Merrill Kelly Must Carry Forward D-backs' Momentum

The Diamondbacks have been on a roll as Merrill Kelly looks to add to his recent success since returning from the IL.

Sep 16, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Diamondbacks have found their rhythm lately to restore their playoff aspirations. The D-backs look to win the four-game series Saturday in Milwaukee after taking the first two in its final road series of the '24 season. First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. Arizona time.

After losing 8 of their first 15 games in September, the team has gotten back on track. Arizona has won its last three games and now holds a 86-68 record. The team's playoff outlook has brightened considerably with its good play of late.

Arizona now holds the second N.L. Wild Card slot, sandwiched between the Padres and the Mets, who are one game below the Diamondbacks for the final playoff spot.

The Mets are two games in front of the Braves, who are out of the playoffs entering Saturday's matchups. The Mets and Braves play a critical series against each other next week, which could help clear up the playoff picture in the National League.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Zac Gallen pitched well to help Arizona's three-game win streak, and Kelly looks to continue the rotation's streak of solid performances as the team enters the final stretch.

D-backs Lineup

Game 155. https://t.co/epBmrbY9CZ | https://t.co/k9Xjx1tKgF pic.twitter.com/4nz5EQDvIu

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 21, 2024

Lined up to be his second-to-last start of the '24 season, Kelly seeks to finish the season strong after missing a good chunk of it to injury. Less than a month into this season, the Diamondbacks placed Kelly on the injured list with a right shoulder strain. He ended up missing nearly four months, coming back just after the season entered its second half.

With a 4-0 record this season, Merrill Kelly has not lost a game yet in 2024, and he'll look to extend that streak Saturday afternoon.

Kelly got back into the swing of things rather quickly. In his first start back on August 11th versus the division-leading Phillies, Kelly delivered a quality start as Arizona came out on top.

However, a series of rough performances followed the right-hander for the rest of August. He allowed at least seven hits on four earned runs in each of the three outings. Lots of those runs came from home runs, as Kelly allowed six long balls on 78 batters faced (7.7% of the time).

Kelly has settled down since his September slump. In two of his three starts since then, Kelly lasted at at least six innings and give up two or fewer runs. The other start, September 11th hosting the Rangers, was less promising. Kelly exited the game after throwing just 65 pitches due to cramping in his right hamstring.

However, there's minimal concern, as Kelly has dealt with the same issue multiple times at Chase Field dating back to last season.

This month, Kelly bettered his susceptibility to the long ball. In three outings, Kelly's allowed just two homers on 67 batters faced for just 3% of the time, cutting down the rate by over double compared to the previous month.

Kelly's improvement in limiting hard contact is also reflected in opponents' decline in their Barrel rate. In September, hitters' 16.9% Barrel rate versus Kelly ranked the worst in baseball among 100-plus qualified starters, per Fangraphs' leaderboard. Since then, Kelly's Barrel rate has decreased considerably to 6.4%, nearly a third of his rate the previous month.

Brewers Lineup

Win tonight

📺: @BallySportWI
📻: @620wtmj #ThisIsMyCrew X @fleet_farm pic.twitter.com/wNAKJZZEQL

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) September 21, 2024

Homers will still be something to look at for. In the last 30 days, the Brewers have hit the third-most homers in baseball (41), behind the Dodgers then D-backs, per Fangraphs. Jackson Chourio has generated the most buzz for the Brewers offense.

After a slow start to his rookie season, the former coveted prospect has lead the Brewers' offense to its first division lead, batting to a team-best 156 wRC+ since the All-Star break.

On Arizona's side, Eugenio Suarez holds the most plate appearances versus Civale with 15, though he's still favored poorly with six strikeouts and just one single in the small sample.

Civale, acquired by the Brewers from the Rays at the trade deadline, has a diverse arsenal, throwing five types of pitches at least 10% of the time. His sinker has been his primary pitch this season, but he's thrown it less lately on account of its poor .342 xWOBA this season.

The cutter has been his go-to lately and has been effective. Since July, the pitch has rendered a 29.3% whiff rate and .239 xwOBA in 54 plate appearances.

Among everyone in Arizona's lineup, Joc Pederson has done best versus cutters this season in terms of his team-high Run Value (+9) and .610 wOBA. The team as a whole has performed quite well versus cutters this season, batting to a league-leading +26 Batter Run Value. The distance between them and second place is the same from second to seventh, per Baseball Savant's search tool.