Brandon "Breakout" Pfaadt on Bump for Start of Must-Win Series Vs Mets

The Arizona Diamondbacks are back at Chase Field to take on the Mets in a major clash of potential playoff teams.

Aug 12, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) throws against the Colorado Rockies in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports / Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks are back at Chase Field and start a must-win series tonight against the New York Mets. The first pitch is at 6:40 PM local AZ time as the D-backs will look to win their seventh game in a row.

The Diamondbacks are fresh off sweeping both the Miami Marlins and Boston Red Sox last week and have won six games in a row. Over their last 10 games, they've gone 7-3. They hold the top NL Wild Card spot.

They are a game ahead of the Padres, four games ahead of the Braves, and seven games ahead of the Mets. They have a +92 run differential, the fourth-highest in the National League.

The D-backs are the lone team in MLB with 700 or more runs scored this season so far with 701 scored. They're averaging 5.35 runs per game, tops in MLB.

They're 19 games above .500, their most since 2017. Despite that, they are three games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. This week is a massive one for both teams as the Dodgers face the D-backs later this week for a four-game series.

Starting Pitching

RHP Brandon Pfaadt, 8-6, 4.08 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 139 Strikeouts in 150 Innings

It might appear that Brandon Pfaadt could be struggling lately or getting tired after pitching a lot in his first full MLB season if you look at his ERA over his last five starts and 29.2 innings with a 5.46 ERA.

However, he's pitched six or more innings three times and and earned the win in four of those games, mostly due to the offense but also because Pfaadt limited the damage and kept the team in the game. He's walked a high wire but managed to survive so far.

He's pummeled the strike zone and has walked just 31 batters, a rate of 1.9 which is a strong result. Pfaadt's been much better at home with a 3.69 ERA, nearly half a run lower than his regular ERA, and it is over 68.1 innings. During that span, he's struck out 66 hitters and walked 11 with 28 earned runs given up.

The key for Pfaadt to succeed today is to locate his sweeper on the edges of the zone and locate his fastball around the zone. He can't leave too many fastballs right in the heart of the plate as has happened before because the Mets will crush them. If he can do this, he can succeed tonight in a must-win game.

To add some cotton candy to the news, in 17.2 innings this year with Jose Herrera catching him, he has a 1.53 ERA and opponents have hit .191 against him over those innings.

LHP Sean Manaea, 9-5, 3.48 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 138 Strikeouts in 137 Innings

Manaea has been one of the Mets' best pitchers this year especially over his last five starts. He's gone seven innings in four of his last five starts and pitched 31 innings with a 2.61 ERA. He's allowed just 20 hits, seven walks, and struck out 37.

He faced the D-backs once this year already back on June 1st when he struck out 10 hitters in 5.2 innings but did give up six runs and six hits.

He has at times struggled with command of his pitches as he has walked 52 batters already and given up 14 home runs.

Manaea has reverse platoon splits this year as left-handers have hit him far better than right-handed batters. Right-handed hitters have hit just .201 with a .610 OPS. Meanwhile, lefties have hit .262 with a .747 OPS against him.

The left-hander has been better on the road than at home this year with a strong 3.09 ERA over 12 games and 64 innings with 52 hits, 29 walks, and 55 strikeouts.

One area that Manaea has struggled with is with runners in scoring position (RISP). With RISP, he has allowed a .237 batting average and a .703 OPS.

Manaea throws five pitches, but there are four one needs to know if the D-backs are to find success. They have to lay off his sweeper and four-seamer. His sweeper is being hit just .182 and the four-seamer has limited hitters to just a .178 average.

However, his sinker and changeup can be hit. While his sinker has just a .221 average, the expected batting average is .257. His changeup has been hit hard at .282 and slugged at a rate of .411. Diamondbacks batters will need to hunt and wait for these pitches to find more success.

Starting Lineups

The Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets starting lineups for the game at Chase Field on August 27th, 2024. / Jake Oliver

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is back in the lineup after sitting Sunday to start the game. He has been stellar against left-handed pitchers this year. Against lefties, he has hit .336 with an .870 OPS. He's slugged .500 against them with nine doubles and five homers.

Plus, he's been doing excellent at the plate over the last 14 games as he has hit .383 with a .975 OPS. Over those 14 games, he's had seven games with two hits.

In 15 career at-bats against Manaea, Randal Grichuk has two homers, two RBI, and is hitting .375 against him. Plus, Grichuk has a .764 OPS against left-handed pitching this year.

Eugenio Suarez has been on fire since July 2nd and leads MLB in RBIs since then with 47. He's homered twice in his last three games and has 10 RBI over that span too. Since July 2nd, he's hit .309 with 54 hits, 15 doubles, and 14 homers over 46 games.

Suarez has been far better at Chase Field with a .265 average and .827 OPS. Geraldo Perdomo has been doing good of late as well in August. Over 22 games, he has hit .325 with a .925 OPS and 26 hits, seven doubles, three homers, 10 RBI, and nine walks against just 14 strikeouts.