Why Diamondbacks Fans Shouldn't Freak Out over Dodgers Adding Blake Snell

There are no guarantees in baseball, and the Dodgers' rotation is filled with injury prone pitchers that have durability concerns.

Apr 19, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants third base coach Matt Williams (9) lifts pitcher Blake Snell (7) during the fifth inning of the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-Imagn Images / John Hefti-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks play in a tough division. The reigning World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers are the behemoth, having won the NL West in 11 of the last 12 seasons. The lone season they didn't, they were a 106 win Wild Card team.

Yet the Diamondbacks proved in 2023 that the playoffs are a crapshoot. All they have to do is get to the dance, and anything can happen. Anything DID happen that year when the D-backs swept the Dodgers three straight in the Division Series.

That loss prompted the Dodgers to go on a spending spree bringing in Japanese superstars Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, along with slugger Teoscar Hernandez. It paid off too, in their second World Series during this run, including the Pandemic shortened 2020 season.

But it was the Dodgers bullpen that did the heavy lifting in the postseason, leading to their title. A decimated and oft injured rotation gave them precious few innings. Dave Roberts proved masterful in managing the workloads and leveraging the bullpen.

Now the Dodgers have reportedly signed Blake Snell to a five year, $182 million contract (the Dodgers have not yet made the deal official as of this writing). Upon hearing this news, much of the reaction on social media has been spent decrying the unfairness of it all. The rich get richer, and no other team has a chance.

If everyone is completely healthy, the Dodgers rotation would be as good a collection of starters as we've seen in quite some time. The caveat though is the pitchers they've put together all have extensive injury histories and are seldom healthy for an entire season. Let's take a look.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 18 G, 90 IP, 3.00 ERA

After signing a 12 year, $325 million contract, he made just 18 regular season starts, and threw just 90 innings, or 5.0 IP per start. He posted a 3.00 ERA. He missed 2.5 months from June 15 to the end of August with a rotator cuff strain. He made four postseason starts, throwing 18.2 more innings with a 3.82 ERA.

This was a far cry from his track record in Japan, where he typically started once a week, and averaged well over seven innings per start. Pitching on five days in MLB proved to be a strain on his shoulder, and leaves questions about how often and deep he'll be able to go in the future.

Tyler Glasnow: Avg Season since 2017 18 G, 80 IP, 3.79 ERA

Glasnow made 22 starts and threw 134 innings with a 3.49 ERA. Both were career highs. In fact he's only thrown over 100 innings three times in his nine year career and made over 20 starts twice.

Glasnow tacked on to a long injury history in 2024, going down in mid August with elbow inflammation, and did not pitch in the Postseason.

Shohei Ohtani: Avg Season 17 G, 96 IP, 3.01 ERA

Ohtani did not pitch at all in 2024, having undergone reconstructive elbow surgery for the second time in his career the year prior. He made 10 starts in 2018, but was out of all 2019 with his first surgery, and pitched in just two games in 2020.

In the healthiest stretch of his MLB career, Ohtani made 23, 28, and 23 starts for the Angels between 2021-2023, averaging 143 innings and a 2.84 ERA. How much the Dodgers will protect him in 2025, or how his twice-repaired elbow will hold up remains to be seen.

Blake Snell Avg Season 22 G, 123 IP, 3.19 ERA

In the two season where Snell managed to pitch 180 innings, 2018 and 2023, he won the Cy Young Award both times, posting microscopic ERA of 1.89 and 2.25. When fully healthy and able to go more than five innings, he's a force. However in his other seven seasons in MLB he's averaged just 21 starts and 105 innings pitched.

Clayton Kershaw: Avg Season since 2021: 19 G, 102 IP, 2.88 ERA

The future Hall of Famer made just seven starts in 2024. The previous three seasons he averaged 23 starts and 126 innings. Back, shoulder, and even bone spurs in his toe last year have limited his innings. But he's coming back in 2025 to give it one more try.

Tony Gonsolin: Avg Season Since 2021: 20 G, 96 IP, 3.36 ERA

An effective pitcher when healthy, Gonsolin went down with an elbow injury requiring Tommy John surgery in August of 2023. He's expected to be ready for spring training 2025. He's only topped 100 innings twice in his five year career.

Dustin May: Avg Season 9 G, 38 IP, 3.10 ERA

May missed all of 2024, first due to recovery from flexor tendon surgery, then due to an esophageal tear. His career high in starts and innings came in 2020, when he made 10 starts and threw 56 innings. In the four years since he's made 20 starts and thrown 101 innings.

Summary:

The average season for the above seven pitchers adds up to just 123 starts and 625 innings from the above seven starters. That would leave close to 40 starts and 200 innings on the table for the rest of their depth.

If the Dodgers manage to get 140 to 150 starts from the above seven starters, then they will be in great shape. But it's not hard at all to envision a scenario where these pitchers make significantly fewer starts than that.

Which ones will be available after a full 162 game slate for the Postseason remains to be seen as well. It's far from a given they will have more than a couple of these pitchers healthy in October.

The Diamondbacks of course have health concerns of their own. Eduardo Rodriguez made just 10 starts last year due to a lat strain, and Merrill Kelly pitched just 13 times, missing time with a shoulder injury of his own. They both returned and looked healthy over the last seven weeks of the year however and are good to go for 2025.

Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson have been mostly healthy, although Gallen battled some hamstring issues. If the Diamondbacks can get 140-plus starts from these five, which is a pretty good bet, then look for them to compete for a playoff spot, where as we have learned, anything can happen.

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