Merrill Kelly Needs a Return to Form, Elite Command vs Dodgers

The D-backs will look to their veteran righty to try and build momentum anew against the Dodgers.

Aug 25, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks failed to complete a major comeback last night, losing the first game of a four-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers 10-9. Tonight, they can even the series. First pitch is at 5:10 p.m. Arizona time.

The D-backs will look to right-handed starter Merrill Kelly, as the veteran will make just his eighth start, his fourth since returning from injury.

It hasn't been exceptionally pretty for Kelly post-injury. After a solid outing in his return debut, he's given up 10 runs in his last two starts. He's struggled with command and velocity, however, after a rough beginning to his start in Boston, he did lock it down and deliver six innings of four-run ball.

That brought his ERA to 3.98 and FIP to 3.85. It hasn't been as sharp as we're used to seeing Kelly, but he told Diamondbacks ON SI that he isn't particularly concerned for the moment.

“I feel good to be back. I’d like to be a little sharper than I am right now, but obviously, I think that’s just going to take a little bit of time, get some more reps underneath my belt," Kelly said.

"But the arm feels fine, as far as health-wise and recovery and all that stuff.”

It's a massive series against an NL West rival. The Dodgers are tough outs, as always, and the potential outcome of the division remains in the balance, with this series playing a critical role in determining said winner.

But Kelly said he and his teammates try to avoid looking too far into the future - rather, he just looks to attack what's in front of him.

“I just think we just focus on what’s going on in here, more than what’s going on out there. I think the hype, and the fans, and the energy, and the standings I think are all stuff that we see on TV that everybody else talks about. But I think in here, everybody just comes in every day and prepares to win that game," Kelly said.

“I think at this point in the year you can’t really think too far ahead… So the most important day is today.” 

Of course, the Dodgers have traditionally been a weak spot for Kelly. In 16 regular season starts against LA, Kelly is a dismal 0-11, with a 5.49 ERA.

But his last start against them wasn't in the regular season. In game one of 2023's NLDS, Kelly worked a masterful 6 1/3 innings, allowing just three hits, no runs and two walks while striking out five, as the D-backs cruised to an 11-2 victory.

He'll need to tap back into that postseason magic, and find better spots for his pitches to land.

Consistent command and dotting the edges are a staple of the Mainstay's game, and that top level hasn't been unlocked just yet. He'll need that command to be dialed in to take on the monstrous Dodgers lineup.

Arizona's pitching has struggled greatly of late, so they'll need some consistently solid starts from their top arms to get back on track. More on the rotation's woes from Jack Sommers here.

Across from Kelly is right-hander Gavin Stone. Stone has pitched well, with a 3.33 ERA over 24 starts. He's thrown back-to-back seven inning starts, with just one earned run between them.

However, his xERA (3.92), FIP (3.90) and xFIP (4.06) are all higher than his ERA. Though not by a large amount, this suggests that he's benefitted from good defense and batted ball luck.

Stone has a huge arsenal, featuring seven pitches. But his primary four are a decently even split between a 95 MPH four-seam/sinker combo and a hard slider and changeup. The changeup is his best pitch, with a 95th percentile run value (6).

Stone isn't much of a strikeout arm, so the D-backs will have an opportunity to hit for contact and try to create some base traffic. They've struggled with baserunning of late, however, and need to get back to their chaotic ways without running into more outs if they want to have a shot at beating the Dodgers.

Lineups

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers lineups / Alex D'Agostino, Diamondbacks ON SI

With a righty on the mound for LA, the D-backs will go with a lineup of mostly left-hand bats. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Eugenio Suarez will be the only right-handed hitters to start.

Corbin Carroll will lead off. Carroll is in the midst of a blazing-hot August, slashing .278/.345/.680, adding up to a 1.025 OPS. He's now slugging .422 on the season, with 10 homers in August alone.

One of said homers came off hall of fame lefty Clayton Kershaw, on a 67 mph curveball in last night's contest. Carroll is one of just three left-handed batters in MLB to homer off a Kershaw curveball, and the only one to do it twice, as his first came around the same time last season.

The Dodgers' top-end hitters continue to be a major difficulty. Keeping them down is crucial to undermining LA, and Arizona failed to do so last night.

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman combined for just three hits, but two of them were home runs. The deadly trio knocked in five runs, while struggling catcher Will Smith had a major night, going 3-for-4 with a walk and a home run.

The D-backs will need to pitch much closer to perfection than last night to avoid getting into an early 0-2 hole in the series.