Yilber Diaz Will Need to Fight for Playing Time in 2025

The righty impressed in 2024, but 2025 may leave him on the outside looking in
Jul 28, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Yilber Diaz (45) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
Jul 28, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Yilber Diaz (45) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
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Next in line in our 2025 Diamondbacks projection saga is young right hander Yilber Diaz. The projections below utilize a composite average of ZiPS and Steamer projections, prorated to our own playing time estimates.

Yilber Diaz, Starting Pitcher, RHP, Age 24

Diaz had an impressive year in 2024, climbing through the ranks of the D-backs' minor league system and ascending to the big leagues by mid season. 2025 will bring some challenges and will force the 24 year old to battle for roster space and his projections tell the story.

Yilber Diaz stats and projection
Yilber Diaz stats and projection / Alex D'Agostino | Diamondbacks On SI

Why Diaz could outperform projections

An injury can throw off an entire team's season. While the Diamondbacks are currently blessed by a gluttony of starting pitching this is unlikely to last. The club is likely to make at least one trade from its rotation this winter thinning out this depth.

Diaz will start the year in the minor leagues, giving him a chance to continue his development at only 24 years of age. In an age where it takes an army of arms to simply survive a 162 game season he will likely see time in the big leagues at some point and in some form.

A 20-inning barrier won't be hard to clear, nor will a 12-game projection. While he is still young and inexperienced, after last year's showing of 28.1 IP at an impressive 3.81 ERA, Diaz has placed himself on the call-up shortlist.

Why Diaz could underperform projections

While Diaz's short stint in the big leagues left a mark, it also left some questions. While he came out of the gates hot things cooled off quick. Two very impressive starts against the Braves and Blue Jays were dimmed after a wet blanket game against the Royals in only his third start.

There the righty pitched only 3 innings striking out no batters and allowing 7 runs. He would start one more time in 2024, pitching very well before coming up in mid September to pitch in relief.

Diaz's projections are quite heavy on his strikeout rate, even in a small sample. In a similar sample last season he fanned 16% of opponents, whereas he is estimated to strike out a huge 22.9% in 2025. This lines up relatively well with his minor-league numbers, but his next taste of the big leagues could be less polite.

Many young big leaguers struggle early on and seeing similar from Diaz would be no surprise. He has been exposed early, and while dominant, has given oponents a lot to work with. The development process will see him face adversity and make adjustments. With little playing time to work with already, a punch back from the league could be expected.

Summary

The Diamondbacks have very little playing time to hand out in their rotation, and while Yilber Diaz is undoubtedly an exciting arm in their future, he could be left out in the cold in 2025.

After an exciting showing last season, it is a shame that projections see him taking a back seat, but a focus on development will leave him hungry to prove himself whenever his time does finally come. The league will be waiting, ready to adjust, and the young righty must prove his ability to respond.

There is also the chance the Diaz could be called up to fill a relief role if there are injuries or performance issues in the bullpen.

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Aaron Hughes
AARON HUGHES

Aaron Hughes is a writer for Arizona Diamondbacks ON SI. Aaron also writes for Good Morning Baseball. From stats and analytics to player updates he keeps fans up to date with everything Dbacks. Follow Aaron on Twitter @AaronRHughes