D-backs Need Quality Start from Nelson vs Justin Verlander, Astros

Arizona is beginning to slide towards non-contention. Right-hander Ryne Nelson will have the task of preventing that once again facing Justin Verlander and the Astros.

Sep 3, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) gestures as he walks off the field after throwing against the San Francisco Giants during the fourth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-Imagn Images / John Hefti-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are not looking like the scorching hot team they have been. Another lackluster game from both the offense and the pitching staff resulted in a 11-5 beatdown at the hands of the Astros.

Sunday night, on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball, they'll face the Astros for the final time, in an attempt to salvage a series down 0-2 already.

The D-backs are 79-64, and holding a very thin lead in the Wild Card race, as they're down to just 1.5 games ahead of the Mets, the first team out at the current moment. The Mets refuse to lose a game, however, and Arizona is in dire need of stringing together some wins.

As the trend has continued lately, D-backs starting pitching has been rough, to say the least. Eduardo Rodriguez was no help in reversing that trend, as he went just four innings while allowing five runs (four earned).

Sunday, the D-backs will look to right-hander Ryne Nelson, as they often have when in need of a Quality Start. Nelson continues to throw the ball exceptionally well, and consistently performs while going deep into games.

His ERA is down to 4.15, and his FIP is at 3.72. By all accounts, Nelson is an entirely different pitcher now than he was to open the year. He's walking just 2.01 batters per nine, and striking guys out at a higher rate, reaching nine strikeouts for the fourth time this season - a career high.

He pitched 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball his last time out, a relatively familiar number from the righty. That marked his fifth Quality Start in a row, and 15th game in a row walking two or fewer batters, as the D-backs went on to beat the Giants in San Francisco.

For now, there's no one better suited to turning around a rough series than Nelson, but Houston's hitters are fundamentally sound with plenty of pop. Nelson will need to have full use of his secondary pitches and sequence them well to avoid his first blowup start in nearly two months.

Across from Nelson is one of baseball's greats. 41-year-old veteran star right-hander Justin Verlander will make just his sixth start since landing on the Injured List in late May with a neck injury. He hasn't fared so well in his previous five starts, giving up four or more runs in all but one of said outings.

He has yet to see the sixth inning since his return, and his ERA has ballooned up to 4.52, with a 4.73 FIP. He hasn't looked like the Hall of Fame caliber arm fans may remember, and is looking for his own ace-quality start on Sunday.

Verlander features a familiar arsenal, with a mid-90s fastball, a hard slider, changeup, and his signature 78 mph curveball. None of them have particularly high run values as of now, but the pitch can still be a deadly strikeout weapon, and he's mostly limited hard contact.

Don't be fooled. Just because Verlander is down, doesn't mean he's out. He's still a dangerous arm, and the D-backs will have to be quite selective about the pitches they want to hit to avoid racking up whiffs and allowing Verlander to cruise.

Lineups

Game 144.

📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/WCs9YiGb7q

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 8, 2024

The D-backs' offense is still dangerous, but there hasn't been as much of a late-inning surge in their last two losses. While they're still scoring runs at a solid pace, the struggles of the pitching staff has poked holes in their consistency of production.

Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have combined for some rough numbers since their collective return. The duo is a combined 3-for-22, all three hits belonging to Walker. They're both out of the lineup today, as Luis Guillorme will play second base and Josh Bell will hit cleanup and play first base.

While there is little concern that they will be able to get their production back up, the question is just how much time will be needed for them to break out of their return slump. There is little time remaining in the season, and the D-backs need every possible game to avoid losing out on a playoff appearance.

Eugenio Suarez hit his 25th home run of the season to pull within one on Saturday. He's now slashing .244/.314/.458, and the Crawford Boxes in Houston's left field provide a similar service as the Green Monster at Fenway park - something Suarez has excelled at taking advantage of this year.

Although runs have come from other places in the lineup this season, Arizona needs to find a rhythm behind its stars. But with Walker and Marte both on the bench, the D-backs will simply need to find a way to keep pace with the high-powered Astros to avoid landing dangerously close to missing out on a playoff spot.

The Astros will run out more or less the same lineup that has crushed D-backs pitching the first two games. The red hot Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez bat one and two, and Kyle Tucker is back in the lineup for the second time since returning from the injured list

Series Finale.

⚾️: 6:10pm
🏟️: Closed
📺: @espn
🎙️: @SportsTalk790 | @ESPNRadio | Spanish: 93.3 FM #Relentless x @reliantenergy pic.twitter.com/mr8IS6MUFl

— Houston Astros (@astros) September 8, 2024