Will Justin Martinez Need to be Shut Down?

Justin Martinez is reaching career-high innings limits. Could the young right-hander need to be shut down to save his health?

Aug 25, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Justin Martinez (63) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the ninth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks have developed a gem in Justin Martinez. Originally a position player, the right-handed flame thrower has developed elite stuff in his pitch repertoire. With his increased prominence in the D-backs bullpen this year though, it raises questions about the impact of his increased workload.

Justin Martinez has thrown 64.2 innings so far in 2024, and there is no sign of that stopping right now. It is easily a career high, surpassing his 2023 count of 59.1 innings pitched. A big part of the concern in what the righty reliever is doing, is the type of innings that he has been working.

Known for his high fastball velocity, regularly hitting the 102 mph marker, as well as incredible off-speed pitches with his slider and splitter, there is lots of work being put on the 23 year old's arm. Martinez has already had Tommy John surgery, undergoing the procedure in 2021. The recovery process was long and hard, and is something that has without a doubt impacted his career.

His usage has also changed in the flamethrowing righty's young MLB stint so far. He has transitioned largely from lower leverage innings, and working setup jobs when his command was struggling, to now finding himself pitching the 9th inning, and collecting saves more often than not.

Multiple factors have weighed into this change, including the immense struggles from regular Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald, who was demoted from the role in July, as well as the breakout of Martinez as a star reliever in the league.

In 2024, Justin Martinez has pitched to a 2.02 ERA, with a 2.79 FIP, with that ERA having sat below the 2 marker, and even below 1 for the majority of the year. His control and command have taken a serious step forwards. This paired with his reliance more on the vicious split finger pitch, as well as a heavily breaking slider, rather than the electric fastball, have turned Martinez almost into a different pitcher as a whole.

With an 11.17 K/9 and only a 4.66 BB/9, his fit in the closer role, even while still unofficial, seems to be a natural fit. The young fireballer is developing himself into the closer of the Diamondbacks future, it still leaves some serious questions, namely, that with his crucial role past this year alone, will Justin Martinez need to be shut down in 2024?

So far the answer to that key question is a resounding no, but with some caveats. While Martinez is sitting at a career-high in innings pitched, the number of pitches actually delivered to home plate has dropped off from past seasons. In 2023, he averaged a whopping 20.3 pitches per inning, largely coming from his sky-high 9.90 BB/9 with the Major League Club, as well as an 8.76 BB/9 with AAA Reno.

In 2024 that pitch per-inning count has dropped way down to only 16.0 pitchers per inning, lowering Martinez into a comfortable zone in regards to his overall usage. The effect on his overall workload, took him from a 1,203 pitch total last season to only 1,037 pitches thrown through August 26th of 2024. A career-high innings count, has the righty still well within a comfortable range of action.

Even still, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo is paying close attention to not only innings, and pitches thrown, but how many pitch outings, how many pitches thrown warming up in the bullpen, as well as how many consecutive days the right-hander is forced to work.

"We've talked about it but we feel like he's still in a very comfortable range of innings pitched and at a very natural increase. He worked hard to get his body right, and we've hopefully moved away from the injury risk." Lovullo said on August 13th, speaking on Martinez's potential injury concern, coming off Tommy John surgery in 2021.

"Overall innings totals are very important to us. We pay attention to that. We are comfortable with where he is at. If he gets 12-15 more appearances I think we are still going to be in a sweet spot with him."

Since this quote, giving a range on the target appearances from the rest of the year, Martinez has already made 5 more appearances, with 4 of those coming within a 6 game span of crucial games. Martinez also threw 72 pitches in those 4 outings, roughly 2 pitches higher than his season-long average that was helping him decrease work load.

With a little over a month left in the regular season, and the hope of a long playoff run following that, there will continue to be a watchful eye over what Justin Martinez is doing every day, and how the team can give him more days off between outings. Crucially the D-backs were already able to give their "situational closer" 4 days off in 5 game span in Boston, with him only working the finale.

As of now, it seems that Justin Martinez is still in the green light zone when it comes to availability, but as the appearances begin to climb, and the games become more and more critical, the questions will come once again.

Will those 7-10 outings left be enough? Nobody has that answer yet, but to keep up to date with that and more make sure to stay tuned in to Diamondbacks ON SI for all D-backs coverage.