Brandon Pfaadt Needs to Limit Hittable Pitches vs Brewers

The D-backs are in need of a win with the Mets and Braves breathing down their neck, and need a solid start from their young righty.

Sep 6, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) pitches against the Houston Astros in the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in need of a win over the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday night, after losing a tight pitchers' duel on Friday by a score of 2-1. First pitch is at 5:10 p.m. Arizona time.

At 82-65, the D-backs are anything but a fringe playoff team, but with the entire NL Wild Card picture winning on Friday and continuing to do so, Arizona will need to keep their foot on the gas to avoid being caught by the Mets and Braves.

They're currently in the second Wild Card slot, a half game back of the Padres, with only a 1.0 game lead over the Mets in the final spot. The Braves are one game out of a playoff spot, so Arizona's cushion has decreased down to just two games.

Brandon Pfaadt will get the start for the D-backs. Pfaadt has emerged over the course of the season as one of Arizona's top young arms, but as his inning count is about to reach a career high across any level, he's begun to struggle mightily with command and going deep into games.

He's led the D-backs in innings pitched this season with 165. In 2023 his total, across MiLB and MLB (including the postseason) was 178 2/3. He's roughly two-to-three starts from surpassing his cumulative season high, and it's beginning to show in his rougher stretch over the last month, where he's put up over a 6.00 ERA since August began.

He's pitched to a 4.42 ERA on the year, but his 3.54 FIP suggests he's been better overall than the ERA suggests. He's avoided walks, allowing just 1.91 per nine innings, while continuing to demonstrate an ability to collect strikeouts, punching out 8.73 per nine.

His last two starts have been decent enough, as he's surrendered three and four earned runs respectively, but he's only pitched a total of 10 1/3 innings in those starts, and his problem inning has begun to strike earlier and harder.

Pfaadt did however manage to suppress the Dodgers' potent lineup, going 5 2/3 against LA while only allowing three runs and striking out 10. Regardless of his inconsistencies with command and stamina, he's maintained his ability to hold down the toughest of hitters.

Pfaadt will need to maintain efficiency and keep his off-speed and breaking balls away from the heart of the zone. He's exceptional at creating swing-and-miss, but too often is a sweeper or changeup left in the dead center of the zone.

The Brewers will send young right-hander Tobias Myers to the mound. The 26-year-old is pitching in his first MLB season, and has done admirably so far. He's pitched to a 2.93 ERA, however his 4.10 FIP suggests part of that has been batted ball luck.

That said, he's coming off one of his best starts of the year, going six innings of one-run ball while striking out 11. He's also pitched into the eighth inning on multiple occasions. He throws a standard 93 MPH four-seam, as well as a cutter, slider, changeup and curve.

He's mostly a flyball pitcher, but his expected stats all suggest some regression could be in order. The D-backs should look for a somewhat hittable fastball in the upper region of the zone, as Myers hasn't been a stranger to hard contact, with a 90 MPH average exit velocity against him and a low 38.1% ground ball rate.

It wouldn't be the first time this season the D-backs have ruined a young starter's ERA, and although Myers has had some notable success this season, Arizona's bloodthirsty offense hasn't seemed to care about what the numbers say.

Lineups

Game 148.https://t.co/epBmrbYHsx | https://t.co/k9Xjx1ui6d pic.twitter.com/wNXA7cbRgg

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 14, 2024

Arizona's offense put together enough in Friday night's contest, racking up six hits and five walks, but only managed to scrape across one run off a sacrifice fly. MLB's top offense isn't used to weaker showings, but they did still manage to work good at-bats and make solid contact, even if many of them were for outs.

Against the righty Myers, Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte will take the standard 1-2, with the home run-smashing duo Joc Pederson and Christian Walker following suit. Pavin Smith will take his spot in left field, while Adrian Del Castillo gets the start behind the plate.