Merrill Kelly Looks to Build Momentum vs Rangers

The D-backs will hope to see more of Kelly's consistency as they hope to sweep their former World Series opponents in a two-game set.

Sep 5, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) pitches during the second inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images / Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks will finish a short two-game set on Wednesday afternoon, taking on the Texas Rangers for the final time in the 2024 regular season. First pitch is at 12:40 p.m. Arizona time.

Tuesday night's contest saw a brilliantly pitched game by Zac Gallen and the bullpen, as the D-backs shut out the Rangers for a 6-0 victory.

Perhaps more important, however, were the two home runs slammed by first baseman Christian Walker, who has struggled to find his power swing since returning from the Injured List.

Arizona is 81-64, in sole possession of the second Wild Card spot, a game behind the Padres and two games up on the Mets and Braves.

After five inefficient, but extremely effective shutout innings from ace starter Zac Gallen, the D-backs will look to their mainstay Merrill Kelly to continue his upward trajectory and get the rotation back into a familiarly solid rhythm.

Kelly hasn't looked much like the pitcher D-backs fans know him to be since returning from his lengthy stint on the Injured List. His ERA has spiked to 4.08, reaching 6.75 for the month of August. He's been bit by a handful of home runs, catapulting his FIP above his ERA to 4.69.

That said, his last outing was a step in the right direction. Facing the San Francisco Giants, his command looked much sharper, as he cruised for seven innings of two-run ball, striking out eight without a walk. Both runs came as a result of weak contact and poor batted ball luck.

As a whole, Kelly looked nearly like his old self again, and he'll need to have a similar outing today against an aggressive offense with enough firepower to do serious damage.

The Rangers are sending young left-hander Cody Bradford to the mound. The D-backs are a mere 24-29 against left-handed starters this season, but not for lack of being able to hit them.

Bradford profiles as one of the more unique arms on the Rangers' staff. While he throws a relatively standard four-seam, changeup, curve and slider (with a very occasional cutter), his four-seamer averages barely 90 MPH, yet it's his best pitch, with a +9 run value according to Baseball Savant.

He doesn't rack up many strikeouts, and his ground ball rate is a well below-average 34.5%. He's a fly ball pitcher who tends to pound the upper inside corner of the zone with his fastball against right-hand hitters. His fly ball rate is 49.4%, over 11% above the league average 38%, seventh-best among MLB starters.

And it's worked so far, as he's pitched to a solid 3.05 ERA and 3.37 FIP, though he's only pitched 62 innings this season due to a long stint on the Injured List with a low back strain. He's only made eight starts since returning, but he's been dominant, throwing five straight Quality Starts.

Chase Field is certainly a favorable environment for a pitcher like Bradford, as it's difficult to hit home runs, while the hitter-friendly gaps in the outfield are neutralized if too much air is put under the ball. The lefty excels at forcing opponents to do just that, but he'll face a challenge with the D-backs' potent lineup.

Arizona's right-hand bats have done quite well with fastballs in that location. They're hitting .340 against such pitches in 2024, second best in MLB, and they're slugging a monstrous .723 (also second best).

Lineups

Game 146.https://t.co/epBmrbYHsx | https://t.co/k9Xjx1ui6d pic.twitter.com/NiPa76aRFY

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 11, 2024

Ketel Marte is the D-backs' best bat against the above-mentioned pitch and location. Though he's only had nine plate appearances seeing them, he's hitting .667 and slugging 1.444 in the small sample size.

As the All-Star second baseman has yet to record a hit since returning from injury, this could offer him the opportunity to burst out of his three-game slump, and Arizona certainly hopes to see his bat get hot as soon as possible.

Randal Grichuk will play left field in Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s absence. He's come alive with a 1.292 OPS and three homers in September, though his opportunities have remained few and far between. More on Grichuk's role and recent power surge here.

Josh Bell will get a turn at DH, with Walker playing first base and looking to build off his huge two-homer game Tuesday night. Otherwise, it's a mixed bag as far as handedness goes for the D-backs, with young catcher Adrian Del Castillo getting the start behind the plate.

Arizona will have another off day on Thursday, before taking on the Milwaukee Brewers at home in a three-game series beginning Friday at 6:40 p.m.

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