Diamondbacks Aim to Win Series vs Royals with Ryne Nelson Leading Charge

The D-backs have won or tied six series in a row and aim for a seventh if Ryne Nelson can out-duel Michael Wacha.

Jul 19, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks are fresh off a 6-2 victory over the Royals that snapped a two-game losing streak. The D-backs needed that win as the Padres, Cardinals, and Mets all won. Arizona remains a game back of the third Wild Card spot.

The D-backs need to win every game they can right now to maintain their positioning for the Wild card and to entice GM Mike Hazen to buy at the deadline rather than thread the needle or sell. Right now, they are 52-50 and will need to climb a bit more above .500.

If they can win tonight and take two of three against the Pirates, the D-backs will be in great shape heading into the deadline, but they need to win tonight. The first pitch of the series finale against the Royals is at 5:10 PM local AZ time.

Starting Pitchers

Ryne Nelson, RHP, 7-6, 4.78 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 68 Strikeouts in 92.1 Innings

After struggling in June, Nelson has been dominant through four starts in July. He's getting whiffs, locating his pitches on the edges, and pitching deep into games while limiting hits and runs. It's what Pitching Coach Brent Strom has told us to expect and it's finally happening.

Over his last four games against tough offenses and 24.1 innings, Nelson has a 2.22 ERA and 2.36 FIP. That means that he is getting the results he deserves and it isn't entirely luck. Plus, he has struck out 22 batters, allowed just one homer, and opponents are hitting just .195 against him.

This was done against teams like the Dodgers and Padres. Plus, Nelson is limiting walks and homers, a key component to finding success as a pitcher with just 22 and 10, respectively.

Nelson will have to continue to find success against right-handed batters as he has allowed them to hit .328 against him so far. However, in reverse splits, lefties are hitting just .245 against him.

Another factor that might portend success and something that Nelson will have to keep doing is his performance on the road. He's been vastly better on the road than at home.

Over his 50.1 innings on the road, he has a 3.58 ERA. That's across 10 games and eight starts, indicating that he's averaging over five innings an appearance. The D-backs will be hoping he can pitch six or more innings tonight, something he's done in four of his last seven starts.

In order to find success tonight, Nelson will have to locate his changeup and land his cutter to mix with his elite fastball. If he can do that, he can keep the Royals' speed off base and limit Bobby Witt Jr.'s impact.

Michael Wacha, RHP, 7-6, 3.55 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 85 Strikeouts in 96.1 Innings

Wacha has been having an impressive season in his first year with KC. He's limited his walks to just 28 and homers to 9 while missing bats and pitching deep into games, 5 2/3 innings average per game. His ERA+ is 120, 100 is league average.

Plus, he has been fantastic over his last five starts. Over those 28.1 innings, Wacha has pitched to a 1.91 ERA and 3.42 FIP with six earned runs, eight walks, and 29 strikeouts. The D-backs will have their hands full with him tonight.

At home, over 45.2 innings, Wacha has pitched to a 2.96 ERA with 43 hits, two homers, 13 walks, and 41 strikeouts.

He can be hit by left-handed batters. They've hit .263 with a .772 OPS against him. However, he's devastated right-handers with that curveball of his as they've hit just .225 and have a .596 OPS against him.

The D-backs will need Ketel Marte, Joc Pederson, Corbin Carroll and company to carry the load offensively and come up with timely and clutch hits.

Starting Lineups

Lineups for rubber match in KC pic.twitter.com/KXqsfEZWJy

— Jody Jackson (@Jody_Jackson) July 24, 2024

Jose Herrera starts for Gabriel Moreno as is normal for the third game in a series. Ketel Marte looks to homer for the third game in a row after homering twice already in the Kansas City series.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. gets the day off so that manager Torey Lovullo can get as many lefties in the lineup as possible and Jake McCarthy will manage left field and look to get another triple.

The D-backs will seek to limit Bobby Witt Jr. again after limiting him to just a double yesterday.