D-backs Place Faith in Pfaadt to Win Tuesday Vs Giants

Brandon Pfaadt will need to be phenomenal and the D-backs offense needs to bounce back in must-win game

Sep 19, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are back at Chase Field for another must-win game against the San Francisco Giants with a situation that is dire after two tough losses in a row. Game time is at 6:40 p.m. with Brandon Pfaadt against Giants ace Logan Webb.

The Diamondbacks are 87-70 and likely will need at least 90 wins to ensure a spot in the playoffs. The Mets are in the second Wild Card spot at 87-69. The Atlanta Braves are 85-71 and are 1.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot.

Luckily for Arizona, the Mets and Braves are starting a three game series Tuesday evening in which it would behoove the D-backs to root for the Mets as they need the Braves to lose as many games as possible since the magic number is five. That's five wins and losses combined, so if the Braves lose three times, then it would be good.

Meanwhile, both the Braves and Mets have the tiebreaker over Arizona so the D-backs must finish a game over either of them, hence the need for the Mets to beat Atlanta and give Arizona as much cushion as possible heading into the final series of the season this weekend.

The Braves play the Royals following the Mets series. The Royals are fresh off a seven-game losing streak and are going to be playing as hard as they can for their own playoff spot in the American League. That will help the D-backs.

The Mets are facing the Brewers after their series in Atlanta. The Brewers are already division winners but they seem hungry to keep playing and winning games and enter the playoffs on a hot streak.

There is one more factor that could change this schedule around and cause headaches for Arizona too. That is Tropical Storm Helene, which is scheduled to hit Atlanta on Thursday, the finale between Mets and Braves. It could develop into a hurricane and force MLB to move the finale.

If they move it to earlier in the day, it still runs into the risk of rain or they could force both teams to do a doubleheader on Wednesday. The absolute worst case would be if they do nothing and it gets rained out and forces both teams to play on Monday to end the season.

This would put the D-backs in a potential state of peril if the Braves are close enough to potentially clinch a playoff berth in that game if they win. It would be a cruel way for Arizona to miss out on the playoffs so this is a storyline to watch.

Brandon Pfaadt is pitching Tuesday night. He is 10-9 with a 4.66 ERA and 3.57 FIP, indicating that he's been extremely unlucky to have such a high ERA. Pfaadt has pitched better than the base stats show as he has allowed just 39 walks, 22 homers, and has struck out 172 in 173.2 innings.

His last start against the Brewers was magical, as he twirled seven innings of one-run ball and struck out a career high 12 batters with just two hits allowed and no walks. He shut down their bats and located his fastball extremely well at the top of the zone to enable plenty of whiffs.

He will have to repeat what he did so well last time out in order to be the stopper the Diamondbacks need and get them a badly-needed win.

Logan Webb, the long-time ace of the Giants, pitches Tuesday evening for them. The lethal sinker-changeup combination has once again been brilliant this season for Webb.

On the season, he's 12-10 with a 3.58 ERA and 2.95 FIP while leading the league in innings with 198.2. He's made all 32 starts this year and has walked 49 with 11 homers and struck out 169. He limits hard-contact and induces plenty of ground balls.

He has been much worse on the road this year with a 4.36 ERA and has allowed 49 runs in 17 starts 97 innings. Opponents have a .726 OPS against him on the road.

Since August 27th, Webb has struggled. Over five games and 26 innings, he has a 6.58 ERA and 4.32 FIP while allowing 33 hits, 20 runs, eight walks, and striking out 23. Opponents have an .826 OPS during this frame so there is hope Arizona can hit him. He's gone five innings or shorter in three of those starts.

Starting Lineups

Game 158.https://t.co/epBmrbYHsx | https://t.co/k9Xjx1ui6d pic.twitter.com/xTZEGEGhAt

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 24, 2024

Per the Diamondbacks game notes, the Diamondbacks average 5.36 runs per game, while the Giants sport a +7 run differential.

Ketel Marte's 13 first-inning homers are tied for the most in a season by a D-backs player
with Paul Goldschmidt.

Since July 10, the D-backs are 24-7 when both Marte and Corbin Carroll start a game, including five of their last six games. Of their last 14 home games together, they are 12-2 when they start.

Eugenio Suarez is one homer and two RBI away from reaching his fifth career 30/100 HR-RBI season and could do it Tuesday with one swing of the bat.

Gabriel Moreno makes his return to the lineup after missing Monday's game and leaving Sunday's game mid-way through. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. returns to the lineup after missing Monday's game as well.