks, if they wish to trade him, they are going to have to absorb a minimum of $8 million, and perhaps as much as $12 million to move his contract. No other team is going to value Montgomery at his full contract, or even close to it.