Diamondbacks go for Sweep Vs. Cubs Behind Brandon Pfaadt

A pitcher's duel could be on tap at Wrigley field when Pfaadt faces Shota Imanaga

Jul 6, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks (51-48) are going for the sweep against the Chicago Cubs (47-53) in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field Sunday afternoon. First pitch is 11:20 A.M. MST, 1:20 CT. The D-backs have held the Cubs to just two runs in the series so far, winning 5-2 on Friday and 3-0 Saturday

Pitching Matchup

This series finale shapes up as another low scoring game. Cubs starter Shota Imanaga (8-2, 2.97) and Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (4-6, 3.97) will square off with the potential for a true pitchers duel.

The two starters share a very similar trait. They both throw a high spin four seam fastball from a low release point. That makes the pitch extremely effective. In Imanaga's case, despite averaging only 92 MPH, the pitch has a great deal of ride, making it appear to sink less as it approaches the batter.

The 30 year old Japanese rookie's fastball ranks in the 93rd percentile according to Baseball Savant, with +10 positive run value. In more traditional terms, hitters are batting just .213 with a .376 slug against the pitch. He pairs that with a devasting splitter that garners a 40% WHIFF rate.

The key for the Diamondbacks hitters is find a way to lay off fastballs in the top third the zone. Hitters are batting just .158 against his four seamers in that part of the strike zone. They can't let their eyes be tricked by the pitch, as it won't drop as much as they expect. Hitters do better the third time they see Imanaga as the deception of the pitch becomes less effective.

Shota Imanaga Times Through Order / Jack Sommers

For more about this intriguing aspect on the four seamer, I recommend Tom Verducci's excellent article.

Similarly, Pfaadt has a +7 run value on his fastball, which is in the 84th percentile. He's allowed a .246 BA against on four seamers, but only three homers, leading to just a .388 slugging percentage. Pfaadt's trade mark sweeper meanwhile has been very effective in getting outs, as hitters are batting just .186 when putting the ball in play.

The problem for Pfaadt comes when he misplaces the sweeper in the strike zone, which he's done a bit too frequently, leading to nine homers in 146 PA against the pitch. Pfaadt is a strike thrower supreme, (67.5% vs. MLB avg 64.5%) which allows him to get deeper into games. On days when he's getting ahead and avoids hanging a mistake sweeper he pitches like an Ace starter.

Lineup

D-backs at Cubs Lineups July 21 / Jack Sommers

Many will be perplexed as to why Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll are on the bench today after homering yesterday. But neither of them hit left-hand pitching well, and Imanaga is very tough on left hand batters. Meanwhile Jake McCarthy and Randal Grichuk hit lefties well, and McCarthy has yet to play in this series.

Kevin Newman gets a start at second base, and Ketel Marte moves to DH, while Jose Herrera gets a Sunday start behind the plate in place of Gabriel Moreno after a night game. Hererra is 7-for-19, .368 with four RBI and three walks in 24 PA since replacing Tucker Barnhart as the backup catcher.

The only change for the Cubs lineup from Saturday is Tomas Nido back in at catcher and batting eighth in place of Miguel Amaya. Facing Brandon Pfaadt Dansby Swanson is 4-for-8 with a homer and Mike Tauchman is 3-for-6 with a double and a walk.

Bullpens

The D-backs will really need length out of Pfaadt. Paul Sewald, Ryan Thompson, Justin Martinez, and Kevin Ginkel have each worked two games in a row. That means Arizona will need to rely on their "B" bullpen to get them through the end of the game. Expect Joe Mantiply, Miguel Castro, and Bryce Jarvis to get the leverage innings if there is an opportunity.

The Cubs meanwhile have not had to use their closer Hector Neris, or set up man on the rise Porter Hodge. Tyson Miller only threw 13 pitches yesterday. The Cubs may have an advantage over the final few innings. They won't have a lefty to deploy in late innings however, so look for a Corbin Carroll pinch hit at bat at some point from the seventh inning on.