Will the D-backs Rotation be Better than the Dodgers in 2025?

The addition of All-Star Corbin Burnes solidifies an already durable group of pitchers led by Zac Gallen. The Dodgers starters, while more dynamic, are oft-injured and unreliable

Jul 16, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; American League pitcher Corbin Burnes of the Baltimore Orioles (39) pitches in the first inning during the 2024 MLB All-Star game at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks stunned the baseball world late Friday night, swooping in to sign free agent starting pitcher Corbin Burnes to a six year, $210 million dollar contract. The perennial Cy Young candidate give the Diamondbacks the potential to have one of the best rotations in MLB.

Together with Zac Gallen, he might form the best 1-2 punch of any duo in the league. That's assuming of course the D-backs don't trade Gallen, who will be a free agent at the end of 2025.

Behind these two is a collection of both veteran and young starters that form a starting pitching core seven deep at the moment. Those names include Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, added two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to their already impressive collection of excellent but oft-injured starting pitchers. That includes Japanese sensations Shohei Ohtani (coming off Tommy John surgery) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Add to that Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, and youngsters Bobby Miller and Dustin May (also coming off major surgery), and the talent on hand is undeniable.

But the first and most important ability for a pitcher, or any athlete for that matter is availability. And it is the track record of injury and lack of availability on the part of the Dodgers choices to fill out their rotation that equals things up. This can be seen in the table below, which represents the three-year track record of the top seven pitchers on each team's current depth chart.

D-backs vs Dodgers Rotation / Jack Sommers

There can be little argument that the quality of the innings pitched by the Dodgers' pitchers is superior to the D-backs. That is evidenced simply by the ERA and FIP, which are roughly .40 runs lower than the D-backs group.

But owing to the fact that the Dodgers group has only pitched half as many innings, it gives the D-backs group a large overall advantage in aWAR by a margin of 12 (Note: aWAR is the average of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs WAR metrics).

The Diamondbacks are expected to trade at least one pitcher, with the most likely one to be moved Jordan Montgomery, according to multiple reports. Here is the breakout of the three-year track record of the individual D-backs starters, with commentary below.

Three Year Track Record of D-backs Starters / Jack Sommers

Gallen and Burnes have been remarkably durable, and similar over the last three years. Burnes in particular has thrown 190 or more innings for three straight seasons. Gallen has battled some hamstring issues, costing him some time, but otherwise has been healthy.

Kelly had the nickname "Merrill the Mainstay," until he was felled by a shoulder injury in late April 2024. He did not return until August, and had mixed results upon his return. By the end of the year he started to look like himself however, and a full offseason of rest should do him well.

Rodriguez also missed four months with a shoulder injury and was somewhat shaky after returning. If healthy, his floor is a league-average starter, with the upside to be better than that.

Montgomery is a bounce-back candidate. After posting very solid seasons before 2024, last year was a disaster, brought on in part by a late signing and missing spring training. If he remains with the team, both Torey Lovullo and Mike Hazen believe he will pitch much better in 2025.

Ryne Nelson was a breakout pitcher in the second half of 2024, in fact, he posted the best numbers on the team over the final three months. Brandon Pfaadt is underrated by ERA, as his underlying peripherals and big game chops earned in the 2023 Postseason indicate an excellent pitcher ready to emerge.

Three Year Track Record of Dodgers Starters / Jack Sommers

While Snell was the 2018 and 2023 Cy Young winner, and is a dominant pitcher, those are the only two seasons in which he's thrown over 130 innings. Last year he threw just 104 innings with the Giants.

Ohtani is phenomenal in just about every way. But he is coming off his second Tommy John surgery. Furthermore, he is recovering from labrum surgery on his non throwing shoulder. He is not expected to be ready to pitch at the beginning of 2025 according to the associated press.

Yamamoto's maiden MLB season got off to a terrific start but he left in the second inning on June 15th due to a right triceps injury and did not return until September 10. His innings were limited upon his return, throwing just 16 innings in his final four starts. He threw 18.2 more innings in the Postseason however, including a dominant game two against the Yankees in the World Series.

Tyler Glasnow made a career high 22 starts in 2024, but his season ended on August 11th with a sprained throwing elbow and he did not pitch in the Postseason. He has begun a throwing program and the Dodgers are hopeful he will be ready at the start of the season.

Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May both missed all of 2024 with injuries, but are effective pitchers when they are able to post up. Bobby Miller was a sensation in the first half of 2023 but has fallen off badly after that and spent much of 2024 in the minors.

Summary

If the Dodgers managed to get 25-30 starts from each of the top four on the depth chart (Snell, Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Glasnow), they would probably have the best rotation in the league. But getting that many starts and innings from this group seems highly unlikely.

The Dodgers are expected to add further to their stable of pitchers. They are the favorites to land Roki Sasaki, another heralded Japanese pitcher coming to the United States. But he too will need to have his workload managed. He's only averaged 110 innings pitched the last three seasons.

The Diamondbacks meanwhile have two aces at the top of the rotation, and a collection of starters that have exhibited mostly good health throughout their careers. At the same time, the shoulders of Kelly and Rodriguez will require close monitoring throughout the 2025 season.

Despite the dynamic nature of the Dodgers' starters, for all of the reasons stated above, it can be argued the Diamondbacks have the more reliable, and ultimately better starting rotation. At least for now.