Brandon Pfaadt Must Improve Command in Crucial Start vs Athletics

The D-backs' young right-hander has a chance to take the series and carry momentum into a tough week.

Jun 19, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) pitches against the Washington Nationals during the seventh inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

After a disappointing loss in the series opener, the Arizona Diamondbacks took a 3-0 shutout victory against the Oakland A's behind a brilliant return outing from their ace Zac Gallen yesterday.

Now, they'll have a chance to win the series today and gather some necessary momentum as they head into two series against the Dodgers and Padres. First pitch is at 1:10 PM Arizona time.

Young righty Brandon Pfaadt will have the rubber match responsibility. While his 4.45 ERA and 3-6 record might seem unsightly, his FIP sits at a more respectable 3.92.

That FIP number itself has risen significantly in recent starts, as he's had some trouble being bit by the long ball again. While he's demonstrated an ability to rack up whiffs and strike out hordes of batters when his stuff and command are on, that aspect of his game has been relatively silent as of late.

Pfaadt struck out an impressive 21 batters over his first three starts in June, over 17 1/3 innings. Since then, he's struck out only two batters total in his last two outings, over 12 2/3 innings. He recorded a Quality Start in his June 19th start against the Nationals, but did not record a single whiff or strikeout.

In these whiff-lacking starts, he's struggled with leaving pitches in a good spot for hitters. While he was the beneficiary of some lucky contact that resulted in outs, his lack of command eventually caught up to him in his recent start as he allowed a solo home run in the fifth before a towering, game-tying three-run blast in the seventh.

Earlier this week, we examined Jordan Mongtomery's tendency to throw pitches into the heart of the zone. The lefty, per Statcast, does so at a 25.4% rate, nearly 10% higher than the MLB average, and they're getting smashed for a .400 average and .709 slug.

I implored Montgomery not to rely on lucky outs and work the zone to create better deception and weaker contact and generate whiffs.

Today's case, as you might suspect, is more of the same. Pfaadt actually leads all D-backs pitchers in balls thrown in the heart of the zone, at 28.8%. He's not getting hit quite as hard as his lefty counterpart, likely due to an advantage in both movement and velocity.

But opponents are still hitting .301 on these pitches and slugging .584. They're whiffing on just 12.9% of them--an even lower rate than Montgomery's 14.7%.

D-backs fans, players and coaches all know how devastatingly Pfaadt can punch out batters, but he won't be able to get away with leaving too many of those hittable balls in the heart of the zone, even to a team as offensively challenged as the A's.

He'll need to find a way to stay on the outside edges of the zone in order to get back to his swing-and-miss self.

Despite these recent location issues, he does still lead Arizona in innings pitched by a wide margin, consistently going into or through the sixth inning--a feat that both Montgomery and the younger arms struggle to accomplish--and has been the D-backs' most reliable arm in Gallen's absence.

Across from Pfaadt is 25-year-old right-hander Luis Medina. Medina has a 5.63 ERA over five starts, and has yet to complete the sixth inning. His FIP is over a full run lower at 4.44, but he has struggled with location in his second year in the majors.

He's struck out only 17 batters over 24 innings, and allows plenty of base traffic, with a 1.58 WHIP, inflated by 12 walks in those innings.

He features a solid-velocity fastball, hovering a little over 95 MPH. He also throws an slightly faster sinker, but not as frequently as he uses the four-seam. He also shows a high-movement arsenal of breaking and off-speed pitches, with a changeup, slider and curve that all have above-average vertical movement.

The D-backs will need to work counts and avoid swinging too aggressively. While Medina isn't a soft-contact or ground ball pitcher, high movement can lead to both whiffs and weak contact, and the D-backs should have an opportunity to really excel in their chaos-ball identities if they can simply get runners on base early against an arm that struggles with walks.

Lineups

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics lineups / Alex D'Agostino

The D-backs' lineup is a standard one for facing a right-hander.

Ketel Marte will hit second, as he looks to continue his All-Star campaign and hit at an impressive rate. The stud second basemen has four multi-hit games in his last five contests, and leads his position in bWAR (4.2), slug (.525), OPS (.878), and homers (17).

Phase two of All-Star game voting opened today, and Diamondbacks fans now have the opportunity to vote for their deserving second baseman to start the midsummer classic. Marte's numbers and overall play put him well above his competition, as laid out by Inside the Diamondbacks' Jack Sommers.

To vote for Marte to get his rightful start on July 16th click here.

But it's not just Marte who's been on fire at the plate. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is riding a hot streak, collecting multiple base hits in eight of his last 10 games. He's hitting .425 in that stretch, with a triple, double and two home runs as he works his way out of a deep slump.