Why the Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes Signing is So Shocking

The middle of the night signing shocks fans and pundits alike

Aug 10, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images / Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks pulled off what might be the most shocking move of the offseason. Late Friday night it was reported that free agent pitcher Corbin Burnes was signed to a six year, $210 million contract. Burnes is reported to have an opt out clause after 2026. The team has yet to make the deal official.

As a journalist it's my job to sniff these types of moves out, but this one catches me totally by surprise, for two reasons.

Stated Priorities

The first is that Mike Hazen has never publicly identified starting pitcher as a priority area he was looking to add. In all his interviews he stressed the need to rebuild the offense and add to the back end of the bullpen.

The only indication that he might be interested in starting pitching was the fact that they scouted Japanese free agent Roki Sasaki heavily over the summer, and were rumored to be among the teams keen on signing him early in the offseason.

When I spoke to Hazen at the winter meetings, his discussion of the rotation revolved around the fact that he had six major league starting pitchers and plenty of depth behind them in the minor leagues. He spoke about teams inquiring about his starting pitching, and indeed he traded one, Slade Cecconi, to the Cleveland Guardians to obtain first baseman Josh Naylor.

Related Content: Mike Hazen Making Big Bets on D-backs Starting Pitching to Rebound

Finances

From the very beginning of the offseason, both Ken Kendrick and Hazen seemed to indicate that 2025 payroll levels would be roughly the same as 2024 levels. In 2024 the team already ended up with a franchise high payroll of $177 million once option buyouts were included.

After the Naylor trade the Diamondbacks payroll commit looked to be about $155 million. That seemingly left just $22 million to spend before reaching 2024 levels. But the average annual salary of the Burnes deal comes out to $35 million.

We don't yet know the exact structure of the deal. Factors that could effect just how much goes into the 2025 payroll are the size of the signing bonus, how it might be backloaded, and whether any of it is deferred.

It's notable that when the Diamondbacks signed Zack Greinke to a six year, $206.5 million deal back in the 2015-16 offseason, a significant portion of that contract was deferred. Ken Kendrick went the deferrment route again with the Madison Bumgarner signing, deferring $15 million of his five year, $85 million contract.

That said, this is still a huge commitment for the Diamondbacks, regardless of the structure of the deal. If we just add the average annual to the current commit, then it adds up to $190 million, which would blow past even 2024's franchise record payroll. It seems likely there could be other deals happening.

What's Next?

As reported earlier, the team had made efforts to trade Jordan Montgomery in an attempt to free up salary space. That could still happen of course. The big question there is what is his market value and how much could the Diamondbacks off load.

If they can move all of that contract, which seems unlikely, it would bring their payroll commit back down under $170 million and perhaps allow them to still add around the edges with a reliever and a right-handed bat. But unless the team is actually moving up over $190 million to stay, it's impossible to envison how that works out.

With this deal the Diamondbacks now have seven major league starting pitchers: Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Montgomery.

A second, more radical and speculative thought that's emerged is whether the Burnes signing results in trading Zac Gallen. The Scott Boras client is in his final year of arbitration and is estimated to earn $14 million in 2025. He will be a free agent at the end of 2025.

It's possible that the Diamondbacks may look to make another blockbuster move and trade Gallen for a package that not only gives them salary relief, but could help fill one or two other holes in the roster.

On the other hand, if the Diamondbacks choose to hold on to Gallen, they'll have a dynamic top of the rotation in two Cy Young Candidates, and plenty of depth behind them.

Stay tuned to Arizona Diamondbacks ON SI. As these developments continue to unfold, we'll report and analyze all of it, trying our best to keep up with Mike Hazen.