Diamondbacks Back at Home to Take on Twins in Must-Win Series

Brandon Pfaadt faces off against Joe Ryan in a game that looks like a must-win if the D-backs are to stay close in the Wild Card Race.

Jun 7, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) delivers during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-USA TODAY Sports at Petco Park. / Denis Poroy-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks are back at Chase Field to take on the Minnesota Twins in a series that has big implications for the Wild Card standings of both the National League and American League. Both teams are fighting for a Wild Card spot in their respective leagues. Game time is at 6:40 PM local Arizona time.

The D-backs are 38-40 and in third place in the NL West. While it's unlucky they catch the Dodgers, In the Wild Card, they are 1.5 games back of the rival Padres who are 42-41. They are just 2.5 games back of the Cardinals.

Over their last 10 games, Arizona is 6-4 despite dropping their last two games against the Phillies. They are -4 in run differential. However, they are 13-8 in June, taking advantage of an easier schedule.

The Twins are 43-35 and have one of the better offenses in the league. Their pitching has been good as well although the D-backs are avoiding their best two pitchers in Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober. The Twins are in the second Wild Card spot in the AL. They're a half-game up on the Red Sox.

They're 7-3 over their last ten games and have won two in a row. They're +25 in run differential indicating a solid ability to score runs and prevent runs to this point in the season.

Starting Pitchers

Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, 3-6, 4.37 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 84 strikeouts in 90.2 innings

Pfaadt has pitched pretty well this season and been a stabilizing force for Arizona's injured rotation. He has provided consistent innings, pitching six or more innings in 11 of his 15 starts this year. The D-backs would not be where they are without his innings.

His FIP indicates that he's been rather unlucky to have such a high ERA or poor win-loss record. He has limited walks to just 22 while allowing only 11 homers. That's a vast improvement from last year. In 96 innings last year, he allowed 22.

Pfaadt has been excellent his last two starts, despite not recording a strikeout in his most recent start for the first time this season. Over his last 12.1 innings, Pfaadt has given up just four runs with seven walks and eight strikeouts.

At Chase Field this year, Pfaadt has pitched far better than on the road. Over six home starts and 37 innings, he has just a 3.41 ERA with 36 hits given up, 14 earned runs, seven walks, and 37 strikeouts. With Tucker Barnhart behind the plate, Pfaadt has a 3.38 ERA over 24 innings compared to Moreno who he has 4.72 ERA with over 66.2 innings.

Joe Ryan, RHP, 5-5, 3.13 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 95 strikeouts in 92 innings

Ryan has never faced the D-backs, so this will be a first meeting for both sides. Ryan has pitched quite well for the Twins, limiting runs, hits, and walks while ranking among the league leaders in strikeouts. He's given up just 73 hits and 15 walks all season.

Since giving up five runs June 1st, Ryan has pitched excellent over his following three starts. Over his last 20 innings, Ryan has allowed just 11 hits, five runs, four walks, and struck out 18. He has given up 14 homers on the year and allowed three in his last three starts.

Ryan throws five pitches, a four seamer, sweeper, split finger, slider, and sinker. His slider and sinker can be hit, as they've been hit for a .333 batting average apiece. However, none of his other three pitches have been hit for a higher average than .222.

The D-backs will have their work cut out for them with Joe Ryan, but if they can overcome his pitches, it will only help build confidence for them.

Starting Lineups

The Minnesota Twins and Arizona Diamondbacks starting lineups for June 25th, 2024. / Jake Oliver

Barnhart is behind the plate with Moreno still on the 10-Day IL due to his left thumb sprain. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will look to stay hot as he has five multi-hit games in a row.

The D-backs offense has been hot in June at Chase Field. Over 9 games in June, the D-backs are
batting .301 (90-for-299) as a team at home with 6.56 runs per game, the second-best home average and runs per game this month in the Majors per the Team's game notes.

Corbin Carroll will look to stay hot at home. He's reached base safely in 10 straight home games. Over that span, he has a .372 OBP with nine hits and six walks with 3 doubles, 2 triples, 3 RBI and 2 stolen bases.

Joc Pederson is hitting .345 over his last 10 games and has three homers and 11 RBI in that span.

Ketel Marte continues to vie for the starting All-Star spot at second base after he took the lead in the most recent balloting. If you want to support his run, vote by clicking here. He's been hot in June, hitting .314 with a .969 OPS, five homers, 14 RBI, 10 walks, and just 16 strikeouts over 19 games.