D-backs Manager Torey Lovullo Offers Insight on Lineup Changes Tonight

Ryne Nelson Kicks Off Huge Series Against Blue Jays in Must-Win Game as the team strives to get over .500 once again.

Jul 2, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) pitches during the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports / Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a thrilling and anxiety-inducing 1-0 victory over the Atlanta Braves as they split the four-game series. Now, they start a new series against the Toronto Blue Jays. First pitch tonight is at 6:40 PM local AZ time.

The D-backs look to finish the first half strong before the All-Star Break commences after this three game series against the Blue Jays. They are 6-4 in their last ten games against powerhouse teams like the Dodgers, Padres, and Braves.

This has the Diamondbacks back at .500 at 47-47. They are now just a game behind the Mets and Padres who are tied for the third Wild Card spot. They are also just 2.0 games back of the Cardinals for the 2nd Wild Card spot.

Arizona could get over .500 for the first time since April 3rd. The D-backs have come close numerous times, but have yet to get over the hump. Winning tonight would be a big accomplishment and give plenty of momentum for the team.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have endured a tough season, but they are 4-1 over their last five games. The lone loss was a walk-off wild pitch against the Giants earlier this week. They just took a series in San Francisco.

On the season, they are 43-50 and in last place in the AL East. They are 8.5 games back of a Wild Card spot and appear to be likely sellers. Expect to see plenty of scouts in the stands.

Starting Lineups

The Toronto Blue Jays and Arizona Diamondbacks starting lineups for July 12th, 2024 at Chase Field. / Jake Oliver

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Ketel Marte are both out of the lineup tonight. Gurriel Jr. is out due to a sore left shoulder as he missed yesterday's game with that issue. Marte needed a day off to rest as Manager Torey Lovullo said he didn't want to overwork him ahead of his very busy All-Star Break.

Lovullo spoke on Gurriel Jr., "He's feeling much better. He'll be available off the bench...I've asked a lot of Lourdes...I've asked a lot of the guys, I've kind of full-throttled them when I should've backed off of them for one or two games...Those are lessons that I keep learning."

Gurriel Jr.'s injury stemmed from swinging and not any particular play or injury.

Corbin Carroll gets the start over Jake McCarthy despite McCarthy excelling right now and Carroll struggling. McCarthy is hitting .273 in July while Carroll is hitting .180.

Lovullo said "I'm still really invested in Corbin," which leads one to believe that is why Carroll is in the lineup and leading off today. Lovullo liked the idea of having a left-handed bat on the bench and mentioned that Grichuk lines up well against Yariel Rodriguez.

Eugenio Suarez is in the lineup and will look to stay hot at the plate. Over the last seven games, he's hit .333/.407/.792/1.199 with three walks, eight hits, three homers, 10 RBI, and just five strikeouts.

Similarly, Geraldo Perdomo is on fire as well. He's hitting .381/.375/.571/.946 over that same span. He has eight hits, three RBI, and two doubles.

The Blue Jays have seen frigid cold numbers from stars Justin Turner, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, and Bo Bichette the last seven days. Varsho has hit .143 while Turner has hit .063. Guerrero Jr. has hit .160 and Bichette is hitting just .111.

However, Turner has raked at Chase Field in the past from his Dodgers days. Guerrero Jr. is an All-Star, and Varsho makes his first return trip back to Arizona since being traded in the Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. trade.

Kevin Newman is hitting .333 over the last seven games too. Joc Pederson is still just one homer away from 200 for his career.

Christian Walker will look to snap out of the slump he is in. Over his last seven games, he has 14 strikeouts and is just 4-28 at the plate. The Arizona Diamondbacks will hope that he gets going as they will need his bat this series.

Starting Pitchers

Ryne Nelson, RHP, 6-6, 5.08 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 54 Strikeouts in 79.2 Innings

If you look at Nelson's FIP, he's been a tad unlucky to have such a high ERA. However, just because he limits walks and homers, 20 and 10 respectively, that doesn't mean he doesn't get hit. He has given up an eye-popping 98 hits.

When one gives up just that many hits, it's hard to curtail runs or prevent them at a reasonable rate.

Nelson has pitched extremely well in the month of July. Since giving up six runs on June 26th against the Twins, Nelson has allowed just two runs in 11.2 innings with nine hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts.

In fact, in four of his last five starts, Nelson has allowed two or fewer runs. That's a surprising run of consistency from a pitcher that is often seen as struggling more than not.

There are two things that will prevent tonight from being a success or will be a success if Nelson can overcome them. The first is how he does against right-handed batters.

Right-handers are hitting .350 with an OPS of .919 against him this year. However, lefties are hitting just .259 against him. If Nelson can navigate the Blue Jays right-handed heavy lineup successfully, tonight will be a great start.

The other factor is overcoming the Chase Field issue. Similar to last year, Nelson has had quite a few issues pitching in Chase Field unlike other stadiums. When he pitches away, he has an ERA of 3.83 over 44.2 innings.

At Chase Field, he has an eye-popping 6.69 ERA over just 35 innings. Nelson has to learn how to pitch at home and if he can manage it tonight, he will put the D-backs in good shape to win the ballgame.

Yariel Rodriguez, RHP, 1-3, 3.68 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 29 Strikeouts in 29.1 Innings

Rodriguez is only making his eighth start in the majors in his career. He's been good so far. He's limited hitters to just .222 average.

Over his last two starts, Rodriguez has had two quality starts and allowed just one run over 12.2 innings. Despite that success, that was the first time that Rodriguez pitched more than four innings.

Rodriguez has struggled away from Toronto. He has a 4.70 ERA over 15.1 innings with 12 hits, nine runs, eight walks, and 16 strikeouts. He will walk batters as evidenced by his 4.6 BB/9 so D-backs hitters will have to be patient.

Rodriguez throws a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, curveball and a rare splitter.

Bullpen

For the Diamondbacks, Paul Sewald, Ryan Thompson, and Kevin Ginkel are likely all shut down today. They have pitched each of the last two days and have been used a lot over the last two weeks. Joe Mantiply might be down as well since he has pitched four of the last six days.

Expect to see Bryce Jarvis, who hasn't pitched in four days, Justin Martinez, and the return of Miguel Castro tonight.