Brandon Pfaadt With Chance for Redemption vs Brewers

The D-backs need to get off on the right foot in Milwaukee, needing a rebound start from their young right-hander.

Sep 6, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) fixes his shirt before he pitches against the Houston Astros in the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are sliding their way into crunch time, as they head to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers for the second time in three series. First pitch is at 4:15 p.m. on Thursday, and will be broadcast nationally on FOX, channel 10 in Phoenix, channel 11 in Tucson.

They'll face a four-game set with Milwaukee, after dropping their home series with the Brewers 2-1, salvaging the final game with a wild walk-off comeback victory in extra innings.

The D-backs (84-68) share their record with the Mets, who own the tiebreaker on Arizona. This currently slots the D-backs into the third and final Wild Card, two games up on the Atlanta Braves as the first team out.

Arizona is in dire need of some stacked wins, as both the Mets and Braves continue to win game after game, in never-ending pursuit of the San Diego Padres in the top Wild Card.

But if they want to do that, they'll need a better performance out of right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt had emerged throughout 2024 as one of the D-backs' most consistent starters, going deep into games and generally keeping a handle on games.

That, however, has turned in extreme fashion. On July 21, he had a 3.74 ERA, on the way to a 2.13 monthly ERA. August and September have been the opposite story, with multiple poor outings leading to a ballooned 4.81 ERA.

His last outing was a career low, as the young righty was only able to complete 1.2 innings, while allowing three walks, seven hits and eight earned runs. Pfaadt's location has been poor, to say the least, and he's struggled to find ways to miss bats the way he had for most of the regular season.

Though Pfaadt insists that he isn't feeling fatigued and his body and arm are in good shape, the fact is that his 166.2 innings this season is nearing a career high across any level. With so many injuries and inconsistencies across the rotation, Arizona had to lean on Pfaadt quite a bit thus far.

It's caught up to him, but the raw ability is still there. If Pfaadt can limit his mistake pitches and locate his sweeper better, there's no reason he shouldn't be able to deliver a bounceback outing, but he'll have to keep his pitches out of the heart of the zone.

Across from Pfaadt is righty Tobias Myers. Myers has been an excellent arm for Milwaukee in 2024, pitching to a 3.07 ERA in 23 starts. His FIP, however, is a full run higher at 4.11. That's not necessarily an indication that he's pitched poorly, but does imply that he's been a bit more hittable than the Brewers' defense has allowed.

He throws a middle-velocity fastball, changeup, slider and curveball, along with an 89 MPH cutter. The D-backs were able to get to him a bit last week, tagging him for four earned runs over six innings, but the game was already out of Arizona's reach due to Pfaadt's blow-up, and Myers earned the win despite a middle-inning stumble.

Arizona will have to continue their offensive resurgence against an arm that isn't untouchable, but ultimately, Thursday's game will come down to their own pitching staff, more than their offensive approach.

Lineup

Game 153.

📺 @MLBONFOX*
📻 98.7 FM @AZSports pic.twitter.com/TW1KK8AQVS

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 19, 2024

The D-backs will send out a fairly standard righty-facing lineup, with Corbin Carroll looking to continue to slug in the leadoff spot. Carroll recorded a multi-homer game in Wednesday's matchup with the Rockies, hitting his 20th and 21st homer of the season.

With 29 stolen bases on the year, Carroll now has back-to-back 20/20 seasons, and joins an elite list to do so at such a young age.

Ketel Marte hasn't been hitting as consistently since returning from the Injured List, but he's still smashed his 31st and 32nd homers of the season in September. Arizona's offense is in need of a return to Marte's All-Star form as the stakes raise with each game.

Gabriel Moreno will get the start behind the plate for the second game in a row as he returns to pre-injury form. He recorded two base hits and an RBI in Wednesday's game, and the D-backs will be glad to have his defense back behind home plate more consistently.

Pavin Smith gets the start in left field, as he continues to hit very well in his limited role. He's raised his season slash to .297/.382/.577, with seven homers and 31 RBI in just 111 at-bats. He's seeing the ball well and making hard contact, especially facing right-hand starters.