D-backs to Face Pirates Rookie Sensation Paul Skenes in Rubber Match

Ryne Nelson will have a tough task trying to out pitch Paul Skenes in the series finale at PNC Park

Jul 29, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) delivers a pitch during the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks are finally going to face Pittsburgh Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes in this the sixth and final game of the season series between the two teams. He'll be opposed by one of the hottest D-backs pitchers in Ryne Nelson. First pitch is 10:35 A.M. MST, 1:35 P.M. EST

The series at PNC Park this weekend is knotted at one game a piece. The D-backs won the opener in a 9-8 thriller, while the Pirates prevailed 4-2 in Saturday's rain delayed game.

Paul Skenes RHP: 6-1, 1.90 ERA, 2.65 FIP in 80.2 IP

First the good news. The Pirates are 9-4 in games started by Skenes. It is possible to win a game started by the phenom. The bad news is that it took limiting the Pirates to just one run in three of those games, as they lost 3-1 to Tampa Bay, 2-1 to the Braves, and 2-1 to the Cardinals.

In the fourth Pirates loss in a Skenes start he came out of the game having allowed just one run in six innings, but Pittsburgh lost 7-6 to the Giants. Skenes himself has allowed just three runs twice this season, May 11th against the Cubs and June 5th against the Dodgers. He's allowed just two runs or fewer in his other 11 starts.

Skenes throws both a four seam and a sinker, a slider and a curveball. The four seamer averages 99 MPH and often tops 100. The sinker is almost an off speed pitch for him, as it averages 94 MPH. The Slider actually has the lowest WHIFF rate of any of pitches, 25%, but it also induces the lowest batting average against, at .160.

Skenes gets a ton of swing and miss on both his fastballs, but he is also a strike thrower supreme. He's struck out 103 batters while walking just 16. His 68% strike rate is well above the league average 64%

There is no daylight in his platoon splits. Right hand batters have hit .203 with a .570 OPS against him. Left hand batters just .193 B.A., .553 OPS. The only crack in his statistical armor are his home/road splits. He has a 2.70 ERA and .664 OPS against at home compared to 0.93 ERA and .429 OPS against on the road.

Ryne Nelson RHP: 8-6, 4.53 ERA, 3.76 FIP in 105.1 IP

Don't be fooled by Nelson's somewhat high ERA. Not only has he pitched better than that, as evidenced by his FIP being .77 runs lower, but he's been arguably the D-backs best pitcher over the past month.

In six July outings he threw 37.1 innings, and posted a 2.41 ERA and a 0.964 WHIP. He struck out 33 batters and walked just eight, while allowing only one home run.

Nelson has two reverse splits this year. Right-hand batters are hitting .316 with an .826 OPS against him. But left-hand batters are hitting .246 with a .734 OPS. Nelson has been better on the road, posting a 3.83 ERA in 56 away innings, compared to a 5.33 ERA in 49 innings at Chase Field.

Since May 29th Nelson has thrown at least five innings in 11 of his last 13 outings and pitched into the seventh inning or later seven times. That's saved the bullpen on multiple occasions.

LINEUPS

D-backs at Pirates Lineups August 4th / Jack Sommers

The D-backs are going with their all left-handed outfield, giving Lourdes Gurriel Jr. the day off. As is custom, Jose Herrera is in at catcher on a day game following a night.

Andrew McCutchen was removed from Saturday night's game with quad tightness and is day to day. Joey Bart takes over at DH getting the day off from catching duties. He had a homer and an RBI single Saturday night. In five game against the D-backs this year he's batting 6-15, .400 with three walks and five RBI.

Yasmani Grandal has become Skenes personal catcher, getting the start behind the plate in 11 of Skenes 13 outings.

Bullpens

Both bullpens have thrown a lot of pitches the last two games. The Diamondbacks relievers have thrown 166 pitches while the Pirates bullpen has used up 154 pitches.

Most of Arizona's high leverage relievers should be available however, as none of them had to work Saturday. Pirates closer David Bednar needed 23 pitches to lock down the save Saturday.