Which Diamondbacks Centerfielder Has the Highest Trade Value?

Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy have generated a lot of trade interest. We take a close look at how these two players compare.

Jul 31, 2023; San Francisco, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks center fielder Alek Thomas (5) and Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Jake McCarthy (31) celebrate after a play during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images / Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in the midst of trying to build their team back into a pennant contender. They missed the playoffs in 2024 by just one game in agonizing fashion, despite winning 89 games.

The recent signing of superstar starting pitcher Corbin Burnes to a six year, $210 million dollar contract made a tremendous statement about the organization's determination to win in 2025 and beyond.

That financial commitment seems to make it more likely that future upgrades in areas of need, such as a right-handed power bat and a high leverage reliever, will come from trades as opposed to free agency. Even with a substantial deferrals in the Burnes deal, the current payroll commit is at least up to $175 million or more, already matching last year's franchise record.

Just after the General Manager's meetings in early November, Mike Hazen said he received strong interest in his centerfield depth. This interest was specifically directed at Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas. (Corbin Carroll is untouchable) So which one of those has more trade value and can garner the biggest return? Well that depends.

Age and Years of Control

One of the first things that must always be looked at when assessing a player's trade value is age, service time and years of control remaining. Both players are under team control for he next four years. Both will be arbitration eligible in 2026, and free agents in 2029.

Thomas is almost two years and nine months younger than McCarthy. Thomas turns 25 on April 28 while McCarthy will be 28 on July 30 . The age factor should give Thomas a slight edge in this area then.

MLB Performance to date

McCarthy has a clear edge over Thomas in career MLB performance, generating 5.3 aWAR to Thomas' 1.7 (aWAR is the average of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs WAR.)

In 1,231 PA McCarthy has hit .270/.338/.388, .726 OPS. He has a career 102 OPS+, which is slightly above league average. He is a prolific and high percentage base stealer, with 77 stolen bases against just 15 caught. On Defense he's rated about average for his career, but was +6 in 2024 according to Statcast

In 916 PA, Thomas has a .226/.271/.359 slash line. His .629 OPS and 73 OPS+, meaning he's been roughly 25% below league average at the plate. While a fast runner, he does not steal very often, with just 17 swipes and five caught. Thomas' value has been all about the glove so far. He is +10 runs above average for his career at baseball reference and +8 as measured by Statcast.

Batted Ball Data and Projectable Power

Thomas has consistently shown more "pop" in his bat than McCarthy. His career hard hit rate is 38.7%, and it's increased every year, reaching 46.8% in limited playing time in 2024. He also had a 4.8% Barrel rate.

McCarthy has a career 26.2% hard hit rate and 3.2% barrel rate. Both figures are extremely low. In 2024 his 24.5% hard hit rate ranked 246th out of 252.

The problem for Thomas is too many of his hard hit balls are on the ground to the right side. His 57.2% ground ball percentage is untenable when the league average is just 42.2%. McCarthy has a 50.5% ground ball rate. That's also high, but manageable.

It's all added up to Thomas hitting a homer once every 43 at bats, compared to McCarthy 55 at bats per home run. League average is about 30. Thomas extra base hit percentage, (XBH/Hits) is 35% compared to McCarthy's 25%.

If Thomas is able to elevate the ball just a bit more, he is projected to have at least league average power to go with excellent defense. Without a major change in his swing or approach, it's hard to project McCarthy to ever reach anything close to league average power.

Summary

Two classic themes emerge when comparing these two players. McCarthy has the higher, more dependable floor, but Thomas has the higher, more dynamic ceiling.

McCarthy is perhaps a sell high candidate, coming off a solid season despite a late season slump. He's been very good in two of his last three seasons. (He struggled in 2023 after breaking out in 2022).

In contrast, trading Thomas could be a sell low situation. He struggled through a serious hamstring injury in 2024, impacting his running and defense. He was sent down to the minors due to lack of hitting after his return. This came after flashing his power in the 2023 Postseason to dramatic effect, taking the "ride of his life".

A team looking to win now in 2025 would likely be more interested in McCarthy, as he has the more dependable projected baseline for next season. He's going to get on base, steal bases, and play at least average to above defense.

But a team that might be in a retooling or rebuilding mode would probably prefer to gamble on the upside of Thomas, hoping to develop his power and keep his hamstrings healthy.

Whether Mike Hazen finds a deal he likes remains to be seen. It would not be surprising to see one of these two players moved, based on the needs the team has and remaining budget. But the astute and patient GM is not just going to hand them over for a minor upgrade when winning in 2025 is the clear goal.